scholarly journals Relationship between optimal precursory disturbances and optimally growing initial errors associated with ENSO events: Implications to target observations for ENSO prediction

2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (5) ◽  
pp. 2901-2917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junya Hu ◽  
Wansuo Duan
Keyword(s):  
Enso Prediction ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Initial Errors

The Importance of Central Pacific Meridional Heat Advection to the Development of ENSO

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Caihong Wen ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Michelle L’ Heureux ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
Emily Becker
Keyword(s):  
Water Volume ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Enso Prediction ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Ocean Reanalyses ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
Warm Water Volume ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe relationship between the Warm Water Volume (WWV) ENSO precursor and ENSO SST weakened substantially after ~2000, coinciding with a degradation in dynamical model ENSO prediction skill. It is important to understand the drivers of the equatorial thermocline temperature variations and their linkage to ENSO onsets. In this study, a set of ocean reanalyses is employed to assess factors responsible for the variation of the equatorial Pacific Ocean thermocline during 1982-2019. Off-equatorial thermocline temperature anomalies carried equatorward by the mean meridional currents associated with Pacific Tropical Cells are shown to play an important role in modulating the central equatorial thermocline variations, which is rarely discussed in the literature. Further, ENSO events are delineated into two groups based on precursor mechanisms: the western equatorial type (WEP) ENSO, when the central equatorial thermocline is mainly influenced by the zonal propagation of anomalies from the western Pacific, and the off-equatorial central Pacific (OCP) ENSO, when off-equatorial central thermocline anomalies play the primary role. WWV is found to precede all WEP ENSO by 6-9 months, while the correlation is substantially lower for OCP ENSO events. In contrast, the central tropical Pacific (CTP) precursor, which includes off-equatorial thermocline signals, has a very robust lead correlation with the OCP ENSO. Most OCP ENSO events are found to follow the same ENSO conditions, and the number of OCP ENSO increases substantially since the 21st century. These results highlight the importance of monitoring off-equatorial subsurface preconditions for ENSO prediction and to understand multi-year ENSO.

RACIAL STEREOTYPING OF HOMO SAPIENS AFRICANUS: A REVIEW OF ITS MYTH AND IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENTAL CAPACITY

2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth Oppong
Keyword(s):  
Immanuel Kant ◽  
David Hume ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Homo Sapiens ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
White People ◽  
Negative Stereotypes ◽  
Initial Errors ◽  
Developmental Capacity ◽  
Lower Intelligence

Generally, negatives stereotypes have been shown to have negative impact on performance members of a social group that is the target of the stereotype (Schmader, Johns and Forbes 2008; Steele and Aronson, 1995). It is against the background of this evidence that this paper argues that the negative stereotypes of perceived lower intelligence held against Africans has similar impact on the general development of the continent. This paper seeks to challenge this stereotype by tracing the source of this negative stereotype to David Hume and Immanuel Kant and showing the initial errors they committed which have influenced social science knowledge about race relations. Hume and Kant argue that Africans are naturally inferior to white or are less intelligent and support their thesis with their contrived evidence that there has never been any civilized nation other than those developed by white people nor any African scholars of eminence. Drawing on Anton Wilhelm Amo’s negligence-ignorance thesis, this paper shows the Hume-Kantian argument and the supporting evidence to be fallacious. 

Dynamic and Positioning Performances of Linear Electromechanical Actuator

2015 ◽  
Vol 809-810 ◽  
pp. 682-687
Author(s):  
Vasile Nasui ◽  
Mihai Banica ◽  
Dinu Darabă
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Characteristics ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Correct Identification ◽  
Positioning System ◽  
Positioning Error ◽  
Servo Motor ◽  
Positioning Accuracy ◽  
Electromechanical Actuator ◽  
Initial Errors ◽  
Selection For

