Calibrating and Combining Precipitation Probability Forecasts

1987 ◽  
pp. 97-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert T. Clemen ◽  
Robert L. Winkler
Keyword(s):  
Probability Forecasts

Subjective Probability Forecasts for Recessions

2006 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kajal Lahiri ◽  
J George Wang
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Forecasts

Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Mislavsky ◽  
Celia Gaertig
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Combination Strategy ◽  
Consumer Decisions ◽  
Probability Forecasts ◽  
Rule Out ◽  
As If

How do we combine others’ probability forecasts? Prior research has shown that when advisors provide numeric probability forecasts, people typically average them (i.e., they move closer to the average advisor’s forecast). However, what if the advisors say that an event is “likely” or “probable?” In eight studies (n = 7,334), we find that people are more likely to act as if they “count” verbal probabilities (i.e., they move closer to certainty than any individual advisor’s forecast) than they are to “count” numeric probabilities. For example, when the advisors both say an event is “likely,” participants will say that it is “very likely.” This effect occurs for both probabilities above and below 50%, for hypothetical scenarios and real events, and when presenting the others’ forecasts simultaneously or sequentially. We also show that this combination strategy carries over to subsequent consumer decisions that rely on advisors’ likelihood judgments. We discuss and rule out several candidate mechanisms for our effect. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, decision analysis.

On the Nature of the Nonexistence of Ordinal Relationships between Measures of the Accuracy and Value of Probability Forecasts : An Example

1977 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1015-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan H. Murphy ◽  
Jack C. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Existence And Nonexistence ◽  
Fruit Orchard ◽  
Probability Forecasts

Abstract t has been shown previously that ordinal relationships between measures of the accuracy and value ofprobability forecasts do not exist, in general, in N-state (N > 2) situations. Some implications of this resultare illustrated by comparing the accuracy and value of such forecasts in a realistic decision-making situation-a three-action, three-state situation involving the protection of a fruit orchard against frosts and freezes.Geometrical interpretations of the forecasts and measures are described and then used to investigate the existence of ordinal relationships in this so-called fruit-frost situation. The results indicate, as expected, thatan increase in forecast accuracy can lead to a decrease in forecast value. Some generalizations and speculations related to the existence and nonexistence of such ordinal relationships are presented.

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