Foresight: a new approach based on the Z-number cognitive map

Foresight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the environments of uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed framework consisted of the 3 phases: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. The main stage (foresight) focused on the role of imagination and intuition in drawing the future in the experts’ minds and depicting their perceptions above perceptions in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map influenced by variables related to the subject under study in order to determine a preferable future. The use of a Z-number concept and integrating it with fuzzy cognitive maps in the foresight-oriented decision-making space, which was mainly saturated with uncertainty and ambiguity, was one of the main strengths of the proposed framework in the current investigation. The present paper focused primarily on the evolution of expert’s knowledge with regard to the topic of foresight. The role of Z-number in various processes, from data collection to illustration, analysis, and aggregation of cognitive maps, was considered for gaining knowledge and understanding into the nature of future. Moreover, an ultimate objective was realized through identifying, aggregating, and selecting the variables from each expert’s perspective and then the relationship between each variable was determined in the main stage of foresight. Finally, the proposed framework was presented and explicated in the form of a case study, which revealed satisfactory results.

Capacitor Voltage Balancing of a Grid-Tied, Cascaded Multilevel Converter with Binary Asymmetric Voltage Levels Using an Optimal One-Step-Ahead Switching-State Combination Approach

This paper presents a novel capacitor voltage balancing control approach for cascaded multilevel inverters with an arbitrary number of series-connected H-Bridge modules (floating capacitor modules) with asymmetric voltages, tiered by a factor of two (binary asymmetric). Using a nearest-level reference waveform, the balancing approach uses a one-step-ahead approach to find the optimal switching-state combination among all redundant switching-state combinations to balance the capacitor voltages as quickly as possible. Moreover, using a Lyapunov function candidate and considering LaSalle’s invariance principle, it is shown that an offline calculated trajectory of optimal switching-state combinations for each discrete output voltage level can be used to operate (asymptotically stable) the inverter without measuring any of the capacitor voltages, achieving a novel sensorless control as well. To verify the stability of the one-step-ahead balancing approach and its sensorless variant, a demonstrator inverter with 33 levels is operated in grid-tied mode. For the chosen 33-level converter, the NPC main-stage and the individual H-bridge modules are operated with an individual switching frequency of about 1 kHz and 2 kHz, respectively. The sensorless approach slightly reduced the dynamic system response and, furthermore, the current THD for the chosen operating point was increased from 3.28 to 4.58 in comparison with that of using the capacitor voltage feedback.

Modeling and Dynamic Characteristics of a Novel High-Pressure and Large-Flow Water Hydraulic Proportional Valve

In the field of fully mechanized coal mining equipment, the hydraulic valve used in the hydraulic support is an on/off directional valve. There are many problems caused by the valve such as large pressure shock and discontinuous flow control. Therefore, a novel two-position three-way hydraulic proportional valve suitable for high-pressure and large-flow conditions is proposed to overcome the above problems. The novel valve utilizes a two-stage structure and the displacement follow-up principle is adopted between the pilot stage and the main stage to meet proportional control. In this paper, a simulation model of the novel proportional valve was established after a simplified analysis of the structural principle. Its reliability and the feasibility of the design were verified by the test results under different working conditions. Then, the step response characteristics of the proportional valve under different strokes were predicted and analyzed. Nonlinear characteristics were presented, and the closing time was shorter than the opening time because of the influence of nonlinear flow force. Under different ramp signals, the displacement of the main inlet spool was always approximately equal to the displacement of the pilot stage. Then, the motion relationship between the pilot stage and the main stage was studied, and the influence of the structural parameters on the stability was analyzed.

Gradient Boosting Machine to Assess the Public Protest Impact on Urban Air Quality

Political and economic protests build-up due to the financial uncertainty and inequality spreading throughout the world. In 2019, Latin America took the main stage in a wave of protests. While the social side of protests is widely explored, the focus of this study is the evolution of gaseous urban air pollutants during and after one of these events. Changes in concentrations of NO2, CO, O3 and SO2 during and after the strike, were studied in Quito, Ecuador using two approaches: (i) inter-period observational analysis; and (ii) machine learning (ML) gradient boosting machine (GBM) developed business-as-usual (BAU) comparison to the observations. During the strike, both methods showed a large reduction in the concentrations of NO2 (31.5–32.36%) and CO (15.55–19.85%) and a slight reduction for O3 and SO2. The GBM approach showed an exclusive potential, especially for a lengthier period of predictions, to estimate strike impact on air quality even after the strike was over. This advocates for the use of machine learning techniques to estimate an extended effect of changes in human activities on urban gaseous pollution.

