Demography, inequalities and Global Health Security Index as correlates of COVID‐19 morbidity and mortality

UNSTRUCTURED The severity of this global pandemic and focus upon its devastating effects upon local communities has tended to be through the media with time series graphics at the national level. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to examine the cross-national differences in the deaths caused by covid-19, and relate that to a range of contextual variables. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to examine the influence that various contextual variables have upon the number of deaths due to covid-19, across the world. Setting Level: This study utilizes data for 125 countries for contextual variables from 1st January 2020 until the 15th June 2020. Participants: This study considers deaths from covid-19. Interventions: DELETED Primary and secondary outcome measures: The contextual variables considered in this study are stringency index, stringency variability, lockdown date, population density, level of airline passengers and country health security index. Results: It is shown there is a very strong association between the level of airline passengers and covid-19 deaths. The results from regression analysis conducted in this study show significant positive relationships at the 5% level of statistical significance between Deaths from covid-19 and airline passenger levels and stringency variability; significant negative relationships are revealed for stringency index and lockdown date supporting the notion that lock down and social distancing measures mattered and were effective. The Global health security index and population density did not significantly affect deaths. Conclusion: This study highlights the strong link between a country’s airline passengers and covid-19 deaths and found that the lockdown date and stringency measures had a significant effect upon deaths. The implications of the research is that lockdown and stringency measures implemented by governments around the world worked and mattered. Further, the fact that global health security did not affect deaths may indicate better preparedness required to confront future pandemics. Trial Registration: DELETED INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.28.20163394

Download Full-text

Validation analysis of Global Health Security Index (GHSI) scores 2019

BMJ Global Health ◽

10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003276 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (10) ◽

pp. e003276

Author(s):

Matthew J Boyd ◽

Nick Wilson ◽

Cassidy Nelson

Keyword(s):

Global Health ◽

External Validity ◽

Communicable Disease ◽

Communicable Diseases ◽

Linear Regression Models ◽

Global Health Security ◽

Health Security ◽

Future Events ◽

Security Index ◽

The Impact

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic powerfully demonstrates the consequences of biothreats. Countries will want to know how to better prepare for future events. The Global Health Security Index (GHSI) is a broad, independent assessment of 195 countries’ preparedness for biothreats that may aid this endeavour. However, to be useful, the GHSI’s external validity must be demonstrated. We aimed to validate the GHSI against a range of external metrics to assess how it could be utilised by countries.MethodsGlobal aggregate communicable disease outcomes were correlated with GHSI scores and linear regression models were examined to determine associations while controlling for a number of global macroindices. GHSI scores for countries previously exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome and Ebola and recipients of US Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) investment were compared with matched control countries. Possible content omissions in light of the progressing COVID-19 pandemic were assessed.ResultsGHSI scores for countries had strong criterion validity against the Joint External Evaluation ReadyScore (rho=0.82, p<0.0001), and moderate external validity against deaths from communicable diseases (−0.56, p<0.0001). GHSI scores were associated with reduced deaths from communicable diseases (F(3, 172)=22.75, p<0.0001). The proportion of deaths from communicable diseases decreased 4.8% per 10-point rise in GHSI. Recipient countries of the GHSA (n=31) and SARS-affected countries (n=26), had GHSI scores 6.0 (p=0.0011) and 8.2 (p=0.0010) points higher than matched controls, respectively. Biosecurity and biosafety appear weak globally including in high-income countries, and health systems, particularly in Africa, are not prepared. Notably, the GHSI does not account for all factors important for health security.ConclusionThe GHSI shows promise as a valid tool to guide action on biosafety, biosecurity and systems preparedness. However, countries need to look beyond existing metrics to other factors moderating the impact of future pandemics and other biothreats. Consideration of anthropogenic and large catastrophic scenarios is also needed.

Download Full-text

The Global Health Security Index is not predictive of vaccine rollout responses among OECD countries

International Journal of Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1016/j.ijid.2021.09.034 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Banda A. Khalifa ◽

Enoch J. Abbey ◽

Samuel K. Ayeh ◽

Hasiya E. Yusuf ◽

Richard D Nudotor ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Health ◽

Oecd Countries ◽

Global Health Security ◽

Health Security ◽

Security Index

Download Full-text

The Global Health Security Index is not predictive of coronavirus pandemic responses among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0239398 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (10) ◽

pp. e0239398

Author(s):

