Too opaque to trust or next time everything is different? A case study on the impact of Wirecard’s crash on German TecDAX companies and other payment service providers

We explore whether Wirecard’s presumed balance sheet manipulations have generated negative contagion effects. On the one hand, we focus on contagion to other tech companies, included in the German TecDAX index, and on the other hand, on contagion to other payment service providers. For the first group of companies, negative contagion effects could result from the opaqueness of innovative technologies, and for the second group of firms, this could result from decreasing market confidence in a business model that is potentially similar to the one of Wirecard. However, based on a descriptive analysis of equity share prices and a rolling window correlation analysis of stock returns, we do not find any evidence for negative contagion effects originating from Wirecard, neither to other TecDAX companies nor to payment service providers. Zooming into the effects on those TecDAX companies or payment service providers that were audited, as Wirecard, by EY we do not find any negative contagion effects, either.

Normal breathing releases SARS-CoV-2 into the air

This study tests the release of SARS-CoV-2 RNA into the air during normal breathing, without any sign of possible risk of contagion such as coughing, sneezing or talking. Five patients underwent oropharyngeal, nasopharyngeal and salivary swabs for real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Direct SARS-CoV-2 release during normal breathing was also investigated by RT-PCR in air samples collected using a microbiological sampler. Viral RNA was detected in air at 1 cm from the mouth of patients whose oropharyngeal, nasopharyngeal and salivary swabs tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. In contrast, the viral RNA was not identified in the exhaled air from patients with oropharyngeal, nasopharyngeal and salivary swabs that tested negative. Contagion of SARS-CoV-2 is possible by being very close to the mouth of someone who is infected, asymptomatic and simply breathing.

Negative play contagion in calves

Play is a strong outwardly directed, emotional behaviour and can contagiously spread between individuals. It has been suggested that high-playing animals could ‘seed’ play in others, spreading positive affective states. Despite the current interest in play contagion there has been no previous attempt to measure the strength of the play contagion effect. The calf (Bos taurus) is ideal for testing the strength of play contagion as play in calves is strongly related to energy intake from milk. We manipulated play in calves through their milk allowances and housed the calves in uniform groups all on the same milk allowance (high = UHigh or low = ULow) or in mixed groups with calves in the same group receiving either a high (= MHigh) or low (= MLow) milk allowance. We measured locomotor play using accelerometers on two consecutive days when calves were four and eight weeks old, in order to study play contagion over a protracted developmental window. We anticipated that differences in the level of play contagion between treatment groups would result in difference in the play levels observed in the MLow and ULow individuals. Contrary to our expectations we found that spontaneous play was suppressed in the high-milk calves housed in mixed groups (MHigh), in comparison to calves housed with group mates all receiving high-milk (UHigh). These results are the first to quantify a negative play contagion effect, particularly in a situation of long-term contact, and may suggest that negative contagion has a stronger effect on play behaviour than positive contagion.

Contagion via Magical Thinking and via Mere Proximity

People show an irrational dislike for objects that were once contaminated or had come into contact with an undesirable person, even if they are currently indistinguishable from other similar objects. To date, such negative contagion within the magical thinking literature has been shown only with inanimate objects. We addressed a boundary condition to see if it also extended to animate targets (dogs and children) while teasing out mere-proximity effects that would predict a similar contagion in the case of children. We used two different types of contagion, one based on proximity and one based on self-information. We found that magical thinking did extend to dogs but not to children when not confounded by mere-proximity effects. Also, contagion was less strong in the case of animate targets, but pity was not related to either this reduction or to the disappearance of the effect with children.