The Kinship Matrix: Inferring the Kinship Structure of a Population From Its Demography

The familial structure of a population and the relatedness of its individuals are determined by its demography. There is, however, no general method to infer kinship directly from the life-cycle of a structured population. Yet this question is central to fields such as ecology, evolution and conservation, especially in contexts where there is a strong interdependence between familial structure and population dynamics. Here, we give a general formula to compute, from any matrix population model, the expected number of arbitrary kin (sisters, nieces, cousins, etc) of a focal individual ego, structured by the class of ego and of its kin. Central to our approach are classic but little-used tools known as genealogical matrices, which we combine in a new way. Our method can be used to obtain both individual-based and population-wide metrics of kinship, as we illustrate. It also makes it possible to analyze the sensitivity of the kinship structure to the traits implemented in the model.

Demography of Attalea nucifera: Sustainable management and conservation of a threatened species of Colombia

Attalea nucifera is an acaulescent palm native of Colombia that is in risk of extinction. Between 2016-2017 we evaluated the structure and density of populations in six localities of the Magdalena river valley, and studied the population dynamic in the locality of Guaduas, Cundinamarca (VC). Although the population structure differs among locations (X2 = 1819, gl = 25, P < 0.05), populations tend to group according to the degree of habitat perturbation. In four localities an inverted J population structure was observed. A matrix population model showed a finite growth rate (λ) of 0.979 (CI95 % = 0.962–0.997). The demographic processes of the permanence of seedlings, sub-adults and young adults show more elasticity. A transient dynamic simulation projected to 30 years shows that under the scenarios of paddock and cattle lopping the population size decrease drastically. The extinction threshold calculated for the population in the locality VC is of 145 years, but paddock and cattle lopping activities can reduce it to less than 40 years. Although Attalea nucifera persists in very disturbing locations in the Middle Magdalena Basin, the results of population dynamics in the locality VC suggest that it could be less tolerant of environmental disturbances. Thus, it is necessary to increase our knowledge of its population dynamics, as well as seed germination and seedling establishment in different disturbance conditions.

Evolution of simple multicellular life cycles in dynamic environments

The mode of reproduction is a critical characteristic of any species, as it has a strong effect on its evolution. As any other trait, the reproduction mode is subject to natural selection and may adapt to the environment. When the environment varies over time, different reproduction modes could be optimal at different times. The natural response to a dynamic environment seems to be bet hedging, where multiple reproductive strategies are stochastically executed. Here, we develop a framework for the evolution of simple multicellular life cycles in a dynamic environment. We use a matrix population model of undifferentiated multicellular groups undergoing fragmentation and ask which mode maximizes the population growth rate. Counterintuitively, we find that natural selection in dynamic environments generally tends to promote deterministic, not stochastic, reproduction modes.

Evolution of simple multicellular life cycles in dynamic environments

The mode of reproduction is a critical characteristic of any species, as it has a strong effect on its evolution. As any other trait, the reproduction mode is subject to natural selection and may adapt to the environment. When the environment varies over time, different reproduction modes could be optimal at different times. The natural response to a dynamic environment seems to be bet hedging, where multiple reproductive strategies are stochastically executed. Here, we develop a framework for the evolution of simple multicellular life cycles in a dynamic environment. We use a matrix population model of undifferentiated multicellular groups undergoing fragmentation and ask which mode maximizes the population growth rate. Counterintuitively, we find that natural selection in dynamic environments generally tends to promote deterministic, not stochastic, reproduction modes.