Humanitarian and Developmental Research Engagement during COVID-19

Background: Floods and storms are the most common natural hazards. Communities in remote, riparian areas are the most vulnerable in such disasters, particularly when local populations lack reliable energy and early warning systems for hazard response. Our study will investigate energy and flood resilience issues in such communities and use remote methods to enable research continuity in intra and post-pandemic contexts. Methods/Design: A two-round Delphi process will be used to interview 16 participants from Nepal and Greece to understand their priorities and preferred solutions for energy and flood resilience issues. In Round One we aim to understand the current capabilities and vulnerabilities of our focus communities in these areas. In Round Two, we seek feedback on potential options that are either market-available/evidence-informed solutions or co-developed conceptual systems. Remotely deployed semi-structured interviews are the principal method for both rounds. The Round Two structured comparative review also employs choice-based conjoint analysis and SCORE analysis. Discussion: By collecting information from both professionals and non-experts, we aim to understand what options are perceived as reliable, realistic and appropriate for flood-prone communities. The remote research design enables continuity and community access to development-focused research and its outputs, and a flexible, cost-effective approach for researchers and partner organizations.

A Geographical Analysis of the Hazardscape of the Wellington Region: Influences on Intra-Regional Response

<p>This thesis defines and explores the hazardscape of the Wellington Region and investigates its influences on variations in the hazard response from local people and administration throughout the region. The research first identifies and argues for a holistic conceptual framework such as 'hazardscape' to study multiple hazards and associated issues at a place. Although the need for a holistic approach has been recognised in the literature, conventional research has generally been compartmentalized into the individual study of hazards, issues and response. Despite the fact that geography has a tradition of using an ecological approach to study natural hazards, the holistic approach has been compromised for various reasons. Behavioural, perception, vulnerability and resilience models, although covering significant aspects of hazards, present only a partial reality. A skewed focus on humans, although a popular emphasis, also detracts from the ability of hazard geography to attain a truly holistic view. Even though it has been recognized that natural hazards result through interaction of human and natural systems, the separation of the two fails to explain many complexities that result through ecosystem functioning. Studies of hazards and disasters are predominantly focused on single hazard assessment of an area, and there is a gap in the literature that deals with multiple hazards and associated issues. With the background of these shortcomings, this thesis explores the concept of 'hazardscape' for a more holistic framework to study various aspects of hazards at a place. The thesis broadly contains three parts. In the first part, it gives the conceptual framework to study the hazardscape. It defines 'hazardscape' as a dynamic scape, which reflects the physical susceptibility of a place and vulnerability of human life and assets to various hazards in a given human ecological system. The research uses the term 'hazardscape' for its geographical connotation, its ability to express the ecological perspective behind hazard creation and its merits over the other related term 'riskscape'. The study also argues the significance of hazardscape in the shifting paradigm of both subject matter and method of evaluation i.e. from descriptive account of individual factors to a holistic analysis. The second part of the thesis examines the hazardscape of the Wellington Region, by assessing its physical susceptibility, human vulnerability and spatio-temporal occurrence of hazards in the region. This investigation is primarily based on the secondary data, and attempts to provide an overall picture of the local hazardscape. It highlights a few distinctive characteristics of the hazardscape of the Wellington Region including its excessive physical susceptibility to a wide range of hazards along with varied human vulnerability and the history of extreme events in the region. The nature and amount of impact from past events differ over space, and is heavily skewed towards the urban areas in the western section of the region. The third section of the thesis assesses the influences of hazardscape on hazard response of local people and administration. The hypothesis used to guide the study is "whereas integrated regional planning is likely to produce a uniform response to hazard, hazardscape introduces variations in the local response throughout the region". It was formulated because the establishment of a Regional Policy Statement and a Regional Civil Defence and Emergency Management Plan could be expected to lead to uniform responses throughout the region. However, the expectation was that aspects of the hazardscape would continue to influence response, despite the existence of the over-arching plan. The analysis is based on both primary and secondary data, and involves both quantitative and qualitative data and methods to present the findings. The primary data is based on the interview schedules and structured questionnaires conducted with local people and administration throughout the region. The sample was selected through a stratified purposive sampling method based on the location of respondents with respect to their hazard exposure. This method, while providing an unsuitable platform for rigorous statistical testing, has been designed to capture the extreme range of conditions and responses. It is also able to reveal trends and indicative relationships that can be matched with expectations and theory. The research finds that various characteristics of the hazardscape including hazards, physical susceptibility and vulnerability have influenced and produced variations in the hazard response over space. It argues that a detailed analysis of a hazardscape can contribute to effective hazard management along with human response to hazards. The thesis therefore has both theoretical significance and a practical validity.</p>

A Geographical Analysis of the Hazardscape of the Wellington Region: Influences on Intra-Regional Response

