Forecasting Tourism Demand in Europe

The tourism industry is sensitive to global and regional political, economic and social events and phenomena, and has also demonstrated a strong response force and speed to regain the path of positive growth despite the not favorable state of the world economy and indicators the moderate development that it has performed, as well as the uncertainty highlighted in the demand in general and tourism in particular because of the low level of demand for this product category. In any marketing strategy that has four components of mix marketing: product, pricing, distribution, and promotion are needed, as they play a useful role, though they do not have the same weight. Some of these elements and, in some cases, only one of them has a determining role in comparison to competitors and, consequently, are the key factor to succeed. The role of the product, a better price, the sales force or the distribution network more efficiently than the competitors, the promotion policy, etc. may be the role. Distribution includes all possibilities, ways, and methods for dispersing products across market segments, locations to direct customer contact. Distribution is one of the mixing marketing elements. It has direct links to product policy, pricing and promotion policy. For the successful realization of the marketing strategy it is important to supply customers with certain products. Likewise, these products should be available in a certain amount, in certain places, and at the time when the consumer so requests. In surveys of demand measurement in the tourism and travel industry, the use of some basic indicators is noted. Although the independent variables involved in tourism demand measurement models vary greatly according to the objectives and the field of specialization and research of researchers, the use of some basic indicators as a measure of tourist demand variables in its modeling and forecast makes it possible standardization of data and their unified reporting at the global and local level. The variation of tourist achievement is the most used for measuring tourism demand at least in the last twenty years. Specifically, this variable is measured by the total tourist achievement from a source to a destination, which can further be disrupted in tourist achievements for holiday purposes, business travel achievements, tourist achievements for family and friends visits, tourist achievements by means of travel, such as air, sea, road and so on. Some studies also use destination spending as a demand-measurement variable, while other researchers are even more rigorous using tourist spending for specific categories and certain products and purchases in general. Other indicators used are tourism income, employment in the tourism and travel industry, as well as exports and imports.

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Economic modeling of touristic services demand in the regions

Regional Economy ◽

10.36818/1562-0905-2019-4-7 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 87-93

Author(s):

Ivan Blahun ◽

Halyna Leshchuk ◽

Mariya Kyfor

Keyword(s):

Systematic Approach ◽

Income Elasticity ◽

Probability Model ◽

Economic Modeling ◽

Tourism Demand ◽

Goods And Services ◽

Household Incomes ◽

Tourism Services ◽

Income Decile

Considering the important role of tourism in the socio-economic development of regions, the need for information and modeling of ways to increase demand for tourism services and tourism development is being updated. The article uses methods of analytical, logical, comparative analysis and systematic approach to study trends in demand for tourist services in Ukraine. Econometric modeling analyzes the demand for tourism services by the level of income and expenditures of the population in 2018. Trends in demand for tourism services in 2018 in terms of income and expenditure of the population with the use of the Tornquist econometric model have been analyzed. It is proposed to use the decile groups of the population for analyzing income and expenditure by the level of income, total income per capita, the level of household expenditure relative to income, the percentage of tourism expenditure by households, the expenditure on tourism and the elasticity of tourism demand. Average values of the population’s expenditures on tourism were established, which helped to determine the elasticity of effective demand for each decile group. The more than one unit of elasticity of effective tourism demand for each decile group indicated that tourism services for domestic households belong to the group of luxury goods and services. It should be noted that in the following decile income groups of households there is a decrease in elasticity. It means that when income tends to increase indefinitely, elasticity coefficients fall, and this indicates a stabilization of costs of this type. In this case, the percentage of households in each decile group that recorded the costs of organized tourism in their budgets and the value of the probability of household participation in this form of recreation was determined based on an estimated probability model. An analysis of the values of income elasticity indicators in each income decile group has shown that increasing household incomes contribute to increased demand for tourism services and an increase in the share of expenditures for these purposes in household budgets.

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The Nexus Between Seniors' Tourism Expenditure and Well-Being in China

Tourism Analysis ◽

10.3727/108354220x15758301241620 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 25 (1) ◽

pp. 169-174

Author(s):

Renuka Mahadevan ◽

Vanessa Sha Fan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Life Satisfaction ◽

Government Policy ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Empirical Relationship ◽

Well Being ◽

Tourism Demand ◽

Leisure Travel ◽

Policy Strategy ◽

Tourism Expenditure

An examination of the two-way relationship between tourism expenditure and life satisfaction for seniors is undertaken in this article. This examination uses panel data on China's seniors and tracks the same seniors over 3 years. Results show that there is bidirectional causality between tourism expenditure and life satisfaction, casting doubt on previous studies that do not consider this two-way relationship. This empirical relationship highlights the importance of a two-pronged policy strategy— a government policy committed to social tourism programs for seniors who may not be able to afford travel and those who reside in rural areas. Another government strategy is to address aged concerns related to mobility and health to improve well-being and the provision of appropriate facilities for leisure travel. Senior tourism demand was found to be income inelastic and this result means that senior tourism can buffer Chinese economic growth in times of economic crisis and uncertainty, making the twin policy strategy a worthwhile consideration.

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