Real and Monetary Determinants of Non-Oil Primary Commodity Price Movements

1983 ◽  
pp. 115-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enzo R. Grilli ◽  
Maw-cheng Yang ◽  
A. Quadrio-Curzio ◽  
Paolo Sylos Labini
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Primary Commodity ◽  
Price Movements

Rebel Primary Commodity Markets, Price Shocks, and Supplier Victimization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelsea L Estancona
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Supplier Relationships ◽  
Primary Commodity ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Reputational Costs ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Do So

Abstract Rebel organizations often benefit from the sale of primary commodities. However, producing these commodities may require labor from noncombatants. Rebels provide security and payment to civilian suppliers, but their ability to do so depends on consistent profits. How, then, do price shocks to labor-intensive primary commodities undermine rebel–supplier relationships? I hypothesize that negative commodity price shocks lead cash-strapped rebels to ensure suppliers’ loyalty by substituting coercion for positive incentives. Conversely, states seek to limit rapid increases in rebels’ profit while avoiding the reputational costs of civilian victimization. Thus, victimization of rebel suppliers from groups such as pro-government paramilitaries is hypothesized to increase after positive commodity price shocks. I test these hypotheses with a new dataset covering 1999–2007 that combines monthly US STRIDE (System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence) data on cocaine price with municipal-level data from the Colombian Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica about the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) and paramilitary groups’ use of civilian victimization.

Export Prices of Primary Producers

1979 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 57-60
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
International Markets ◽  
The Other ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Primary Producers ◽  
Index Numbers ◽  
Weighting System ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Price Movements

Our commodity price indices have been published for twenty years, since the first issue of the Economic Review. They differed from the other indicators of price movements in free international markets available at that time in that their weighting system was geared to the exports of primary producing countries. This pioneering statistical exercise proved worthwhile, since these index numbers are now fairly widely used and their value, as an analytical and forecasting tool, was quickly recognised in estimating, amongst other things, the import potential of primary producing countries.

The effects of climate on corn price movements in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiaoyu Deng ◽  
Xun Sun
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Temperature Stress ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
Price Movements

<p>Corn is the 1st economic field crop in the world, whose price stability guarantees sustainable and equitable food security. Most previous farm commodity price prediction model only focus on detecting the autoregression of historical transaction, while ignoring other factors. For agricultural commodities, different climate condition leads to different harvest situation, thus bringing volatility to prices. Therefore, it is reasonable to propose a method based on climate indices to measure the degree of their influence on price fluctuation.</p><p>A multiple regression model is developed for predicting corn price movements at the nation level. The June-September season is selected to target the essential growing stages of corn which are especially sensitive to drought, high temperature stress and water stress. In order to describe the movements of price, the price difference between June and September is chosen as the dependent variable. Daily climate data are obtained from PRISM which integrates both satellite and meteorological station observation data, and monthly price data are sourced from USDA. 39-year trend from 1981-2019 is explored to construct a predictive model. The results show that the accuracy of predicting up and down of price is 85%. Specifically, temperature in July has an identifiable effect on price movements which explains 36.99% price variation. These results imply that during the key growing period, climate indices occupy an important position on improving crop price forecast ability.</p>

Policy Responses to Commodity Price Movements—1

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-469
Author(s):  
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas ◽  
M Ayhan Kose ◽  
Thomas Helbling
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Price Movements

Three New Price Indices

1959 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 32-35
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
List Type ◽  
Type Number ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Industrial Materials ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Current Price

Three new commodity price indices have been compiled by the National Institute and appear in table 20 of the Statistical Appendix (page 50). Their purpose is to give an early (but necessarily rough) indication of current price movements in three trade flows: (a)in United Kingdom imports, with sub-indices for food and tobacco, industrial materials and fuel,(b)in the exports of the overseas sterling area,(c)in the exports of primary producing countries in total.

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