Relating Land Use/Cover and Landscape Pattern to the Water Quality under the Simulation of SWAT in a Reservoir Basin, Southeast China

Understanding the relationship between land use/cover pattern and water quality could provide guidelines for non-point source pollution and facilitate sustainable development. The previous studies mainly relate the land use/cover of the entire region to the water quality at the monitoring sites, but the water quality at monitoring sites did not totally reflect the water environment of the entire basin. In this study, the land use/cover was monitored on Google Earth Engine in Tang-Pu Reservoir basin, China. In order to reflect the water quality of the whole study area, the spatial distribution of the determinants for water quality there, i.e., the total nitrogen and total phosphorus (TN&TP), were simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The redundancy analysis explored the correlations between land use/cover pattern and simulated TN&TP. The results showed that: (1) From 2009 to 2019, forest was the dominant land cover, and there was little land use/cover change. The landscape fragmentation increased, and the connectivity decreased. (2) About 25% TP concentrations and nearly all the TN concentrations at the monitoring points did not reach drinking water standard, which means nitrogen and phosphorus pollution were the most serious problems. The highest output per unit TN&TP simulated by SWAT were 44.50 kg/hm2 and 9.51 kg/hm2 and occurred in areas with highly fragile landscape patterns. (3) TN&TP correlated positively with cultivated and construction land but negatively with forest. The correlation between forest and TN&TP summited at 500–700-m buffer and construction land at 100-m buffer. As the buffer size increased, the correlation between the cultivated land, and the TN weakened, while the correlation with the TP increased. TN&TP correlated positively with the Shannon’s Diversity Index and negatively with the Contagion Index. This study provides a new perspective for exporting the impact of land use/cover pattern on water quality.

Land Use and Land Cover Pattern as a Measure of Tourism Impact on a Lakeshore Zone

Lakes provide different ecosystem services, including those related to tourism and recreation. Sustainable development principles should be respected in lake tourism planning. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone in a typical post-glacial Lakeland in Northern Poland (Central Europe). An explanatory analysis of the distribution of individual spatial factor values was performed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations algorithm (SHAP). In a first step, the aim was to select a Machine Learning model for modelling based on Shapley values. The greater or lesser influence of a given factor on the tourism function was measured for individual lakes. The final results of ensemble modelling and SHAP were obtained by averaging the results of five random repetitions of the execution of these models. The impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone can be much more accurately determined using an indirect method, by analysing the tourism and recreational infrastructure constantly present there. The values of the indices proposed in the study provide indirect information on the number of tourists using the tourist and recreational facilities and are a measure of the impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone. The developed methodology can be applied to the majority of post-glacial lakes in Europe and other regions of the world in order to monitor the threats resulting from shore zone exploitation. Such studies can be an appropriate tool for management and planning by the relevant authorities.

Estimation of Future Changes in Aboveground Forest Carbon Stock in Romania. A Prediction Based on Forest-Cover Pattern Scenario

The aboveground forest biomass plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and is considered a large and constant carbon reservoir. Hence, exploring the future potential changes in forest-cover pattern can help to estimate the trend of forest biomass and therefore, carbon stock in a certain area. As a result, the present paper attempts to model the potential changes in aboveground forest carbon stock based on the forest-cover pattern scenario simulated for 2050. Specifically, the resulting aboveground forest biomass, estimated for 2015 using the allometric equation based on diameter at breast height and the estimated forest density, was used as baseline data in the present approach. These spatial data were integrated into the forest-cover pattern scenario, predicted by using a spatially explicit model, i.e., the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S), in order to estimate the potential variation of aboveground forest carbon stock. Our results suggest an overall increase by approximately 4% in the aboveground forest carbon stock until 2050 in Romania. However, important differences in the forest-cover pattern change were predicted on the regional scale, thus highlighting that the rates of carbon accumulation will change significantly in large areas. This study may increase the knowledge of aboveground forest biomass and the future trend of carbon stock in the European countries. Furthermore, due to their predictive character, the results may provide a background for further studies, in order to investigate the potential ecological, socio-economic and forest management responses to the changes in the aboveground forest carbon stock. However, in view of the uncertainties associated with the data accuracy and methodology used, it is presumed that the results include several spatial errors related to the estimation of aboveground forest biomass and simulation of future forest-cover pattern change and therefore, represent an uncertainty for the practical management of applications and decisions.