Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith

We show that explicitly modeling primary commodities in an otherwise totally standard incomplete markets open economy model can go a long way in explaining the Mussa puzzle and the Backus-Smith puzzle, two of the main puzzles in the international economics literature.

Economical Situation in Sub-Saharan African Countries

What began as a single COVID-19 case in China in late 2019 quickly spread around the globe in the first quarter of 2020. While the impact on the world’s health systems is unknown, the economic toll remains also remains unknown as the world grapples with an unprecedented global recession. This paper estimates that COVID-19 will drag African economies into a fall of about 2,1% in GDP, with smaller economies facing contraction of up to 8%. The contraction is mainly a result of export adjustments affecting primary commodity exporters, and the attendant losses to tax revenue which reduce the capacity of government to extend the public services necessary to respond to the crisis.

Rebel Primary Commodity Markets, Price Shocks, and Supplier Victimization

Rebel organizations often benefit from the sale of primary commodities. However, producing these commodities may require labor from noncombatants. Rebels provide security and payment to civilian suppliers, but their ability to do so depends on consistent profits. How, then, do price shocks to labor-intensive primary commodities undermine rebel–supplier relationships? I hypothesize that negative commodity price shocks lead cash-strapped rebels to ensure suppliers’ loyalty by substituting coercion for positive incentives. Conversely, states seek to limit rapid increases in rebels’ profit while avoiding the reputational costs of civilian victimization. Thus, victimization of rebel suppliers from groups such as pro-government paramilitaries is hypothesized to increase after positive commodity price shocks. I test these hypotheses with a new dataset covering 1999–2007 that combines monthly US STRIDE (System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence) data on cocaine price with municipal-level data from the Colombian Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica about the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) and paramilitary groups’ use of civilian victimization.

Analisis Sektor Primer Unggulan Kabupaten Sragen dan Distribusi Spasialnya Tahun 2016-2017

The purpose of regional development is to improve the standard of living and welfare of the community. Therefore, local governments must strive to improve the welfare of the community. Improving community welfare can be done through developing existing potential through superior commodities. The purpose of this study was to find out the analysis of the superior primary out the superior primary sector of Sragen District and its spatial distribution in 2016- 2017. The method used in this study is to use Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ) and Geographic Information System (SIG). The data used in the form of Sragen Regency primary commodity production data in 2016-2017 and primary commodity production data for Central Java ProvinceS 2016-2017. From the result if the analysis, it can be concluded that from the result of DLQ, the primary sector which is the leading commodity is green beans, large chillies, tomatoes, kale, eggplant, watermelon, bananas and aquaculture. Wheareas based on thr geographich information system approach model shows that superior primary commodity of green beans is spread in the Tanon Region. Chili spread in the Kedawung area, Tanon, Plupuh, Gemolong, Gondang, Kalijambe, Karangmalang, Masaran, Miri, Ngrampal, Sambungmacan, Sambirejo, Sumberlawang and Sukodono. Tomatoes spread in the Gemolong area, Sidoharjo and Tanon. Kale spread in the Miri area, Mondokan, Sukodono. Eggplant spread in the Mondokan area, Sambungmacan and Tangen. Semangka tersebar di wilayah Plupuh and Sumberlawang. Watermelon spread in the Plupuh dan Sumberlawang area. Bananas spread in the Gemolong, Gesi, Gondang, Jenar, Kalijambe, Kedawung, Masaran, Miri, Mondokan, Ngrampal, Plupuh, Sambirejo, Sambungmacan, Sukodono, Sumberlawang, Tangen and Tanon.