scholarly journals Multidecadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (10) ◽  
pp. 5772-5791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Chunzai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

scholarly journals A Multimodel Study of Sea Surface Temperature and Subsurface Density Fingerprints of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (22) ◽  
pp. 9155-9174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher D. Roberts ◽  
Freya K. Garry ◽  
Laura C. Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the North Atlantic climate system. Here, simulations from 10 coupled climate models are used to calculate patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface density change associated with decadal AMOC variability. The models are evaluated using observational constraints and it is shown that all 10 models suffer from North Atlantic Deep Water transports that are too shallow, although the biases are least severe in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). In the models that best compare with observations, positive AMOC anomalies are associated with reduced Labrador Sea stratification and increased midocean (800–1800 m) densities in the subpolar gyre. Maximum correlations occur when AMOC anomalies lag Labrador Sea stratification and subsurface density anomalies by 2–6 yr and 0–3 yr, respectively. In all 10 models, North Atlantic warming follows positive AMOC anomalies, but the patterns and magnitudes of SST change are variable. A simple detection and attribution analysis is then used to evaluate the utility of Atlantic midocean density and Labrador Sea stratification indices for detecting changes to the AMOC in the presence of increasing CO2 concentrations. It is shown that trends in midocean density are identifiable (although not attributable) significantly earlier than trends in the AMOC. For this reason, subsurface density observations could be a useful complement to transport observations made at specific latitudes and may help with the more rapid diagnosis of basin-scale changes in the AMOC. Using existing observations, it is not yet possible to detect a robust trend in the AMOC using either midocean densities or transport observations from 26.5°N.

scholarly journals Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 739-757
Author(s):  
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira ◽  
Leonard Friedrich Borchert ◽  
Aurélie Duchez ◽  
Mikhail Dobrynin ◽  
Johanna Baehr
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Seesaw Mechanism ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Start Dates

Abstract. We investigate the impact of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26∘ N on the prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) a season ahead. We test the dependence of sea surface temperate (SST) predictive skill in initialised hindcasts on the phase of the AMOC at 26∘N, invoking a seesaw mechanism driven by AMOC fluctuations, with positive SSTAs north of 26∘ N and negative SSTAs south of 26∘ N after a strong AMOC and vice versa. We use initialised simulations with the MPI-ESM-MR (where MR is mixed resolution) seasonal prediction system. First, we use an assimilation experiment between 1979–2014 to confirm that the AMOC leads a SSTA dipole pattern in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, with the strongest AMOC fingerprints after 2–4 months. Going beyond previous studies, we find that the AMOC fingerprint has a seasonal dependence and is sensitive to the length of the observational window used, i.e. stronger over the last decade than for the entire time series back to 1979. We then use a set of ensemble hindcast simulations with 30 members, starting each February, May, August and November between 1982 and 2014. We compare the changes in skill between composites based on the AMOC phase a month prior to each start date to simulations without considering the AMOC phase and find subtle influence of the AMOC mechanism on seasonal SST prediction skill. We find higher subtropical SST hindcast skill at a 2–4-month lead time for June–July–August (JJA) SSTA composites based on the AMOC phase at May start dates than for the full time period. In other regions and seasons, we find a negligible impact of the AMOC seesaw mechanism on seasonal SST predictions due to atmospheric influence, calling for caution when considering such a mechanism. Our method shows that, for May start dates following strong AMOC phases, summer SST hindcast skill over the subtropics increases significantly compared to that of weak AMOC phases. This suggests that in the assessment of SST skill for a season ahead an eye should be kept on the initial AMOC state.

scholarly journals Can sparse proxy data constrain the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation?

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 419-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Kurahashi-Nakamura ◽  
M. Losch ◽  
A. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Surface Temperature Data

Abstract. In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

scholarly journals Can sparse proxy data constrain the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation?

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 4417-4445
Author(s):  
T. Kurahashi-Nakamura ◽  
M. Losch ◽  
A. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Surface Temperature Data

Abstract. In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 yr before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential of providing estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general paleo-sea surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional salinity data in the deep ocean and at the sea surface are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation and as expected, reducing proxy-data errors improves the solutions. Whereas increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure from greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project appear sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