This paper presents the dynamic characteristics and the proposed positioning performance of the system to them investigated experimentally. In this research, we developed the positioning system and we evaluated positioning accuracy. The developed system uses a servo motor for motion actuation. In this paper, we focused on studying the dependency of the positioning error – elementary errors – the position of the conducting element for the mechanism of the transformation of the rotation translation movement, representatively the mechanism screw – screwdriver and on emphasizing the practical consequences in the field of design, regulation and exploitation of the correct identification of all the initial errors in the structure of the mechanism, their character and the selection for an ultimate calculus of these which are of a real practical importance.

scholarly journals Linking Holocene East Asian monsoon variability to solar forcing and ENSO activity: Multi-proxy evidence from a peatland in Northeastern China

The Holocene ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 095968362199466
Author(s):  
Nannan Li ◽  
Arash Sharifi ◽  
Frank M Chambers ◽  
Yong Ge ◽  
Nathalie Dubois ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Monsoon Area ◽  
Wavelet Coherency ◽  
Cross Wavelet

High-resolution proxy-based paleoenvironmental records derived from peatlands provide important insights into climate changes over centennial to millennial timescales. In this study, we present a composite climatic index (CCI) for the Hani peatland from northeastern China, based on an innovative combination of pollen-spore, phytolith, and grain size data. We use the CCI to reconstruct variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity during the Holocene. This is accomplished with complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), REDFIT, and cross-wavelet coherency analysis to reveal the periodicities (frequencies) of the multi-proxy derived CCI sequences and to assess potential external forcing of the EASM. The results showed that periodicities of ca. 300–350, 475, 600, 1075, and 1875 years were present in the Hani CCI sequence. Those periodicities are consistent with previously published periodicities in East Asia, indicating they are a product of external climate controls over an extensive region, rather than random variations caused by peatland-specific factors. Cross-wavelet coherency analysis between the decomposed CCI components and past solar activity reconstructions suggests that variations of solar irradiation are most likely responsible for the cyclic characteristics at 500-year frequency. We propose a conceptual model to interpret how the sun regulates the monsoon climate via coupling with oceanic and atmospheric circulations. It seems that slight solar irradiation changes can be amplified by coupling with ENSO events, which result in a significant impact on the regional climate in the East Asian monsoon area.

scholarly journals Optimally growing initial errors of El Niño events in the CESM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Xu ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Wansuo Duan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Initial Error ◽  
Initial Errors ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Type 3 ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractThe optimally growing initial errors (OGEs) of El Niño events are found in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. Based on the characteristics of low-dimensional attractors for ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) systems, we apply singular vector decomposition (SVD) to reduce the dimensions of optimization problems and calculate the CNOP in a truncated phase space by the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. In the CESM, we obtain three types of OGEs of El Niño events with different intensities and diversities and call them type-1, type-2 and type-3 initial errors. Among them, the type-1 initial error is characterized by negative SSTA errors in the equatorial Pacific accompanied by a negative west–east slope of subsurface temperature from the subsurface to the surface in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. The type-2 initial error is similar to the type-1 initial error but with the opposite sign. The type-3 initial error behaves as a basin-wide dipolar pattern of tropical sea temperature errors from the sea surface to the subsurface, with positive errors in the upper layers of the equatorial eastern Pacific and negative errors in the lower layers of the equatorial western Pacific. For the type-1 (type-2) initial error, the negative (positive) temperature errors in the eastern equatorial Pacific develop locally into a mature La Niña (El Niño)-like mode. For the type-3 initial error, the negative errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific propagate eastward with Kelvin waves and are intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although the type-1 and type-3 initial errors have different spatial patterns and dynamic growing mechanisms, both cause El Niño events to be underpredicted as neutral states or La Niña events. However, the type-2 initial error makes a moderate El Niño event to be predicted as an extremely strong event.

Heat wave characteristics over India during ENSO events

2021 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Naveena ◽  
G Ch Satyanarayana ◽  
K Koteswara Rao ◽  
N Umakanth ◽  
D Srinivas
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Wave Characteristics
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