scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change in the Stream Flow, Crop Yields and NP Levels at White Oak Bayou Watershed Using SWAT simulation: A Case Study

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Alminda Magbalot-Fernandez ◽  
Qianwen He ◽  
Frank Molkenthin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Soil Survey ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
White Oak ◽  
Average Plant ◽  
National Cooperative

Projected changes in temperature due to global climate change may have serious impacts on hydrologic processes, water resources availability, irrigation water demand, and thereby affecting the agricultural production and productivity. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources is of utmost importance for developing possible adaptation strategies. The White Oak Bayou, one of the several waterways that give Houston, Texas, United States its popular nickname "The Bayou City" was selected in this case study. SWAT model is process based and can simulate the hydrological cycle, crop yield, soil erosion and nutrient transport. It is operated with an interface in ArcView GIS using raster or vector datasets including the digital elevation model (DEM), soil properties, vegetation, LULC, and meteorological observations observed which were derived from the Consortium for Geospatial Information, National Cooperative Soil Survey, National Land Cover Database 2006, NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and USGS website in 2005-2008. The climate change scenario was based on the projected increase in temperature by the IPCC by 2100. This case study showed a decrease in streamflow from observed actual scenario (2005-2008) to projected increase of 4°C temperature in future climate change scenario by 2100. The evapotranspiration increased but there was a decrease in surface runoff and percolation. Moreover, there were greater average plant biomass and more average plant yields. Hence, the nitrogen and phosphorus uptake and removed in yield increased. Thus, the total nitrogen decreased while the total phosphorus is zero indicating loss of the Phosphorus content in the soil. Yet, this case study needs to be validated and calibrated with actual data to support the projected outcome.

scholarly journals ADAPTATIONS ASSESSMENT ON THE IMPACTS OF FLOODING UNDER CURRENT CONDITION AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO, CASE STUDY: CENTINI VILLAGE, INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adjie Pamungkas ◽  
Sarah Bekessy ◽  
Ruth Lane
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Community Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Model

Reducing community vulnerability to flooding is increasingly important given predicted intensive flood events in many parts of the world. We built a community vulnerability model to explore the effectiveness of a range of proactive and reactive adaptations to reduce community vulnerability to flood. The model consists of floods, victims, housings, responses, savings, expenditure and income sub models. We explore the robustness of adaptations under current conditions and under a range of future climate change scenarios. We present results of this model for a case study of Centini Village in Lamongan Municipality, Indonesia, which is highly vulnerable to the impacts of annual small-scale and infrequent extreme floods.  We compare 11 proactive adaptations using indicators of victims, damage/losses and recovery process to reflect the level of vulnerability. We find that reforestation and flood infrastructure redevelopment are the most effective proactive adaptations for minimising vulnerability to flood under current condition. Under climate change scenario, the floods are predicted to increase 17% on the average and 5% on the maximum measurements. The increasing floods result reforestation is the only effective adaptations in the future under climate change scenario.

scholarly journals Climate change scenario analysis for Baro-Akobo river basin, Southwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teressa Negassa Muleta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract Background Several water resources projects are under planning and implementation in the Baro-Akobo basin. Currently, the planning and management of these projects is relied on historical data. So far, hardly any study has addressed water resources management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change in the basin. The main bottleneck to this has been lack of future climate change scenario base data over the basin. The current study is aimed at developing future climate change scenario for the basin. To this end, Regional Climate Model (RCM) downscaled data for A1B emission scenario was employed and bias corrected at basin level using observed data. Future climate change scenario was developed using the bias corrected RCM output data with the basic objective of producing baseline data for sustainable water resources development and management in the basin. Result The projected future climate shows an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperatures; however, for the case of precipitation it does not manifest a systematic increasing or decreasing trend in the next century. The projected mean annual temperature increases from the baseline period by an amount of 1 °C and 3.5 °C respectively, in 2040s and 2090s. Similarly, evapotranspiration has been found to increase to an extent of 25% over the basin. The precipitation is predicted to experience a mean annual decrease of 1.8% in 2040s and an increase of 1.8% in 2090s over the basin for the A1B emission scenario. Conclusion The study resulted in a considerable future change in climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration) on the monthly and seasonal basis. These have an implication on hydrologic extremes-drought and flooding, and demands dynamic water resources management. Hence the study gives a valuable base information for water resources planning and managers, particularly for modeling reservoir inflow-climate change relations, to adapt reservoir operation rules to the real-time changing climate.

Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Chhetri ◽  
Hemant K. Badola ◽  
Sudip Barat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Azimuth Angle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
Present Distribution ◽  
Community Assemblages

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

scholarly journals Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bond ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Paul Reich ◽  
Janet Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

scholarly journals Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byung Sik Kim ◽  
In Gi Chang ◽  
Jang Hyun Sung ◽  
Hae Jin Han
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
The Right

The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

CHILDHOOD ASTHMA PROJECTIONS FOR ATLANTA UNDER A FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Epidemiology ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. S97
Author(s):  
Jonathan Patz ◽  
Howard Frumkin ◽  
Michell Klein ◽  
Michelle Bell ◽  
Hugh Ellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Childhood Asthma ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document