Lower jaw reconstruction using a vascularized bone graft is the main stage of complex rehabilitation of a child with lower jaw osteoblastoclastoma

BACKGROUND: Jaw bone benign tumors and dysplasia in childhood often have an aggressive growth pattern, which requires early radical operations. Uneven growth and changing morphological characteristics of the childs dentofacial apparatus imply stage-by-stage bone and plastic surgery in the maxillofacial region. CLINICAL CASE: The paper presents a clinical observation of the medical rehabilitation of a patient from 5 to 24 years old with lower jaw osteoblastoclastoma following our proposed algorithm. DISCUSSION: The presented clinical observation demonstrates all the main stages of medical rehabilitation of a child with a benign lower jaw neoplasm. Along with timely and fully operative neoplasm removal, rational dental prosthetics, and dispensary observation with X-ray diagnostics play an important role in the childs growth period. All these measures were important to prevent a possible neoplasm recurrence, partially maintain the masticatory function for the growth period, and avoid secondary postoperative dental apparatus deformities. The age of repeated surgery to replace the titanium structure with autosteal tissue depends on the individual characteristics of patients. The operation can be performed, in some cases, starting from age 1617 years. CONCLUSIONS: Successful treatment of children with benign neoplasms of the lower jaw after post-resection defects is a complex multi-stage process of medical rehabilitation, of which the completion, most often, passes into the adult period.

The Phenomenon of Cognitive Polyphasia in Social Representations on the Mentally

The present study is focused on the phenomenon of cognitive polyphasia in the context of representations of mentally ill people by different groups of society. The authors put at the forefront the problem of finding the conditions for the actualization of cognitive polyphasia. The study was aimed at identifying manifestations of cognitive polyphasia in the structure of social representations (SRs) of the mentally ill in the groups of Orthodox respondents and non-believers. The sample consisted of Orthodox Christians: N = 114 (49 males and 65 females) and non-believers: N = 113 (76 males and 37 females) in the age ranges 18-23, 40-45 and 60-65 years, permanently residing in Moscow. The survey of the respondents at the main stage of the research was carried out using: (1) the authors questionnaire developed on the basis of the results of the search stage and including 29 statements; (2) a scale of self-assessed degree of religiosity; (3) a modified D. Feldes Psychological Distance Scale; (4) a modified sentence completion method; (5) the Bubbles technique and (6) a question pool for obtaining socio-demographic information. The results showed that the emotional component of SRs of the mentally ill changed their modality depending on the survey methods used. When the respondents evaluated the statements of the questionnaire, the core of SRs in both groups contained elements that were extremely sympathetic towards the mentally ill, and the statements revealing negative emotions (the possibility of contracting a mental illness or the need to isolate these people from society) were on the periphery of their representations. At the same time, the data of the projective methods showed that the negative representation background (as compared to the positive one) in relation to mentally ill people significantly predominated among both believers and non-believers. The negative representation of the mentally ill is most pronounced in the group of non-believers and reaches the highest rates in the group of 60-65-year-old respondents. We regard such ambivalence as a manifestation of cognitive polyphasia and, in particular, its variety, i.e., selective prevalence.

Assessing Japan’s Arctic Engagement during the ArCS Project (2015–2020)

As Japan is considered a non-regional actor in Arctic governance, this paper begins with analysing how Japan navigates the web of Arctic governance and how it manages to create a coherent Arctic narrative and engages with the Arctic both inside and outside the region. The present research argues that the construction of an Arctic identity is a praxis performed through time that needs to be constantly reaffirmed. To illustrate this point, the paper then uses a lateral rather than linear approach to assess the influence of the Arctic on Japan at present. This paper assesses Japan’s engagement on the main stage where Arctic governance is performed (i.e. The Arctic Council) since the release of Japan’s Arctic Policy and under the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability project, Japan’s flagship program for Arctic research. Looking to the future, countries such as Japan who are willing to be involved in all parts of Arctic governance will have to make a choice about what kind of Arctic relationships they want to create and in which of these relationships Japan could invest more.