Enoch J. Abbey ◽

Banda A. A. Khalifa ◽

Modupe O. Oduwole ◽

Samuel K. Ayeh ◽

Richard D. Nudotor ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Health ◽

Economic Cooperation ◽

Global Health Security ◽

Health Security ◽

Security Index

Download Full-text

Global Determinants of Covid-19 Deaths: Lockdown Dates and Social Distancing Measures Mattered

10.1101/2020.07.28.20163394 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

VINCENT J. HOOPER

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Global Health ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Global Health Security ◽

Contextual Variables ◽

Health Security ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The World ◽

Airline Passengers ◽

Security Index

Objectives: The objective of this paper is to examine the influence that various contextual variables have upon the number of deaths due to covid-19, across the world. Setting Level: This study utilizes data for 125 countries for contextual variables from 1st January 2020 until the 15th June 2020. Participants: This study considers deaths from covid-19. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The contextual variables considered in this study are stringency index, stringency variability, lockdown date, population density, level of airline passengers and country health security index. Results: It is shown there is a very strong association between the level of airline passengers and covid-19 deaths. The results from regression analysis conducted in this study show significant positive relationships at the 5% level of statistical significance between Deaths from covid-19 and airline passenger levels and stringency variability; significant negative relationships are revealed for stringency index and lockdown date supporting the notion that lock down and social distancing measures mattered and were effective. The Global health security index and population density did not significantly affect deaths. Conclusion: This study highlights the strong link between a country's airline passengers and covid-19 deaths and found that the lockdown date and stringency measures had a significant effect upon deaths. The implications of the research is that lockdown and stringency measures implemented by governments around the world worked and mattered. Further, the fact that global health security did not affect deaths may indicate better preparedness required to confront future pandemics.

Download Full-text

The Global Health Security Index is not predictive of coronavirus pandemic responses among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries

10.1101/2020.07.21.20159061 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Enoch J Abbey ◽

Banda A. A Khalifa ◽

Modupe O. Oduwole ◽

Samuel K. Ayeh ◽

Richard D. Nudotor ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Health ◽

Global Economy ◽

Economic Cooperation ◽

Global Health Security ◽

Pandemic Preparedness ◽

Health Security ◽

Actual Performance ◽

Ripple Effects ◽

Detailed Assessment ◽

Security Index

ABSTRACT The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has devastated many countries with ripple effects felt in various sectors of the global economy. In November 2019, the Global Health Security (GHS) Index was released as the first detailed assessment and benchmarking of 195 countries to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease threats. This paper presents the first comparison of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD countries' performance during the pandemic, with the pre-COVID-19 pandemic preparedness as determined by the GHS Index. Using a rank-based analysis, four indices were compared between select countries, including total cases, total deaths, recovery rate, and total tests performed, all standardized for comparison. Our findings suggest a discrepancy between the GHS index rating and the actual performance of countries during this pandemic, with an overestimation of the preparedness of some countries scoring highly on the GHS index and underestimation of the preparedness of other countries with relatively lower scores on the GHS index.

Download Full-text

The value proposition of the Global Health Security Index

BMJ Global Health ◽

10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003648 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (10) ◽

pp. e003648

Author(s):

Sanjana J Ravi ◽

Kelsey Lane Warmbrod ◽

Lucia Mullen ◽

Diane Meyer ◽

Elizabeth Cameron ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Health ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Global Health Security ◽

Health Security ◽

Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽

Health Goals ◽

Security Research ◽

Security Index ◽

Political Economic ◽

Ranking Countries

Infectious disease outbreaks pose major threats to human health and security. Countries with robust capacities for preventing, detecting and responding to outbreaks can avert many of the social, political, economic and health system costs of such crises. The Global Health Security Index (GHS Index)—the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries—recently found that no country is sufficiently prepared for epidemics or pandemics. The GHS Index can help health security stakeholders identify areas of weakness, as well as opportunities to collaborate across sectors, collectively strengthen health systems and achieve shared public health goals. Some scholars have recently offered constructive critiques of the GHS Index’s approach to scoring and ranking countries; its weighting of select indicators; its emphasis on transparency; its focus on biosecurity and biosafety capacities; and divergence between select country scores and corresponding COVID-19-associated caseloads, morbidity, and mortality. Here, we (1) describe the practical value of the GHS Index; (2) present potential use cases to help policymakers and practitioners maximise the utility of the tool; (3) discuss the importance of scoring and ranking; (4) describe the robust methodology underpinning country scores and ranks; (5) highlight the GHS Index’s emphasis on transparency and (6) articulate caveats for users wishing to use GHS Index data in health security research, policymaking and practice.

Download Full-text