Ensemble streamflow forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and long short term memory

Reliable and accurate streamflow forecasting plays a vital role in the optimal management of water resources. To improve the stability and accuracy of streamflow forecasting, a hybrid decomposition-ensemble model named VMD-LSTM-GBRT, which is sensitive to sampling, noise and long historical changes of streamflow, was established. The variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm was first applied to extract features, which were then learned by several long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Simultaneously, an ensemble tree, a gradient boosting tree for regression (GBRT), was trained to model the relationships between the extracted features and the original streamflow. The outputs of these LSTMs were finally reconstructed by the GBRT model to obtain the forecasting streamflow results. A historical daily streamflow series (from 1/1/1997 to 31/12/2014) for Yangxian station, Han River, China, was investigated by the proposed model. VMD-LSTM-GBRT was compared with respect to three aspects: (1) feature extraction algorithm; ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was used. (2) Feature learning techniques; deep neural networks (DNNs) and support vector machines for regression (SVRs) were exploited. (3) Ensemble strategy; the summation strategy was used. The results indicate that the VMD-LSTM-GBRT model overwhelms all other peer models in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE = 36.3692), determination coefficient (R2 = 0.9890), mean absolute error (MAE = 9.5246) and peak percentage threshold statistics (PPTS(5) = 0.0391%). The addressed approach based on the memory of long historical changes with deep feature representations had good stability and high prediction precision.

Processing and Interpretation of UAV Magnetic Data: A Workflow Based on Improved Variational Mode Decomposition and Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have become a research hotspot in the field of magnetic exploration because of their unique advantages, e.g., low cost, high safety, and easy to operate. However, the lack of effective data processing and interpretation method limits their further deployment. In view of this situation, a complete workflow of UAV magnetic data processing and interpretation is proposed in this paper, which can be divided into two steps: (1) the improved variational mode decomposition (VMD) is applied to the original data to improve its signal-to-noise ratio as much as possible, and the decomposition modes number K is determined adaptively according to the mode characteristics; (2) the parameters of target position and magnetic moment are obtained by Euler deconvolution first, and then used as the prior information of the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm to further improve its accuracy. Experiments are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the quality of the original data; by combining the Euler deconvolution and LM algorithm, the horizontal positioning error can be reduced from 15.31 cm to 4.05 cm, and the depth estimation error can be reduced from 16.2 cm to 5.4 cm. Moreover, the proposed method can be used not only for the detection and location of near-surface targets, but also for the follow-up work, such as the clearance of targets (e.g., the unexploded ordnance).