scholarly journals How Much Have Variations in the Meridional Overturning Circulation Contributed to Sea Surface Temperature Trends since 1850? A Study with the EC-Earth Global Climate Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6343-6357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torben Schmith ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
Emily Gleeson ◽  
Tido Semmler
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The surface of the world’s oceans has been warming since the beginning of industrialization. In addition to this, multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variations of internal origin exist. Evidence suggests that the North Atlantic Ocean exhibits the strongest multidecadal SST variations and that these variations are connected to the overturning circulation. This work investigates the extent to which these internal multidecadal variations have contributed to enhancing or diminishing the trend induced by the external radiative forcing, globally and in the North Atlantic. A model study is carried out wherein the analyses of a long control simulation with constant radiative forcing at preindustrial level and of an ensemble of simulations with historical forcing from 1850 until 2005 are combined. First, it is noted that global SST trends calculated from the different historical simulations are similar, while there is a large disagreement between the North Atlantic SST trends. Then the control simulation is analyzed, where a relationship between SST anomalies and anomalies in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) for multidecadal and longer time scales is identified. This relationship enables the extraction of the AMOC-related SST variability from each individual member of the ensemble of historical simulations and then the calculation of the SST trends with the AMOC-related variability excluded. For the global SST trends this causes only a little difference while SST trends with AMOC-related variability excluded for the North Atlantic show closer agreement than with the AMOC-related variability included. From this it is concluded that AMOC variability has contributed significantly to North Atlantic SST trends since the mid nineteenth century.

Impact of Arctic gateways closure on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Pliocene

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Weiffenbach ◽  
Michiel Baatsen ◽  
Anna von der Heydt
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning

<p>The mid-Pliocene climate is the most recent geological period with a greenhouse gas concentration of approximately 400 ppmv, similar to the present day. Proxy reconstructions indicate enhanced warming in the high North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene, which has been suggested to be a response to a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). PlioMIP2 ensemble results show a stronger AMOC and simulated North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) match reconstructions better than PlioMIP1. A major difference between PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 is the closure of the Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago in the Pliocene. Previous studies have shown that closure of these Arctic gateways leads to an enhanced AMOC due to altered freshwater fluxes in the Arctic.</p><p>Analysis of our Community Earth System Model (CESM1) simulations shows that the simulated increase in North Atlantic SSTs and strengthened AMOC in the Pliocene is a result of Pliocene boundary conditions rather than CO<sub>2</sub> concentration increase. Here we compare results from two runs with pre-industrial boundary conditions and 280 and 560 ppmv CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and three runs with PlioMIP2 boundary conditions and 280, 400 and 560 ppmv CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. Results show a 10-15% stronger AMOC in the Pliocene simulations as well as enhanced warming and saltening of the North Atlantic sea surface. While there is a stronger AMOC, the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) in the Pliocene simulations only increases 0-3% with respect to the pre-industrial. Analysis indicates there is an altered relationship between the AMOC and OHT in the Pliocene, pointing to fundamentally different behavior of the AMOC in the Pliocene simulations. This is supported by a specific spatial pattern of deep water formation (DWF) areas in the Pliocene simulations that is significantly different from that of the pre-industrial. In the Pliocene simulations, DWF areas adjacent to south Greenland disappear and new DWF areas appear further southwards in the Labrador Sea off the coast of Newfounland. These results indicate that insight into the effect of the palaeogeographic boundary conditions is crucial to understanding the Pliocene climate and its potential as a geological equivalent to a future greenhouse climate.</p>

scholarly journals Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Ocean Science ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 881-891 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-E. Brunnabend ◽  
H. A. Dijkstra ◽  
M. A. Kliphuis ◽  
B. van Werkhoven ◽  
H. E. Bal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface Height ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract. As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect of ocean model resolution on these SSH changes: a high-resolution (HR) strongly eddying version and a low-resolution (LR) version in which the effect of eddies is parameterised. The weakening of the AMOC is induced in both model versions by applying strong freshwater perturbations around Greenland. A rapid decrease of the AMOC in the HR version induces much shorter return times of several specific regional and coastal extremes in North Atlantic SSH than in the LR version. This effect is caused by a change in main eddy pathways associated with a change in separation latitude of the Gulf Stream.

scholarly journals Early-onset of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakening in response to atmospheric CO2 concentration

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihai Dima ◽  
Denis R. Nichita ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann ◽  
Monica Ionita ◽  
Mirela Voiculescu
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning

AbstractThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a tipping component of the climate system, is projected to slowdown during the 21st century in response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. The rate and start of the weakening are associated with relatively large uncertainties. Observed sea surface temperature-based reconstructions indicate that AMOC has been weakening since the mid-20th century, but its forcing factors are not fully understood. Here we provide dynamical observational evidence that the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration affects the North Atlantic heat fluxes and precipitation rate, and weakens AMOC, consistent with numerical simulations. The inferred weakening, starting in the late 19th century, earlier than previously suggested, is estimated at 3.7 ± 1.0 Sv over the 1854–2016 period, which is larger than it is shown in numerical simulations (1.4 ± 1.4 Sv).

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