Background on Uncertainty Assessment Supporting Climate Adaptation Decision-Making

Author(s):  
Leendert van Bree ◽  
Jeroen van der Sluijs
2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (03) ◽  
pp. 445-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Li ◽  
Michael Mullan ◽  
Jennifer Helgeson

Abstract:The development of national and sectoral climate change adaptation strategies is burgeoning in the US and elsewhere in response to damages from extreme events and projected future risks from climate change. Increasingly, decision makers are requesting information on the economic damages of climate change as well as costs, benefits, and tradeoffs of alternative actions to inform climate adaptation decisions. This paper provides a practical view of the applications of economic analysis to aid climate change adaptation decision making, with a focus on benefit-cost analysis (BCA). We review the recent developments and applications of BCA with implications for climate risk management and adaptation decision making, both in the US and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. We found that BCA is still in early stages of development for evaluating adaptation decisions, and to date is mostly being applied to investment project-based appraisals. Moreover, the best practices of economic analysis are not fully reflected in the BCAs of climate adaptation-relevant decisions. The diversity of adaptation measures and decision-making contexts suggest that evaluation of adaptation measures may require multiple analytical methods. The economic tools and information would need to be transparent, accessible, and match with the decision contexts to be effective in enhancing decision making. Based on the current evidence, a set of analytical considerations is proposed for improving economic analysis of climate adaptation that includes the need to better address uncertainty and to understand the cross-sector and general equilibrium effects of sectoral and national adaptation policy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anmol Arora

Global environmental change has exacerbated the vulnerabilities of pastoral communities in India, who have already been sidelined in the current development and modernization discourse. The Raikas are one of the largest groups of indigenous nomadic pastoralists residing in the semi-arid regions of Northwest India. They are facing the brunt of shrinking grazing areas, social marginalization, and economic pressures. The past two decades have witnessed additional challenges, such as water scarcity and rainfall variability, which have pushed them beyond their adaptive threshold. These churnings have led to a radical shift in their values and climate adaptation strategies. However, the role and importance of social values in shaping their response to environmental change are not well understood. This study conducted life history interviews and focus group discussions with community members to examine social values and their linkages with climate adaptation decision-making in Raikas. The findings demonstrate that the community’s livelihood, health, and social cohesion are severely affected by environmental change, entwined with social, economic, and political stressors. There is a parallel change taking place in their social values. Their values related to esteem, self-actualization, safety, and belongingness have witnessed shifts, leading them away from pastoralism. This has ramifications on their adaptation decision-making. Their time-tested and preferred choice of adaptation in the face of drought and water scarcity – seasonal livestock migration – is no longer desirable. New adaptation options, such as urban migration, have emerged, while traditional measures have declined in popularity. There is an urgent need to understand and engage with a broader set of methodologies and literature to facilitate the integration of social values in vulnerability and adaptation assessments. The inclusion of social values presents an opportunity to understand the subjective limits of adaptation better as well as to expand adaptation pathways.


Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregg Garfin ◽  
Mary Black ◽  
Erika Rowland

Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation Decision Making; Tucson, Arizona, 31 March to 1 April 2015


Author(s):  
Jerald Ramsden ◽  
Justin Lennon ◽  
Benny Louie

The Gulf Coast Study is an initiative from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Office of Sustainability to study the projected impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure in the Gulf Coast region. The Phase 2 portion of the Gulf Coast Study was focused on the greater Mobile, Alabama, area with the purpose of providing detailed assessments of the performance of critical infrastructure under specific climate change threats in a coastal environment. This presentation will include a discussion of the Adaptation Decision-making Assessment Process (ADAP) that was developed by WSP in conjunction with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), (2016). The Gulf Coast Phase 2 Pilot Study included an Engineering Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures FHWA (2014) that followed the 11-step ADAP process. The process was applied to 10 case studies. Two of these case studies are presented, highlighting application of ADAP to coastal transportation infrastructure.


2017 ◽  
Vol 146 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 75-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd A. Ontl ◽  
Chris Swanston ◽  
Leslie A. Brandt ◽  
Patricia R. Butler ◽  
Anthony W. D’Amato ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 16226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sondoss Elsawah ◽  
Tatiana Filatova ◽  
Anthony J. Jakeman ◽  
Albert J. Kettner ◽  
Moira L. Zellner ◽  
...  

Modeling is essential to characterize and explore complex societal and environmental issues in systematic and collaborative ways. Socio-environmental systems (SES) modeling integrates knowledge and perspectives into conceptual and computational tools that explicitly recognize how human decisions affect the environment. Depending on the modeling purpose, many SES modelers also realize that involvement of stakeholders and experts is fundamental to support social learning and decision-making processes for achieving improved environmental and social outcomes. The contribution of this paper lies in identifying and formulating grand challenges that need to be overcome to accelerate the development and adaptation of SES modeling. Eight challenges are delineated: bridging epistemologies across disciplines; multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment and management; scales and scaling issues; combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data; furthering the adoption and impacts of SES modeling on policy; capturing structural changes; representing human dimensions in SES; and leveraging new data types and sources. These challenges limit our ability to effectively use SES modeling to provide the knowledge and information essential for supporting decision making. Whereas some of these challenges are not unique to SES modeling and may be pervasive in other scientific fields, they still act as barriers as well as research opportunities for the SES modeling community. For each challenge, we outline basic steps that can be taken to surmount the underpinning barriers. Thus, the paper identifies priority research areas in SES modeling, chiefly related to progressing modeling products, processes and practices.


2014 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 600-611 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Juhola ◽  
M. E. Goodsite ◽  
M. Davis ◽  
R. J. T. Klein ◽  
B. Davídsdóttir ◽  
...  

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