SARS-CoV-2 Nsp5 Protein Causes Acute Lung Inflammation, A Dynamical Mathematical Model

In the present work we propose a dynamical mathematical model of the lung cells inflammation process in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this scenario the main protease Nsp5 enhances the inflammatory process, increasing the levels of NF kB, IL-6, Cox2, and PGE2 with respect to a reference state without the virus. In presence of the virus the translation rates of NF kB and IkB arise to a high constant value, and when the translation rate of IL-6 also increases above the threshold value of 7 pg mL−1 s−1 the model predicts a persistent over stimulated immune state with high levels of the cytokine IL-6. Our model shows how such over stimulated immune state becomes autonomous of the signals from other immune cells such as macrophages and lymphocytes, and does not shut down by itself. We also show that in the context of the dynamical model presented here, Dexamethasone or Nimesulide have little effect on such inflammation state of the infected lung cell, and the only form to suppress it is with the inhibition of the activity of the viral protein Nsp5. To that end, our model suggest that drugs like Saquinavir may be useful. In this form, our model suggests that Nsp5 is effectively a central node underlying the severe acute lung inflammation during SARS-CoV-2 infection. The persistent production of IL-6 by lung cells can be one of the causes of the cytokine storm observed in critical patients with COVID19. Nsp5 seems to be the switch to start inflammation, the consequent overproduction of the ACE2 receptor, and an important underlying cause of the most severe cases of COVID19.

Predicting Experimental Sepsis Survival with a Mathematical Model of Acute Inflammation

Sepsis is characterized by an overactive, dysregulated inflammatory response that drives organ dysfunction and often results in death. Mathematical modeling has emerged as an essential tool for understanding the underlying complex biological processes. A system of four ordinary differential equations (ODEs) was developed to simulate the dynamics of bacteria, the pro- and anti-inflammatory responses, and tissue damage (whose molecular correlate is damage-associated molecular pattern [DAMP] molecules and which integrates inputs from the other variables, feeds back to drive further inflammation, and serves as a proxy for whole-organism health status). The ODE model was calibrated to experimental data from E. coli infection in genetically identical rats and was validated with mortality data for these animals. The model demonstrated recovery, aseptic death, or septic death outcomes for a simulated infection while varying the initial inoculum, pathogen growth rate, strength of the local immune response, and activation of the pro-inflammatory response in the system. In general, more septic outcomes were encountered when the initial inoculum of bacteria was increased, the pathogen growth rate was increased, or the host immune response was decreased. The model demonstrated that small changes in parameter values, such as those governing the pathogen or the immune response, could explain the experimentally observed variability in mortality rates among septic rats. A local sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the magnitude of such parameter effects on system dynamics. Despite successful predictions of mortality, simulated trajectories of bacteria, inflammatory responses, and damage were closely clustered during the initial stages of infection, suggesting that uncertainty in initial conditions could lead to difficulty in predicting outcomes of sepsis by using inflammation biomarker levels.

A Computational Atlas of Tissue-specific Regulatory Networks

The pattern of how gene co-regulation varies across tissues determines human health. However, inferring tissue-specific regulatory networks and associating them with human phenotypes represent a substantial challenge because multi-tissue projects, including the GTEx, typically contain expression data measured only at one time point from highly heterogeneous donors. Here, we implement an interdisciplinary framework for assembling and programming genomic data from multiple tissues into fully informative gene networks, encapsulated by a complete set of bi-directional, signed, and weighted interactions, from static expression data. This framework can monitor how gene networks change simultaneously across tissues and individuals, infer gene-driven inter-tissue wiring networks, compare and test topological alterations of gene/tissue networks between health states, and predict how regulatory networks evolve across spatiotemporal gradients. Our framework provides a tool to catalogue a comprehensive encyclopedia of mechanistic gene networks that walk medical researchers through tissues in each individual and through individuals for each tissue, facilitating the translation of multi-tissue data into clinical practices.