Efficient Evaluation of Influenza Mitigation Strategies Using Preventive Bandits

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.

Download Full-text

Validation to Spanish version of the COVID-19 Stress Scale

10.31234/osf.io/rcqx3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Edgar Guillermo Pulido

Keyword(s):

Mental Health ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

National Sample ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Dimensional Structure ◽

Psychosocial Effects ◽

Stress Scale ◽

Global Consensus ◽

Reliability Indicators ◽

Effective Assessment

There is a global consensus about the potential of the COVID-19 pandemic to affect people's mental health. In this context, and prior to the formulation of mitigation strategies, tools are required that allow an objective and effective assessment of mental health risk. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the psychometric characteristics of COVID-19 Stress Scale, formulated by Taylor et al. (2020), based on the concept of COVID-19 Stress Syndrome. A national sample of 1214 participating adults was taken in Colombia, who answered a translated version of the scale. Evidence of a hexa-dimensional structure was obtained whose goodness of fit indicators were Chi2 = 1215,759, Sig. =. 000, CMIN / DF = 2.202, RMSEA = .044, NFI = .943, TLI = .964, CFI =. 968 and FMIN = 1,967. Regarding reliability, an α = .924 and Spearman-Brown = .824 were obtained for the entire scale; the reliability indicators of the 6 subscales were also high. The similarities and differences in the findings with respect to the original psychometric study of the scale are discussed, as well as the utility and importance of the instrument as a tool in future efforts to mitigate the psychosocial effects of the pandemic.

Download Full-text

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

Proceedings of International Conference "Managinag risks to coastal regions and communities in a changinag world" (EMECS'11 - SeaCoasts XXVI) ◽

10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9398d1adf1.08545898 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Sergei Soldatenko ◽

Genrikh Alekseev ◽

Alexander Danilov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

System Structure ◽

The Arctic ◽

Risk Modeling ◽

Wide Range ◽

Adverse Weather ◽

The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Download Full-text