<p>This thesis defines and explores the hazardscape of the Wellington Region and investigates its influences on variations in the hazard response from local people and administration throughout the region. The research first identifies and argues for a holistic conceptual framework such as 'hazardscape' to study multiple hazards and associated issues at a place. Although the need for a holistic approach has been recognised in the literature, conventional research has generally been compartmentalized into the individual study of hazards, issues and response. Despite the fact that geography has a tradition of using an ecological approach to study natural hazards, the holistic approach has been compromised for various reasons. Behavioural, perception, vulnerability and resilience models, although covering significant aspects of hazards, present only a partial reality. A skewed focus on humans, although a popular emphasis, also detracts from the ability of hazard geography to attain a truly holistic view. Even though it has been recognized that natural hazards result through interaction of human and natural systems, the separation of the two fails to explain many complexities that result through ecosystem functioning. Studies of hazards and disasters are predominantly focused on single hazard assessment of an area, and there is a gap in the literature that deals with multiple hazards and associated issues. With the background of these shortcomings, this thesis explores the concept of 'hazardscape' for a more holistic framework to study various aspects of hazards at a place. The thesis broadly contains three parts. In the first part, it gives the conceptual framework to study the hazardscape. It defines 'hazardscape' as a dynamic scape, which reflects the physical susceptibility of a place and vulnerability of human life and assets to various hazards in a given human ecological system. The research uses the term 'hazardscape' for its geographical connotation, its ability to express the ecological perspective behind hazard creation and its merits over the other related term 'riskscape'. The study also argues the significance of hazardscape in the shifting paradigm of both subject matter and method of evaluation i.e. from descriptive account of individual factors to a holistic analysis. The second part of the thesis examines the hazardscape of the Wellington Region, by assessing its physical susceptibility, human vulnerability and spatio-temporal occurrence of hazards in the region. This investigation is primarily based on the secondary data, and attempts to provide an overall picture of the local hazardscape. It highlights a few distinctive characteristics of the hazardscape of the Wellington Region including its excessive physical susceptibility to a wide range of hazards along with varied human vulnerability and the history of extreme events in the region. The nature and amount of impact from past events differ over space, and is heavily skewed towards the urban areas in the western section of the region. The third section of the thesis assesses the influences of hazardscape on hazard response of local people and administration. The hypothesis used to guide the study is "whereas integrated regional planning is likely to produce a uniform response to hazard, hazardscape introduces variations in the local response throughout the region". It was formulated because the establishment of a Regional Policy Statement and a Regional Civil Defence and Emergency Management Plan could be expected to lead to uniform responses throughout the region. However, the expectation was that aspects of the hazardscape would continue to influence response, despite the existence of the over-arching plan. The analysis is based on both primary and secondary data, and involves both quantitative and qualitative data and methods to present the findings. The primary data is based on the interview schedules and structured questionnaires conducted with local people and administration throughout the region. The sample was selected through a stratified purposive sampling method based on the location of respondents with respect to their hazard exposure. This method, while providing an unsuitable platform for rigorous statistical testing, has been designed to capture the extreme range of conditions and responses. It is also able to reveal trends and indicative relationships that can be matched with expectations and theory. The research finds that various characteristics of the hazardscape including hazards, physical susceptibility and vulnerability have influenced and produced variations in the hazard response over space. It argues that a detailed analysis of a hazardscape can contribute to effective hazard management along with human response to hazards. The thesis therefore has both theoretical significance and a practical validity.</p>

Eliciting mental models to understand how different individuals affected by disaster risk understand science, and scientific uncertainty

&lt;p&gt;Communicating the uncertainty associated with forecasts is crucial to effective crisis response management, but it is particularly challenging when time frames are too short to articulate the complexities of the information. However, not communicating uncertainties is problematic. For technical experts, interdependencies amongst event characteristics over time creates evolving uncertainties that may eclipse those associated with modelled outcomes. For the public and emergency decision-makers, the lack of uncertainty awareness may result in future alternative courses of action not being identified and assessed, reducing the efficacy of decisions and action plans. Furthermore, revealing uncertainty can both increase or decrease the credibility and trustworthiness of the communicator.&amp;#160; Some individuals will devalue a message when uncertainty is communicated, while others may devalue the message when they expect uncertainty and it has &lt;em&gt;not&lt;/em&gt; been communicated. If we are to develop effective ways to communicate uncertainty in a crisis, research needs to understand the reasons for these differences.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Key influences include how perceptions of science, its uncertainty, and the scientific process, act as a lens through which scientific information is interpreted. This lens can warp communicated information, particularly when uncertainty is high: during a crisis, people may not take appropriate safety actions based upon scientific advice if the message contradicts or fails to accommodate, their existing perceptions of the science. Forecasts, warnings, and other communication products must address these existing perceptions if they are to be effective. These perceptions are represented in people&amp;#8217;s mental models of how they think the world works, including their model of scientific processes, motivations, beliefs, and values, which vary across disciplines and organizations due to epistemic differences. We will report on the initial findings from a study that&amp;#160; a) identifies the appropriate methodology to elicit mental models of science in the public and professional populations, and b) uses this to explore how mental models of scientific uncertainty are held by the public, emergency managers, scientists, engineers, and key decision-makers involved in hazard response. Our aim is to identify the shared concepts underlying these mental models, so forecast messaging can be effectively crafted to include uncertainty in a way that aligns with&amp;#160; individuals&amp;#8217; mental models. Through this we offer strategies to enhance individual decision-making under uncertainty in ways that develop the trust that the public and decision-makers have in forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;