The Timescale of Economic Model How Long is the Long Run?

1971 ◽  
pp. 248-263
Author(s):  
A. B. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
pp. 50-62
Author(s):  
Natalia O. Prokopenko

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the strategic concept of national economy development in the focus of design management. Methodology. General scientific methods are used in the research, in particular theoretical generalization – to determine the theoretical foundations and trends of content and components of design management; system economic analysis – to substantiate the model of strategic economic transformations management in the context of design management; statistical analysis, namely correlation-regression analysis – to study the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and social indicators. Results. It is proved that the current economic model of the national economy is unsuitable for achieving the goals of sustainable development, ensuring the competitiveness of the state in the global environment and a decent standard of living in the long run. Attempts to improve (reform) certain parameters and components of the outdated model may lead to a loss of time and resources, which will cause Ukraine to further lag behind the developed countries of the world. Solving the problem of ensuring a decent living standard for citizens and the human potential development requires a comprehensive reengineering of the structure and processes of the socio-economic system based on design management. Design management is an innovative concept of thinking. The study of its features allowed to formulate our own approach to determining the strategic management of the national economy. Under this approach, it is proposed to understand the process of designing a socio-economic model of development. The parameters of its operation will guarantee a decent satisfaction level of the population needs in the long run, the choice of a system of optimal strategies and mechanisms for their implementation, taking into account the factors of national security and environmental protection. The corresponding model of strategic management of economic transformations is substantiated. The main directions and priorities of economic policy (sectoral, fiscal, tariff, customs and public procurement policy) aimed at the implementation of qualitative structural transformations to ensure economic growth of the national economy in the strategic perspective are given. The correlation-regression analysis of influence of separate macroeconomic parameters is carried out. Among them: GDP, gross value added, gross capital formation and export balance, ensuring household income growth and employment. According to the design concept, they are key factors in social development. According to the analysis results the number of people employed in the economy by 72–73% correlates with GDP and GVA growth, but this relationship turned out to be negative. One of the reasons for the negative correlation may be the growth of labour productivity due to the introduction of innovative technologies. Practical meaning. Employment growth is also negatively affected by the processes of optimizing the number of employees in enterprises due to certain structural changes, including reduction of the share of industry in the structure of GDP, reduction of employees in the budget sphere and increase of the services sector, which does not require such a large number of employees. In the future, the extrapolation of these trends threatens to further deteriorate the labour market. Prospects for further research. Using correlation-regression analysis, close correlations have been established between household incomes and the growth of gross value added in the economy, the increase in the export balance and the gross accumulation of capital. Using correlation-regression analysis, close correlations have been established between household incomes and the growth of gross value added in the economy, the increase in the export balance and the gross accumulation of capital. This indicates the priority of developing economic activities with a high level of value added, increasing exports and capital investment as imperative factors in reducing poverty in the long run.


1994 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. Amer ◽  
G. C. Fox ◽  
C. Smith

AbstractMethods which estimate the effects on farm profit of a change in a genetic trait (economic weight) are compared. A neoclassical economic model based on a Cobb Douglas type production function, is extended to the long run and compared with a conventional profit equation for two types of trait changes. With this model, an optimal production plan can be derived for the farm which depends on input prices and the production function parameters. In the calculation of economic weights by animal breeders, costs are usually linear with respect to farm output, and so input levels and output are determined arbitrarily. Differences between methods for the estimation of both absolute and relative economic weights are shown to be small for proportional trait changes of 0·01 to 0·05. However, for proportional trait changes of 0·3, proportional differences were from 0·01 to 0·75 and from 0 to 0·6 for absolute and relative economic weights respectively, depending on the production function parameters. This dependence on the size of the trait change is attributed to the non-linearity of the production function. The effects of ‘rescaling’, which implicitly discounts economic weights for output increasing traits, are also evaluated. Absolute and relative ‘rescaled’ economic weights for 0·01 proportional trait changes are shown to differ proportionally from those estimated by the neoclassical economic model by from 0·14 and 0·12 to 0·50 respectively. For 0·3 trait changes, proportional differences were from 0·16 to 0·79 and from 0·8 to 0·43 for absolute and relative trait changes respectively. The results have important implications for conventional breeding programmes, and the economic evaluation of breeds and major genes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-56
Author(s):  
Mohammad ALAWIN ◽  
Mohammad OQAILY

In order to achieve that goal, the study presents theoretical and econometricframework for an economic model that includes the determinants of inflation wherecurrent account deficit is one of them. The study finds out that the increase in currentaccount deficit affects domestic inflation negatively in the long run. This result would beattributed to the fact that current account deficit absorbs big part of the excess in thedomestic demand, in addition to the long run flexibility of the economy to producesubstitutes for imported goods. However, in the short run, it was found that currentaccount deficit affects domestic inflation positively. It was found that for this period thereis no enough flexibility for the Jordanian economy to produce enough goods to substituteimports, which leads to inflation.


2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederick V. Malmstrom ◽  
David Mullin ◽  
Gary Mears

Author(s):  
Vivaldo Mendes ◽  
Diana A. Mendes
Keyword(s):  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document