Results of Cluster Analysis of Semantic Features “What is the Person’s Gender? and “What is the Person’s Appearance?” for the Stimulus “Flirting Person””

The present work continues a series of studies concerning ludic competence/ playfulness by means of psycholinguistic instruments and is devoted to description of the behaviour pattern of the ludic position “Diplomat”, which corresponds to flirting as one of the components of playfulness. The key research method is psycholinguistic experiment whose main stage is the controlled association experiment (CAE) with the stimulus “flirting person”. The sample consisted of 215 young respondents (age 21-35). The instructions for the controlled association experiment was developed in the frame of the parametric concept of I.A. Sternin. 23 questions (semantic features) were formulated. They were recognized as relevant to communication for the stimulus “flirting person” and allowed to obtain the material for describing the behaviour pattern of ludic position Diplomat (“flirting person”) reflecting the reality of linguistic consciousness of native speakers. This study presents the results of cluster analysis of two association fields built for the following semantic features: “What is the person’s gender?” and “What is the person’s appearance?”. The results of cluster analysis of the association field built for the semantic feature “What is the person’s gender?” indicate that in the linguistic consciousness of the inhabitants of Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of respondents (93%) accept the binary concept of gender, for 3% of respondents gender does not matter, and only one respondent considers the transgender identity. The analysis of the association field built for the semantic feature “What is the person’s appearance?” allows us to assert that the absolute majority of respondents (78%) demonstrates an emotionally positive attitude towards “flirting person”.

Search Methods for Continuous Gravitational-Wave Signals from Unknown Sources in the Advanced-Detector Era

Continuous gravitational waves are long-lasting forms of gravitational radiation produced by persistent quadrupolar variations of matter. Standard expected sources for ground-based interferometric detectors are neutron stars presenting non-axisymmetries such as crustal deformations, r-modes or free precession. More exotic sources could include decaying ultralight boson clouds around spinning black holes. A rich suite of data-analysis methods spanning a wide bracket of thresholds between sensitivity and computational efficiency has been developed during the last decades to search for these signals. In this work, we review the current state of searches for continuous gravitational waves using ground-based interferometer data, focusing on searches for unknown sources. These searches typically consist of a main stage followed by several post-processing steps to rule out outliers produced by detector noise. So far, no continuous gravitational wave signal has been confidently detected, although tighter upper limits are placed as detectors and search methods are further developed.

OPTIMIZATION OF OPERATIVE DELIVERY OF WOMEN IN LABOR WITH PLACENTA PREVIA

The aim – to evaluate the effectiveness of preventive ligation of uterine vessels during caesarean section in women with placenta previa. Material and Methods. The study was conducted on the basis of the Regional Perinatal Center and Maternity Hospital № 5 (Odessa) for 2000–2020 and performing the main stage of cesarean section after reducing perfusion in the placenta. Uterine ligation was performed after fetal removal. The volume of blood loss, the condition of the mother and fetus were monitored, and perinatal results were analyzed. Statistical processing was performed by methods of variance and frequency analysis using Statistica 13.0 software (TIBCO, USA). Results. The mean age of pregnant women was 33.4±1.2 years. The clinic of placenta previa during pregnancy was extremely scanty. As a rule, the diagnosis was made during ultrasound monitoring. In 16 (17.7 %) there was repeated bleeding from the genital tract without pain and increased uterine tone, with the development of anemia of moderate severity. Single bleeding was observed in 53 (58.9 %) women. Blood loss was 1380±112 ml in group I, 466±34 ml in group II (p<0.05). The frequency of anemia in the postoperative period was 38.0 % and 17.5 %, respectively (p<0.05). All newborns were discharged on the 5-7th day of the postpartum period in satisfactory condition. There were no cases of distress syndrome. Conclusions: 1. The method of control of blood loss during placenta previa by ligation of the uterine arteries is effective – blood loss was in group I 1380±112 ml, in group II – 466±34 ml (p<0,05). 2. The frequency of anemia in the postoperative period was 38.0 in group I and 17.5 % in group II (p<0.05).