Stochastic Temporal Data Upscaling Using the Generalized k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm

Three methods of temporal data upscaling, which may collectively be called the generalized k-nearest neighbor (GkNN) method, are considered. The accuracy of the GkNN simulation of month by month yield is considered (where the term yield denotes the dependent variable). The notion of an eventually well-distributed time series is introduced and on the basis of this assumption some properties of the average annual yield and its variance for a GkNN simulation are computed. The total yield over a planning period is determined and a general framework for considering the GkNN algorithm based on the notion of stochastically dependent time series is described and it is shown that for a sufficiently large training set the GkNN simulation has the same statistical properties as the training data. An example of the application of the methodology is given in the problem of simulating yield of a rainwater tank given monthly climatic data.

Regime-Switching Temperature Dynamics Model for Weather Derivatives

Weather is a key production factor in agricultural crop production and at the same time the most significant and least controllable source of peril in agriculture. These effects of weather on agricultural crop production have triggered a widespread support for weather derivatives as a means of mitigating the risk associated with climate change on agriculture. However, these products are faced with basis risk as a result of poor design and modelling of the underlying weather variable (temperature). In order to circumvent these problems, a novel time-varying mean-reversion Lévy regime-switching model is used to model the dynamics of the deseasonalized temperature dynamics. Using plots and test statistics, it is observed that the residuals of the deseasonalized temperature data are not normally distributed. To model the nonnormality in the residuals, we propose using the hyperbolic distribution to capture the semiheavy tails and skewness in the empirical distributions of the residuals for the shifted regime. The proposed regime-switching model has a mean-reverting heteroskedastic process in the base regime and a Lévy process in the shifted regime. By using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, the parameters of the proposed model are estimated. The proposed model is flexible as it modelled the deseasonalized temperature data accurately.

Option Price Decomposition in Spot-Dependent Volatility Models and Some Applications

We obtain a Hull and White type option price decomposition for a general local volatility model. We apply the obtained formula to CEV model. As an application we give an approximated closed formula for the call option price under a CEV model and an approximated short term implied volatility surface. These approximated formulas are used to estimate model parameters. Numerical comparison is performed for our new method with exact and approximated formulas existing in the literature.

Malliavin Differentiability of Solutions of SPDEs with Lévy White Noise

We consider a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) driven by a Lévy white noise, with Lipschitz multiplicative term σ. We prove that, under some conditions, this equation has a unique random field solution. These conditions are verified by the stochastic heat and wave equations. We introduce the basic elements of Malliavin calculus with respect to the compensated Poisson random measure associated with the Lévy white noise. If σ is affine, we prove that the solution is Malliavin differentiable and its Malliavin derivative satisfies a stochastic integral equation.

Semigroup Solution of Path-Dependent Second-Order Parabolic Partial Differential Equations

We apply a new series representation of martingales, developed by Malliavin calculus, to characterize the solution of the second-order path-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) of parabolic type. For instance, we show that the generator of the semigroup characterizing the solution of the path-dependent heat equation is equal to one-half times the second-order Malliavin derivative evaluated along the frozen path.

Global Stability of Nonlinear Stochastic SEI Epidemic Model with Fluctuations in Transmission Rate of Disease

We derive and analyze the dynamic of a stochastic SEI epidemic model for disease spread. Fluctuations in the transmission rate of the disease bring about stochasticity in model. We discuss the asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium by first deriving the closed form deterministic (R0) and stochastic (R0) basic reproductive number. Contrary to some author’s remark that different diffusion rates have no effect on the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, we showed that even if no epidemic invasion occurs with respect to the deterministic version of the SEI model (i.e., R0<1), epidemic can still grow initially (if R0>1) because of the presence of noise in the stochastic version of the model. That is, diffusion rates can have effect on the stability by causing a transient epidemic advance. A threshold criterion for epidemic invasion was derived in the presence of external noise.

Generalisation of Hajek’s Stochastic Comparison Results to Stochastic Sums

Hajek’s univariate stochastic comparison result is generalised to multivariate stochastic sum processes with univariate convex data functions and for univariate monotonic nondecreasing convex data functions for processes with and without drift, respectively. As a consequence strategies for a class of multivariate optimal control problems can be determined by maximizing variance. An example is passport options written on multivariate traded accounts. The argument describes a narrow path between impossibilities of generalisations to jump processes or impossibilities of more general data functions.

Asymptotic Time Averages and Frequency Distributions

Consider an arbitrary nonnegative deterministic process (in a stochastic setting {X(t), t≥0} is a fixed realization, i.e., sample-path of the underlying stochastic process) with state space S=(-∞,∞). Using a sample-path approach, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the long-run time average of a measurable function of process to be equal to the expectation taken with respect to the same measurable function of its long-run frequency distribution. The results are further extended to allow unrestricted parameter (time) space. Examples are provided to show that our condition is not superfluous and that it is weaker than uniform integrability. The case of discrete-time processes is also considered. The relationship to previously known sufficient conditions, usually given in stochastic settings, will also be discussed. Our approach is applied to regenerative processes and an extension of a well-known result is given. For researchers interested in sample-path analysis, our results will give them the choice to work with the time average of a process or its frequency distribution function and go back and forth between the two under a mild condition.

A BSDE with Delayed Generator Approach to Pricing under Counterparty Risk and Collateralization

We consider a nonlinear pricing problem that takes into account credit risk and funding issues. The aforementioned problem is formulated as a stochastic forward-backward system with delay, both in the forward and in the backward component, whose solution is characterized in terms of viscosity solution to a suitable type of path-dependent PDE.

Stochastic Analysis of Gaussian Processes via Fredholm Representation

We show that every separable Gaussian process with integrable variance function admits a Fredholm representation with respect to a Brownian motion. We extend the Fredholm representation to a transfer principle and develop stochastic analysis by using it. We show the convenience of the Fredholm representation by giving applications to equivalence in law, bridges, series expansions, stochastic differential equations, and maximum likelihood estimations.