SEISMIC RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES: CASE STUDY ON A BLACK CARBON PLANT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Karagiannakis
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Industrial Plants ◽  
Plant Equipment

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.

scholarly journals An Optimized Procedure to Estimate the Economic Seismic Losses of Existing Reinforced Concrete Buildings due to Seismic Damage

Buildings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Vona ◽  
Benedetto Manganelli ◽  
Sabina Tataranna ◽  
Angelo Anelli
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Cost Ratio

The latest Italian seismic events have highlighted a high discrepancy between the potential destructiveness of an earthquake and the consequent economic losses due to damage to buildings. The main reason for this mismatch is the high number of vulnerable residential buildings or the low-to-medium vulnerability of buildings that are reaching the ends of their service lives. Awareness of the economic impact of seismic vulnerability should be a matter of primary interest for public administrations, private and insurance companies, banks, owners, and professionals, despite operating at different territorial levels and with different objectives. Quantification of the expected monetary consequence of seismic vulnerability, in terms of the probable cost of repairing earthquake damage, plays a key role in defining new and more effective seismic risk mitigation strategies. Retrofitting strategies based on intervention priority defined only according to the structural seismic risk level of buildings are incorrect. These strategies neglect several important issues, such as the financial losses caused by building damage. A new procedure for estimating the expected seismic direct economic losses resulting from building damage (repair/replacement measures) is proposed and applied. The fundamental roles of analytical fragility curves and cost ratio functions in the new procedure are highlighted.

scholarly journals A Framework for Optimizing Phytosanitary Thresholds in Seed Systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (10) ◽  
pp. 1219-1228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Alan Choudhury ◽  
Karen A. Garrett ◽  
Steven J. Klosterman ◽  
Krishna V. Subbarao ◽  
Neil McRoberts
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Agricultural Systems ◽  
Seed Systems ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Exotic Pathogens ◽  
Seedborne Pathogens ◽  
Spinach Downy Mildew ◽  
The Cost

Seedborne pathogens and pests limit production in many agricultural systems. Quarantine programs help prevent the introduction of exotic pathogens into a country, but few regulations directly apply to reducing the reintroduction and spread of endemic pathogens. Use of phytosanitary thresholds helps limit the movement of pathogen inoculum through seed, but the costs associated with rejected seed lots can be prohibitive for voluntary implementation of phytosanitary thresholds. In this paper, we outline a framework to optimize thresholds for seedborne pathogens, balancing the cost of rejected seed lots and benefit of reduced inoculum levels. The method requires relatively small amounts of data, and the accuracy and robustness of the analysis improves over time as data accumulate from seed testing. We demonstrate the method first and illustrate it with a case study of seedborne oospores of Peronospora effusa, the causal agent of spinach downy mildew. A seed lot threshold of 0.23 oospores per seed could reduce the overall number of oospores entering the production system by 90% while removing 8% of seed lots destined for distribution. Alternative mitigation strategies may result in lower economic losses to seed producers, but have uncertain efficacy. We discuss future challenges and prospects for implementing this approach.

scholarly journals From rapid visual survey to multi-hazard risk prioritisation and numerical fragility of school buildings

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1365-1386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Gentile ◽  
Carmine Galasso ◽  
Yunita Idris ◽  
Ibnu Rusydy ◽  
Ella Meilianda
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
School Buildings ◽  
Mechanism Analysis ◽  
Survey Form ◽  
Visual Survey ◽  
Non Linear

Abstract. Regional seismic risk assessment is paramount in earthquake-prone areas, for instance, to define and implement prioritisation schemes for earthquake risk reduction. As part of the Indonesia School Programme to Increase Resilience (INSPIRE), this paper proposes an ad hoc rapid-visual-survey form, allowing one to (1) calculate the newly proposed INSPIRE seismic risk prioritisation index, which is an empirical proxy for the relative seismic risk of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings within a given building portfolio; (2) calculate the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) index, in any of its variations; (3) define one or more archetype buildings representative of the analysed portfolio; (4) derive detailed numerical models of the archetype buildings, provided that the simulated design is used to cross-check the model assumptions. The proposed INSPIRE index combines a baseline score, calibrated based on fragility curves, and a performance modifier, calibrated through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to minimise subjectivity. An attempt to define a multi-hazard prioritisation scheme is proposed, combining the INSPIRE and PTVA indices. Such a multi-level framework is implemented for 85 RC school buildings in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, the most affected city by the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake–tsunami sequence. As part of the proposed framework, two archetype buildings representative of the entire portfolio are defined based on the collected data. Their seismic performance is analysed by means of non-linear static analyses, using both the analytical simple lateral mechanism analysis (SLaMA) method and numerical finite-element pushover analyses to investigate the expected plastic mechanisms and derive displacement/drift thresholds to define appropriate damage states. Finally, non-linear dynamic analyses are performed to derive fragility curves for the archetype buildings. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the INSPIRE data collection form and proposed index in providing a rational method to derive seismic risk prioritisation schemes and in allowing the definition of archetype buildings for more detailed evaluations/analyses.

