Currency substitution as an automatic stabilizer

In the presence of frictions, the existing literature shows that currency substitution is detrimental for domestic aggregate stability. This paper singles out the role of currency substitution and shows that diversified currency holdings operate as an automatic stabilizer that mitigates belief-driven cyclical fluctuations in Farmer’s (1997) indeterminate monetary economy. When the foreign inflation rate is lower than the domestic inflation rate, the model’s steady state always displays saddle-path stability. Hence, equilibrium indeterminacy originally present in the domestic country is entirely removed in the presence of diversified currency holdings. When the foreign inflation rate is higher than the domestic inflation rate, then depending on the degrees of currency substitution and relative risk aversion, indeterminacy is either impossible or the requisite level of the foreign inflation rate for indeterminacy is too high to square with data. The stabilizing effect of diversified currency holdings on domestic aggregate stability is robust to whether domestic and foreign currencies display as Edgeworth substitutes or complements, or are additively separable in the household’s preferences.

The Role of Fiscal Policy in The Inflation: VAR Analysis of Kazakhstan’s Economy, 2005-2020

The paper analyzes the patterns of dynamic effects of fiscal policy to domestic inflation in the context of a small open economy. Using 4-variable (government spending, fiscal deficit, money stock (M2), and domestic inflation rate) vector autoregression model estimated with quarterly data for Kazakhstan’s economy in the period of 2005Q1-2020Q1. We distinguish between government expenditure on consumption and investment. As a result, we find that a fiscal policy shock have certain positive effects on the inflation rate. In particular, social protection spending adds 1% to the inflation rate in the following four quarters, while the government capital purchases do not produce sizable effect on inflation dynamics even in the longer term horizons. Overall, for the fiscal policy to become inflation-neutral, we suggest several policy recommendations.

Petroleum Pump Price Swing and Consumer Price Index Nexus in Nigeria: New Evidence from NARDL

The study analyses the role of the petroleum pump price on the consumer price index in Nigeria, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive distributive lag method was used to estimate the time-series data, spanning from 1980 to 2020. The study reveals a long-run equilibrium was found between the consumer price index and petroleum pump price measures. The empirical results obtained revealed an asymmetric relationship between the petroleum pump price and the consumer price index in Nigeria. The study recommended that the policymakers should transparently commit resources into rehabilitation and maintenance of domestic refineries to enhance their functionality and as well reduce importation cost to curtail frequent petroleum pump price adjustment that spiral domestic inflation.

Commodity Price Changes and Domestic Inflation in the CEMAC Zone: Evidence from Panel Cointegration

In this study, we highlight the issue of the recent rise of food prices and other commodities on domestic inflation in the CEMAC zone. Results show that there is a long-run relationship between consumer price index, commodity prices and traditional determinants of inflation. Indeed, an appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate and a rise of interest rate reduce domestic inflation while excessive money supply and a surge of commodity prices are potential sources of inflation in the region. Moreover, Pass-through from commodity price changes to domestic inflation in the region is incomplete because of the CFA Franc peg to Euro. An efficient use of the tools of monetary policy and a coordinated food policy on crops are more likely to reduce inflationary pressures in the region.

Measuring Inflow of Remittances in Six ASEAN Countries Using Macroeconomic Variables: Panel Data Analysis

Tempted by the economic potential offered by other countries makes people flocked to get the opportunity to improve their economy. Evidenced by the large number of international migrants throughout the world, this figure is in line with the high total remittance flow that leads to their country of origin. Countries in ASEAN become remittance recipients with quite high growth each year, so it is interesting to study further. Using panel data from six countries in ASEAN in 2000-2016, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic inflation, exchange rates, age dependency ratios and financial development are included as variables that affect remittances. The analytical method used is panel data with Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The results of the panel data found that the independent variables, including GDP per capita, domestic inflation, exchange rates, age dependency ratios and financial developments had a positive and significant effect on remittance flows in ASEAN in the period of 2000-2016

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF INFLATION, INTEREST RATE, THE MONEY SUPPLY ON RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE PERIOD 1996-2014

The data source is from Bank Indonesia (BI), the result of this research shows that the domestic inflation has a significant positive influence to rupiah exchange rate toword American Dollar, and cash rate ratio has a negative influence to Rupiah exchange rate with American Dollar, while overseas inflation, domestic interest rate , overseas interest rate they do not have significant influence toword Rupiah exchange rate with American Dollar. From the determination coefficient result (R2) show that the subject which has been researched can explain 93,11 percent toword Rupiah exchange rate while the rest 3,89 percent can be explained by other subject out of model.

The Study on the Influence of Terms of Trade on Regional Inflation – Based on the Mixed NKPC Model Under the Opening Economy Condition

Based on the panel data from 1990 to 2018, this paper analyzes the regional difference in the impact of changes in price terms of trade and changes in income terms of trade on inflation by establishing the Hybrid NKPC model under the open economy. The empirical results show that the changes in price terms of trade and the changes in expected price have a significant negative and positive impact on the current inflation rate for each region. The changes in income terms of trade and the changes in expected income terms of trade have significant negative and positive effects on the inflation for each region. There is a significant difference in the degree of impact on the regional inflation and the degree of impact will further strengthen. Therefore, the change in terms of trade is an important determinant of the level and trend of domestic inflation in both the short term and long term.