Consider the general population growth model in a random environment dN/dt= (r+σε(t))Nf(N), N(0)=N0>0, where N=N(t) is the (animal, cell, etc.) population size or biomass at time t≥0, r>0 is an intrinsic growth parameter subjected to environmental random fluctuations approximately described by σε(t) (σ>0 noise intensity parameter, ε(t) standard white noise), and f(N) is a well-behaved density-dependence function. Due to demographic stochasticity and Allee effects, a slightly modified model that corrects for inadequacies at small population sizes is also considered. In many applications (wildlife management, environmental impact assessment, pest control, growth of bacterial cultures, tumor or body growth, etc.), one needs the probability of N(t) ever crossing a given threshold during a given time horizon. We consider the cases of a low threshold N1<N0 (for instance, an extinction threshold or a minimum size required for economical, ecological or recreational reasons) and of a high threshold N h >N0 (for instance, a pest’s damaging level). We also obtain other related threshold crossing probabilities of interest. A reference is made to statistical estimation and hypothesis testing.
Archaeology, demography and life history theory together can help us explain past and present population patterns