Typological Seismic Risk Maps for Italy

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 907-926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Rota ◽  
Andrea Penna ◽  
Claudio Strobbia ◽  
Guido Magenes
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Reliable Data ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Risk Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Hazard Vulnerability ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
Italian Territory

This paper describes the methodology followed to derive typological seismic risk maps for Italy and then presents the results. In its classical definition, seismic risk is obtained from the convolution of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Due to the absence of reliable data on exposure for the entire Italian territory, this study proposes typological seismic risk maps, obtained by simply convolving hazard and vulnerability for several building typologies characteristic of the Italian building stock. A specific hazard study in terms of PGA has been carried out. The results have then been convolved with empirical typological fragility curves, that were derived from data collected during post-earthquake surveys after the main Italian events of the last 30 years. Useful applications can be found for the typological seismic risk maps, both for risk mitigation strategies and for purely economical evaluations (e.g., insurance and reinsurance studies).

scholarly journals From rapid visual survey to multi-hazard risk prioritisation and numerical fragility of school buildings in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Gentile ◽  
Carmine Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
School Buildings ◽  
Mechanism Analysis ◽  
Visual Survey ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Banda Aceh

Abstract. Regional seismic risk assessment is paramount in earthquake-prone areas, for instance to define and implement prioritisation schemes for earthquake risk mitigation. As part of the INdonesia School Programme to Increase Resilience (INSPIRE), this paper introduces the INSPIRE index, which is an empirical proxy for the relative seismic risk of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings within a given building portfolio. The index combines a baseline score, calibrated based on the fragility curves in HAZUS MH4, and a performance modifier, calibrated through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to minimise subjectivity. An ad-hoc rapid visual survey form is proposed, which allows to (1) calculate the proposed INSPIRE seismic risk prioritisation index; (2) calculate the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) index; (3) define one or more archetype buildings representative of the analysed portfolio; (4) derive detailed numerical models of the archetype building, provided that simulated design is used to cross-check the model assumptions. Such framework is demonstrated for 85 RC school buildings in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, the mostly affected city by the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake-tsunami sequence. A multi-hazard prioritisation scheme is defined combining the INSPIRE and PTVA indices. Moreover, an archetype building representative of the entire portfolio is defined based on the collected data. Its seismic performance is analysed by means of non-linear static analyses, using both the analytical Simple Lateral Mechanism Analysis (SLaMA) method and numerical finite element pushover analyses to investigate the predicted plastic mechanisms and derive displacement/drift thresholds to define appropriate damage states. Finally, non-linear dynamic analyses using 150 unscaled natural ground motions (cloud analysis) are adopted to derive fragility curves for the archetype building. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the INSPIRE data collection form and proposed index in providing a rational method to derive prioritisation schemes and in allowing the definition of archetype buildings for more detailed evaluations/analyses.

Shake Table Testing of Lightweight Steel Drywall Nonstructural Components

2018 ◽  
Vol 763 ◽  
pp. 423-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Bucciero ◽  
Tatiana Pali ◽  
Maria Teresa Terracciano ◽  
Vincenzo Macillo ◽  
Luigi Fiorino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Response ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Shake Table ◽  
Structural Components ◽  
Seismic Behaviour ◽  
Nonstructural Components ◽  
Lightweight Steel ◽  
Partition Walls

Damages of non-structural components during a seismic event can involve risks for the human life, interruption of ordinary activities and significant economic losses. Therefore, the understanding of the seismic behaviour of non-structural components is a fundamental prerequisite for their use. In this context, a cooperation between the University of Naples "Federico II" and KnaufGips KG Company, aimed to the knowledge of seismic response of lightweight steel drywall non-structural components was carried forward. In this framework, shake table tests were carried out on protoypes composed by indoor partition walls, outdoor façade walls and suspended continuous ceilings. The influence on seismic response of basic and enhanced anti-seismic solutions, corresponding to the use of fixed or sliding connections at the walls and ceilings perimeter, was investigated. The seismic response in terms of damage occurrence was also evaluated by fragility curves, which show that enhanced solutions have a better seismic response than basic solutions and indoor partition walls have a higher seismic “fragility” than outdoor façade walls.

scholarly journals Effects of ground-motion sequences on fragility and vulnerability of case-study reinforced concrete frames

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karim Aljawhari ◽  
Roberto Gentile ◽  
Fabio Freddi ◽  
Carmine Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Performance ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Time History ◽  
Eurocode 8 ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
First Case

