Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

2007 ◽  
pp. 577-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tadashi Annaka ◽  
Kenji Satake ◽  
Tsutomu Sakakiyama ◽  
Ken Yanagisawa ◽  
Nobuo Shuto
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tree Approach

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

2007 ◽  
Vol 164 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 577-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tadashi Annaka ◽  
Kenji Satake ◽  
Tsutomu Sakakiyama ◽  
Ken Yanagisawa ◽  
Nobuo Shuto
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tree Approach

Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiaki Sakai ◽  
Tomoyoshi Takeda ◽  
Hiroshi Soraoka ◽  
Ken Yanagisawa ◽  
Tadashi Annaka
Keyword(s):  
System Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Height ◽  
Design Basis ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Hazard Curves ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tree Approach

It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present an example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Inundated Buildings Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Kwanchai Pakoksung ◽  
Anawat Suppasri ◽  
Fumihiko Imamura
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Active Volcano ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Initial Water ◽  
Volcanic Explosion ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Tsunami Mitigation ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tunami N2

A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion was performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano at Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would potentially generate tsunamis in the lake. This study aimed to analyze a probabilistic tsunami hazard of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To determine the probabilistic tsunami hazard, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The tsunami hazard analysis of inundated buildings was performed by using the maximum inundation depth in each explosion case. These products were used to calculate the probability of the inundated building given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation if a tsunami is generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the logic tree approach – Patna district (India)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 2097-2115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panjamani Anbazhagan ◽  
Ketan Bajaj ◽  
Karanpreet Matharu ◽  
Sayed S. R. Moustafa ◽  
Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Incremental Method ◽  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
Hazard Response ◽  
Tree Approach

Abstract. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and study area (SA) distribution for the Patna district are presented considering both the classical and zoneless approaches through a logic tree framework to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude is calculated using three methods, namely the incremental method, Kijko method, and regional rupture characteristics approach. The best suitable ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are selected by carrying out an “efficacy test” using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 to 0.30 g from the southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörn Behrens ◽  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Fatemeh Jalayer ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Research Gaps ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis For Tuzla Test Site Using Monte Carlo Simulations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Basak Bayraktar ◽  
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
M Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Abstract. In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault within next 50 and 100 years. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue which includes earthquakes having magnitudes between Mw 6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of entire fault rupture which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modelling. Tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters are represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in Tuzla region for next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, Probabilistic inundations maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps and the maximum inundation distance calculated among entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, at synthetic gauge points which are selected along the western coast of the Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the area that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using logic tree approach – Patna District (India)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panjamani Anbazhagan ◽  
Ketan Bajaj ◽  
Karanpreet Matharu ◽  
Sayed S. R. Moustafa ◽  
Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Incremental Method ◽  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
Hazard Response ◽  
Frame Work ◽  
Tree Approach

Abstract. PGA and SA distribution for Patna district is presented considering both classical and zoneless approach through logic tree frame work to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude was calculated using three methods namely incremental method, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics approach. Best suitable GMPE was selected by carrying out efficacy test using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 g to 0.30 g from southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years.

scholarly journals Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy)

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita Grezio ◽  
Francesca Romana Cinti ◽  
Antonio Costa ◽  
Licia Faenza ◽  
Paolo Perfetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Gulf Of Naples ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for Tuzla test site using Monte Carlo simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1741-1764
Author(s):  
Hafize Basak Bayraktar ◽  
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
M Wave ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Abstract. In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul, in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault (PIF) within the next 50 and 100 years. The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue, which includes earthquakes having moment magnitudes between Mw6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of an entire fault rupture, which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modeling. The tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters is represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for the next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in the Tuzla region for the next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, probabilistic inundation maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps, and the maximum inundation distance calculated in the entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, synthetic gauge points are selected along the western coast of Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the areas that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years.

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