An Assessment of the Water Resources Availability and of the Flood Hazard in a Climate Change Scenario in Tuscany

2014 ◽  
pp. 129-133
Author(s):  
Campo Lorenzo ◽  
Caparrini Francesca
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Water Resources Availability

Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Flood Hazard of the Middle Brahmaputra Reach, India

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 573-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subashisa Dutta ◽  
◽  
Shyamal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Flood Characteristics

Being the highest specific discharge river in the world, the Brahmaputra has a large floodplain area of 700 km in length in its middle reaches falling in the high flood vulnerability category. Floods generated in upland Himalayan catchments are mainly controlled by land use and land cover, storm characteristics, and vegetation dynamics. Floods propagate through a floodplain region consisting of wetlands, paddy agriculture, and wide braided river reaches with natural constraint points (nodals) that make the reaches more vulnerable to flood hazards. In this study, a macroscale distributed hydrological model was used to obtain the flood characteristics of the reaches. A hydrological model with spatially distributed input parameters and meteorological data was simulated at (1 km × 1 km) spatial grids to estimate flood hydrographs at the main river and itsmajor tributaries. Aftermodel validation, “best guess” land use change scenarios were used to estimate potential changes in flood characteristics. Results show that at the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra, peak discharge increases by a maximum of 9% for land use change scenarios. The same model with bias-corrected climatological data from a regional climate model (RCM) simulation (PRECIS) was used to obtain future changes in flood generation and its propagation through the basin in the projected climatological scenario. Changes in flood characteristics with reference to the baseline period show that the average duration of flood waves will increase from 15.2 days in the baseline period (1961-1990) to 19.3 days in the future (2071-2100). Peak discharge will increase by an average of 21% in the future in the projected climate change scenario. After statistics on changes of flood characteristics in the projected climate change scenario (2071-2100) were obtained, a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to obtain flood inundation and velocity distribution on the floodplain. Distribution of velocity and inundation depth was spatially analyzed to obtain flood hazard zones in the projected climate change scenario. Results show that spatial variation in flood hazard zones will be significantly altered in the projected climate change scenario compared to land use/land cover changes.

scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change in the Stream Flow, Crop Yields and NP Levels at White Oak Bayou Watershed Using SWAT simulation: A Case Study

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Alminda Magbalot-Fernandez ◽  
Qianwen He ◽  
Frank Molkenthin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Soil Survey ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
White Oak ◽  
Average Plant ◽  
National Cooperative

Projected changes in temperature due to global climate change may have serious impacts on hydrologic processes, water resources availability, irrigation water demand, and thereby affecting the agricultural production and productivity. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources is of utmost importance for developing possible adaptation strategies. The White Oak Bayou, one of the several waterways that give Houston, Texas, United States its popular nickname "The Bayou City" was selected in this case study. SWAT model is process based and can simulate the hydrological cycle, crop yield, soil erosion and nutrient transport. It is operated with an interface in ArcView GIS using raster or vector datasets including the digital elevation model (DEM), soil properties, vegetation, LULC, and meteorological observations observed which were derived from the Consortium for Geospatial Information, National Cooperative Soil Survey, National Land Cover Database 2006, NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and USGS website in 2005-2008. The climate change scenario was based on the projected increase in temperature by the IPCC by 2100. This case study showed a decrease in streamflow from observed actual scenario (2005-2008) to projected increase of 4°C temperature in future climate change scenario by 2100. The evapotranspiration increased but there was a decrease in surface runoff and percolation. Moreover, there were greater average plant biomass and more average plant yields. Hence, the nitrogen and phosphorus uptake and removed in yield increased. Thus, the total nitrogen decreased while the total phosphorus is zero indicating loss of the Phosphorus content in the soil. Yet, this case study needs to be validated and calibrated with actual data to support the projected outcome.

scholarly journals Climate change scenario analysis for Baro-Akobo river basin, Southwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teressa Negassa Muleta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract Background Several water resources projects are under planning and implementation in the Baro-Akobo basin. Currently, the planning and management of these projects is relied on historical data. So far, hardly any study has addressed water resources management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change in the basin. The main bottleneck to this has been lack of future climate change scenario base data over the basin. The current study is aimed at developing future climate change scenario for the basin. To this end, Regional Climate Model (RCM) downscaled data for A1B emission scenario was employed and bias corrected at basin level using observed data. Future climate change scenario was developed using the bias corrected RCM output data with the basic objective of producing baseline data for sustainable water resources development and management in the basin. Result The projected future climate shows an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperatures; however, for the case of precipitation it does not manifest a systematic increasing or decreasing trend in the next century. The projected mean annual temperature increases from the baseline period by an amount of 1 °C and 3.5 °C respectively, in 2040s and 2090s. Similarly, evapotranspiration has been found to increase to an extent of 25% over the basin. The precipitation is predicted to experience a mean annual decrease of 1.8% in 2040s and an increase of 1.8% in 2090s over the basin for the A1B emission scenario. Conclusion The study resulted in a considerable future change in climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration) on the monthly and seasonal basis. These have an implication on hydrologic extremes-drought and flooding, and demands dynamic water resources management. Hence the study gives a valuable base information for water resources planning and managers, particularly for modeling reservoir inflow-climate change relations, to adapt reservoir operation rules to the real-time changing climate.

scholarly journals Influences of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability in Jinjiang Basin, China

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenchao Sun ◽  
Jie Wang ◽  
Zhanjie Li ◽  
Xiaolei Yao ◽  
Jingshan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rest Period ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Spring Season ◽  
Water Resources Availability

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

scholarly journals Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 385
Author(s):  
Beatrice Nöldeke ◽  
Etti Winter ◽  
Yves Laumonier ◽  
Trifosa Simamora
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Trees On Farms ◽  
Agroforestry Adoption ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.

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