Artificial Neural Networks in Inflation Forecasting at the Meso-Level

The aim of the article is to analyze inflation factors and their influence on the consumer price index in the regions. The article discusses the existing mathematical models for the forecasting of the regional inflation rate as an important national measure. Advantages, disadvantages and application fields of these models are presented. The appropriateness of recurrent neural network use for regional inflation forecasting is demonstrated. The article describes the process of neural network architecture creation, its training, inflation parameter forecasting.

Protein Clustering in Formation of Falciparum Plasmodium using Soft Regularized-Markov Clustering Algorithm

Protein has an important role in our life. Every protein interacts with other proteins, DNA, and other molecules. It forms a very large protein interaction networks. We need clustering method to analyze it. Soft Regularized Markov Clustering (SR-MCL) algorithm is one of clustering method to reduce the weakness of Regularized Markov Clustering and Markov Clustering. In this research, SR-MCL will be applied using OpenMP. In every thread, SR-MCL is run using inflation parameter r = 2, 3, and 4. The simulation results show that, based on the fastest execution time and the smallest iteration, the parameter r = 2 produces the best cluster with 40 iterations and execution time is 613 seconds. The cluster centers obtained are 49 clusters with the largest cluster center is the XPO1 protein that interacts with 662 proteins, and 17 protein pairs that interact with each other. Therefore, the XPO1 is a very influential protein in Plasmodium Falciparum.Keywords: SR-MCL Algorithm, Protein Interaction Network, Plasmodium Falciparum. AbstrakProtein memiliki peranan yang sangat penting dalam kehidupan. Setiap protein berinteraksi dengan protein-protein lain, DNA, dan molekul-molekul lainnya, sehingga terbentuklah jaringan interaksi protein yang berukuran sangat besar. Untuk memudahkan dalam menganalisisnya, diperlukan metode clustering. Algoritma Soft Regularized Markov Clustering (SR-MCL) yang merupakan pengembangan metode clustering untuk mengurangi kelemahan dari Regularized Markov Clustering dan Markov Clustering. Pada penelitian ini, SR-MCL akan diterapkan menggunakan OpenMP, yaitu setiap thread menjalankan SR-MCL dengan parameter inflasi r = 2, 3, dan 4. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa, berdasarkan waktu eksekusi tercepat dan iterasi terkecil, cluster terbaik diperoleh ketika r = 2 yang menghasilkan 40 iterasi dengan waktu eksekusi 613 detik. Pusat cluster adalah protein XPO1 yang berinteraksi dengan 662 protein dan 17 pasangan protein yang saling berinteraksi satu dengan lainnya. Oleh karena itu, protein XPO1 adalah protein yang sangat berpengaruh dalam pembentukan Plasmodium Falciparum.Kata kunci: Algoritma SR-MCL, Jaringan Interaksi Protein, Plasmodium Falciparum.

Comparing Zero-inflated Poisson, Zero-inflated Negative Binomial and Zero-inflated Geometric in Count Data with Excess Zero

Count data often violate the assumptions of a normal distribution due to the fact that they are bounded by their lowest value which is zero. The Poison distribution is sometimes suggested but when the assumption of equal mean and variance is violated due to over-dispersion and presence of zeros we tend to look in the direction of other models. Zero-inflated data falls in this category. The zero-inflated and hurdle models have been found to fit this scenario. The proportions of zero in the data often affect the choice of the models. Our study used the Monte Carlo design to sample 1000 cases from positively skewed distribution with 1.25 as mean vector and 0.10 as zero-inflation parameter. The data was analysed using the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial and Zero-Inflated Geometric were fitted; the standard error and Akaike Information Criterion were obtained as measures of model validation with ZIP outperformed ZINB and ZIG.

Epidemiology and Estimated Cost of Brachial Plexus Surgeries Performed through the Unified Health System in Brazil (2008–2016)

Introduction The brachial plexus is responsible for the innervation of the upper extremity of the body. About 10 to 20% of the peripheral nerve lesions are brachial plexus lesions. Objective To describe the epidemiology of the brachial plexus microsurgery with exploration and neurolysis (BPMEN) and the brachial plexus microsurgery with nerve graft (BPMNG) performed through the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS, in the Portuguese acronym) from 2008 to 2016. Methodology A descriptive epidemiological study whose data were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the SUS (Datasus, in the Portuguese acronym). The study consisted of all patients submitted to BPMEN (code: 0403020034) and to BPMNG (code: 0403020042). Result/Discussion A total of 5,295 procedures were performed with an annual incidence of 2.94/1 million inhabitants. The hospital expenses of these 2 codes totaled R$ 4,492,603.88 (US$ 1,417,225.10). The BPMNG code presented an annual average of expenses with professional services of R$ 99,732.20 (US$ 31,461.26), and total expenses of R$ 897,589.83 (US$ 283,151.36). The amount transferred to the physician in this code in 2008 was R$ 294.56 (US$ 92.92), and currently it is R$ 441.84 (US$ 139.38). The BPMEN code presented an annual average of expenses of R$ 68,579.15 (US$ 21,633.80), with total expenses of R$ 617,212.40 (US$ 194,704.22). The amount transferred to the physician in this code in 2008 was R$ 153.44 (US$ 48.40), and currently it is R$ 230.16 (US$72.60). Both codes presented a lag in the transfer values to the physician that ranged from 16.55 to 17.64% when using the Brazilian national price index for the general consumer (IPCA, in the Portuguese acronym) as an inflation parameter during the period studied. The mean number of hospitalization days for these 2 codes was 3.79. Conclusion The absence of deaths and the low rate of hospital stay confirm that the procedure is safe, with a low morbimortality rate. Both codes presented a lag in the transfer values to the physician at the end of the period.

Multiple Contact and Axisymmetric Inflation of Hyperelastic Cylindrical Membranes

The confined axisymmetric inflation of a hyperelastic isotropic and homogeneous cylindrical membrane, with ends fixed, is examined in this study. The material is assumed to obey the Mooney-Rivlin constitutive model. The radius and thickness distributions of the undeformed cylinder are non-uniform. The problem is formulated to account for single- and multiple contact. At a point of contact, in contrast to most existing formulations on contact problems, the tangency condition between elastic membrane and solid boundary is respected. This translates into compatibility relations which are derived in the form of boundary conditions. Contact is also assumed to be slipless. There are three dimensionless parameters in the problem: (a) the initial cylinder length-radius ratio S, (b) the ratio m = C2 C1 of the Mooney constants and (c) an inflation parameter Rp. The influence of S and m is closely examined in the context of free inflation. Numerical illustrations are given for single- and double-contact problems.