Uncertainty Modeling

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Christian Gogu
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Modeling

scholarly journals Method of Estimating Uncertainty as a Way to Evaluate Continuity Quality of Power Supply in Hospital Devices

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 486
Author(s):  
Marek Stawowy ◽  
Adam Rosiński ◽  
Jacek Paś ◽  
Tomasz Klimczak
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power Supply ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Additional Advantage ◽  
Quality Models ◽  
Reliability Indicators ◽  
Electrical Devices

The article presents issues related to the determination of the continuity quality of power supply (CQoPS) for hospital electrical devices. The model describing CQoPS takes into account power redundancy. The uncertainty modeling method based on the certainty factor (CF) of the hypothesis was used to establish the single-valued CQoPS factor. CQoPS modeling takes into account multidimensional quality models and physical stages of power. The quality models take into account seven dimensions that make up CQoPS (availability, appropriate amount, power supply reliability, power quality, assurance, responsiveness, security). The model of power stages includes five of these stages (power generation, delivery to recipient, distribution by recipient, delivery to device, power-consuming device). To date, when designing hospital power systems, the applied reliability indicators revealed limitations because they do not consider all the possible factors influencing the power continuity. Estimating the supply continuity quality with the use of the uncertainty modeling proposed in this article allows for taking into account all possible factors (not just reliability factors) that may affect supply continuity. The presented modeling offers an additional advantage, namely, it allows an expanded evaluation of the hospital supply system and a description using only one indicator. This fact renders the evaluation of the supply system possible for unqualified staff. At the end of the article, some examples of calculations and simulations are presented, thus showing that the applied methods give the expected results.

scholarly journals A Survey on Microgrid Energy Management Considering Flexible Energy Sources

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 2156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Shayeghi ◽  
Elnaz Shahryari ◽  
Mohammad Moradzadeh ◽  
Pierluigi Siano
Keyword(s):  
Energy Management ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Distributed Generations ◽  
Peak Loads ◽  
Microgrid Energy Management

Aggregation of distributed generations (DGs) along with energy storage systems (ESSs) and controllable loads near power consumers has led to the concept of microgrids. However, the uncertain nature of renewable energy sources such as wind and photovoltaic generations, market prices and loads has led to difficulties in ensuring power quality and in balancing generation and consumption. To tackle these problems, microgrids should be managed by an energy management system (EMS) that facilitates the minimization of operational costs, emissions and peak loads while satisfying the microgrid technical constraints. Over the past years, microgrids’ EMS have been studied from different perspectives and have recently attracted considerable attention of researchers. To this end, in this paper a classification and a survey of EMSs has been carried out from a new point of view. EMSs have been classified into four categories based on the kind of the reserve system being used, including non-renewable, ESS, demand-side management (DSM) and hybrid systems. Moreover, using recent literature, EMSs have been reviewed in terms of uncertainty modeling techniques, objective functions (OFs) and constraints, optimization techniques, and simulation and experimental results presented in the literature.

Embracing Uncertainty: Modeling Uncertainty in EPMA—Part II

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-89
Author(s):  
Nicholas W.M. Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
Beam Energy ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Matrix Correction ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Uncertainty Calculation ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Measurement Design ◽  
New Framework

AbstractThis, the second in a series of articles present a new framework for considering the computation of uncertainty in electron excited X-ray microanalysis measurements, will discuss matrix correction. The framework presented in the first article will be applied to the matrix correction model called “Pouchou and Pichoir's Simplified Model” or simply “XPP.” This uncertainty calculation will consider the influence of beam energy, take-off angle, mass absorption coefficient, surface roughness, and other parameters. Since uncertainty calculations and measurement optimization are so intimately related, it also provides a starting point for optimizing accuracy through choice of measurement design.

Embracing Uncertainty: Modeling the Standard Uncertainty in Electron Probe Microanalysis—Part I

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 469-483
Author(s):  
Nicholas W. M. Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Expert System ◽  
Coating Thickness ◽  
Electron Probe ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Measurement Model ◽  
Standard Uncertainty ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Error Bars ◽  
New Framework

AbstractThis is the first in a series of articles which present a new framework for computing the standard uncertainty in electron excited X-ray microanalysis measurements. This article will discuss the framework and apply it to a handful of simple, but useful, subcomponents of the larger problem. Subsequent articles will handle more complex aspects of the measurement model. The result will be a framework in which sophisticated and practical models of the uncertainty for real-world measurements. It will include many long overlooked contributions like surface roughness and coating thickness. The result provides more than just error bars for our measurements. It also provides a framework for measurement optimization and, ultimately, the development of an expert system to guide both the novice and expert to design more effective measurement protocols.

Development of Conceptual Model for Uncertainty Management on Project Completion Late Delivery in Environmental Issues

2014 ◽  
Vol 666 ◽  
pp. 363-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baharum Zirawani ◽  
M. Ngadiman Salihin ◽  
H. Mustaffa Noorfa
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Time Management ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Fractional Factorial ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
Late Delivery ◽  
Water Supply Company

The construction industry has many underlying causes of uncertainty that impact on late delivery of project completion's performance as well as in time management. Most of researchers proposed a modelling and simulation techniques to solve these uncertainties problem nevertheless not tackling the uncertainty in environmental issues (EI). Yet, the environmental issues were also leading significant deviations for project completion performance, which means it is important to be studied. Therefore, the comprehensive sturvey is discussed in this paper in purpose to develop the uncertainty modeling model on late delivery in environmental issues. The development of conceptual model through a comprehensive survey involving piping's construction industry for water supply company with multi-project construction environment is developed to show the relationship for each cause and affects that underlying uncertainty on late project delivery in environmental issues. Further research is to verify and validate the conceptual model as has been analyzed through fractional factorial design with ANOVA, through the development of uncertainty model via modeling and simulation using MATLAB.

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