Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Inundated Buildings Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines

A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion was performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano at Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would potentially generate tsunamis in the lake. This study aimed to analyze a probabilistic tsunami hazard of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To determine the probabilistic tsunami hazard, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The tsunami hazard analysis of inundated buildings was performed by using the maximum inundation depth in each explosion case. These products were used to calculate the probability of the inundated building given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation if a tsunami is generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model of Building Inundation Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines

A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion is performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano in Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would have a strong impact on humans around the coastal area of the lake. This study aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami hazard model of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To develop the probabilistic tsunami hazard model, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy as a function of the explosion diameter. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The statistical distribution of inundated buildings can be modeled with the lognormal distribution, which exhibits the best fit among nine candidate statistical distributions. The tsunami hazard analysis is explained by using the conditional hazard curve and map. These products were used to calculate the probability of building inundation given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation in the case of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.

Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data

Small steam-driven volcanic explosions are common at volcanoes worldwide but are rarely documented or monitored; therefore, these events still put residents and tourists at risk every year. Steam-driven explosions also occur frequently (once every 2–5 years on average) at Lascar volcano, Chile, where they are often spontaneous and lack any identifiable precursor activity. Here, for the first time at Lascar, we describe the processes culminating in such a sudden volcanic explosion that occurred on 30 October 2015, which was thoroughly monitored by cameras, a seismic network, and gas and temperature sensors. Prior to the eruption, we retrospectively identified unrest manifesting as a gradual increase in the number of long-period (LP) seismic events in 2014, indicating an enhanced level of activity at the volcano. Additionally, sulfur dioxide (SO2) flux and thermal anomalies were detected before the eruption. Then, our weather station reported a precipitation event, followed by an increase in steaming and a sudden volcanic explosion at Lascar. The multidisciplinary data exhibited short-term variations associated with the explosion, including (1) an abrupt eruption onset that was seismically identified in the 1–10 Hz frequency band, (2) the detection of a 1.7 km high white-gray eruption column in camera images, and (3) a pronounced spike in SO2 emission rates reaching 55 kg s−1 during the main pulse of the eruption as measured by a mini-differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) scanner. Continuous carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature measurements conducted at a fumarole on the southern rim of the Lascar crater revealed a pronounced change in the trend of the relationship between the CO2 mixing ratio and the gas outlet temperature; we speculate that this change was associated with the prior precipitation event. An increased thermal anomaly inside the active crater as observed in Sentinel-2 images and drone overflights performed after the steam-driven explosion revealed the presence of a ∼50 m long fracture truncating the floor of the active crater, which coincides well with the location of the thermal anomaly. This study presents the chronology of events culminating in a steam-driven explosion but also demonstrates that phreatic explosions are difficult to predict, even if the volcano is thoroughly monitored; these findings emphasize why ascending to the summits of Lascar and similar volcanoes is hazardous, particularly after considerable precipitation.

Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, monitored by multiparametric data

Small steam-driven volcanic explosions are common at volcanoes worldwide but are rarely documented or monitored; therefore, these events still put residents and tourists at risk every year. Steam-driven explosions also occur frequently (once every 2–5 years on average) at Lascar volcano, Chile, where they are often spontaneous and lack any identifiable precursor activity. Here, for the first time at Lascar, we describe the processes culminating in such a sudden volcanic explosion that occurred on October 30, 2015, which was thoroughly monitored by cameras, a seismic network, and gas (SO2 and CO2) and temperature sensors. Prior to the eruption, we retrospectively identified unrest manifesting as a gradual increase in the number of long-period (LP) seismic events in 2014, indicating an augmented level of activity at the volcano. Additionally, SO2 flux and thermal anomalies were detected before the eruption. Then, our weather station reported a precipitation event, followed by changes in the brightness of the permanent volcanic plume and (10 days later) by the sudden volcanic explosion. The multidisciplinary data exhibited short-term variations associated with the explosion, including (1) an abrupt eruption onset that was seismically identified in the 1–10 Hz frequency band, (2) the detection of a 1.7 km high white-grey eruption column in camera images, and (3) a pronounced spike in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates reaching 55 kg sec−1 during the main pulse of the eruption as measured by a mini-DOAS scanner. Continuous CO2 gas and temperature measurements conducted at a fumarole on the southern rim of the Lascar crater revealed a pronounced change in the trend of the relationship between the carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratio and the gas outlet temperature; we believe that this change was associated with the prior precipitation event. An increased thermal anomaly inside the active crater observed through Sentinel-2 images and drone overflights performed after the steam-driven explosion revealed the presence of a fracture ~ 50 metres in diameter truncating the dome and located deep inside the active crater, which coincides well with the location of the thermal anomaly. Altogether, these observations lead us to infer that a lava dome was present and subjected to cooling and inhibited degassing. We conjecture that a precipitation event led to the short-term build-up of pressure inside the shallow dome that eventually triggered a vent-clearing phreatic explosion. This study shows the chronology of events culminating in a steam-driven explosion but also demonstrates that phreatic explosions are difficult to forecast, even if the volcano is thoroughly monitored; these findings also emphasize why ascending to the summits of Lascar and similar volcanoes is hazardous, particularly after considerable rainfall.