AbstractThis study investigates the effects of ground-motion sequences on fragility and vulnerability of reinforced concrete (RC) moment-resisting frames (MRFs). Two four-storey, four-bay RC MRFs are selected as case studies. These structures, which share the same geometry, are representative of distinct vulnerability classes in the Mediterranean region and are characterized by different material properties, cross-section dimensions, and detailing. The first case study is a ductile MRF designed according to Eurocode 8 (i.e., a special-code frame), while the second is a non-ductile MRF designed to sustain only gravity loads (i.e., a pre-code frame). The influence of masonry infills on their seismic performance is also investigated. Advanced numerical models are developed to perform cloud-based sequential nonlinear time history analyses using ground-motion sequences assembled by randomly pairing two real records via Latin hypercube sampling. Different structure-specific damage states are considered to derive fragility curves for the undamaged structures, when subjected to a single ground-motion record, and state-dependent fragility curves by considering the additional damage induced by a second ground-motion record within the sequence. Damage-to-loss models are then used to derive mean vulnerability relationships. Results of the analysis show the importance of considering the effect of damage accumulation in the pre-code frames. Moreover, the presence of infills shows an overall positive contribution to the seismic performance of both frame types. Vector-valued vulnerability relationships accounting for the damaging effect of two ground-motion records are finally presented in the form of mean vulnerability surfaces.

scholarly journals Urban Seismic Risk Analysis Using Empirical Fragility Curves for Kerend-e-Gharb After Mw 7.3, 2017 Iran Earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahnoosh Biglari ◽  
Antonio Formisano
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Damage Index ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Hospital Treatment ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Severe Injuries ◽  
The Mean

Abstract This study provides the seismic risk map of the small mountain city of Kerend-e-gharb. This innovative study evaluates the existing methods and formulations with the effects of a devastating earthquake using empirical fragility curves. A seismic vulnerability map is developed at the urban block-scale at a Geographic Information System for a variety of steel, reinforced concrete, confined masonry, unreinforced masonry, and adobe residential buildings. The estimated seismic damages are validated by comparing them with the surveyed building damages in the Sarpol-e-zahab earthquake. Moreover, the damages to the population, including the probability of homelessness, death, severe injuries that need immediate hospital treatment, moderate injuries that require hospital treatment, and light injuries without hospitalization, are assessed. This research also investigated the economic losses and estimation of debris. Finally, the mean damage index map is presented. The mean damage index map is modified due to renovation and retrofitting at higher damage levels, and it is increased at moderate damage levels that have not been structurally improved. The results of this study can be used in seismic crisis management planning in natural hazards to achieve a sustainable city.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL FOR SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST INDIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangjukta Das ◽  
Tapati Parashar ◽  
Yudhajit Dey
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Northeast India ◽  
Soil Liquefaction ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Liquefaction Potential ◽  
Simplified Approach ◽  
The Impact

The study of liquefaction potential of a region is of utmost importance regarding the safety of both life and property. Soil Liquefaction occurs when is there is loss of strength and stiffness in saturated and cohesion less soil due to increase in pore water pressure. The strength of the soil is sometimes reduced by earthquake shaking or rapid loading. Liquefaction causes soil failures which leads to severe damages to structures supported on such grounds leading to significant economic losses. The main purpose of the present study is to analyse liquefaction of some selected sites of Northeast India which falls in the zone of highest seismic risk zone level(Zone V in India)using bore log data of 95boreholes upto a depth of 15m. The liquefaction analysis is carried out with the help of 2 different methods and results are compared. Factor of safety versus depth curves plotted for showing the change in soil liquefaction with increasing depth. The methods used for analysis are simplified approach by Seed and Idriss (1971) and IS code procedure for evaluation of liquefaction potential (2016). More detailed study can be done in future and also various mitigation strategies can be put forward to reduce the impact of hazard.

scholarly journals EXPERIMENTAL FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PARTS OF BEAS BASIN USING INTEGRATION OF WEATHER FORECASTING, HYDROLOGICAL AND HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 221-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. Dhote ◽  
P. K. Thakur ◽  
S. P. Aggarwal ◽  
V. C. Sharma ◽  
V. Garg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Simulation Accuracy ◽  
Rainfall Forecast ◽  
Outer Domain ◽  
Basin Scale

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The flood early warning for any country is very important due to possible saving of human life, minimizing economic losses and devising mitigation strategies. The present work highlights the experimental flood early warning study in parts of Beas Basin, India for the monsoon season of 2015. The entire flood early warning was done in three parts. In first part, rainfall forecast for every three days in double nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) domain (9<span class="thinspace"></span>km for outer domain and 3<span class="thinspace"></span>km for inner domain) was done for North Western Himalaya NWH using National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) 0.25 degree data as initialization state. Rainfall forecast was validated using Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data, the simulation accuracy of WRF in rainfall prediction above 100<span class="thinspace"></span>mm is about 60%. Rainfall induced flood event of August 05&amp;ndash;08, 2015 in Sone River (tributary of Beas River) Basin, near Dharampur, Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh caused very high damages. This event was picked three days in advance by WRF model based rainfall forecast. In second part, mean rainfall at sub-basin scale for hydrological model (HEC-HMS) was estimated from forecasted rainfall at every three hours in netcdf format using python script and flood hydrographs were generated. In third part, flood inundation map was generated using Hydrodynamic (HD) model (MIKE 11) with flood hydrographs as boundary condition to see the probable areas of inundation.</p>

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