Based on the management of big data, the analysis and forecast of the employment demand cycle business situation studied in this article is based on the employment cycle theory and a complete set of employment monitoring, employment evaluation, employment forecasting, and policy selection theories and strategies developed around the employment cycle fluctuations, a specific employment phenomenon. First, systematically evaluate the current state of the employment demand boom, appropriately reflect the hot and cold degree of the employment demand boom, and provide necessary information for the government’s regulatory measures, content, and timing. Secondly, it reflects the regulatory effects of graduate employment monitoring, judging whether graduate employment monitoring measures are properly applied, whether they have the effect of smoothing out employment fluctuations, and promoting the country’s employment demand; in addition, business decision makers can take advantage of the employment demand boom, by monitoring the information provided by the early warning system and timely foreseeing the upcoming macrocontrol measures, so that enterprises’ labor adjustments can adapt to the government’s regulatory measures. At the same time, the model proposes a prosperity index method for monitoring and early warning of the employment demand cycle. After selecting and dividing three types of prosperity indicators, the DI index reflecting the trend of the prosperity change and the CI index reflecting the strength of the prosperity change are calculated and constructed. The national employment demand boom monitoring and early warning signal system predicts the trend of the employment boom cycle outside the sample period. The experimental results show that the cyclic prosperity forecast results are consistent not only with the national employment demand prosperity in recent months, but also with the use of the structural measurement ARIMA (p, d, q) model. The alertness value is close, indicating that this indicator system has a good effect on the national employment demand boom monitoring and early warning.
An Empirical Study on the Employment Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanism of Medical Graduates in Universities with Big Data and Complex Computing System