scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Inundated Buildings Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Kwanchai Pakoksung ◽  
Anawat Suppasri ◽  
Fumihiko Imamura
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Active Volcano ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Initial Water ◽  
Volcanic Explosion ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Tsunami Mitigation ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tunami N2

A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion was performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano at Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would potentially generate tsunamis in the lake. This study aimed to analyze a probabilistic tsunami hazard of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To determine the probabilistic tsunami hazard, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The tsunami hazard analysis of inundated buildings was performed by using the maximum inundation depth in each explosion case. These products were used to calculate the probability of the inundated building given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation if a tsunami is generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model of Building Inundation Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwanchai Pakoksung ◽  
Anawat Suppasri ◽  
Fumihiko Imamura
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Active Volcano ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Initial Water ◽  
Volcanic Explosion ◽  
Tsunami Mitigation ◽  
Tunami N2

Abstract A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion is performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano in Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would have a strong impact on humans around the coastal area of the lake. This study aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami hazard model of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To develop the probabilistic tsunami hazard model, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy as a function of the explosion diameter. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The statistical distribution of inundated buildings can be modeled with the lognormal distribution, which exhibits the best fit among nine candidate statistical distributions. The tsunami hazard analysis is explained by using the conditional hazard curve and map. These products were used to calculate the probability of building inundation given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation in the case of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

2007 ◽  
Vol 164 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 577-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tadashi Annaka ◽  
Kenji Satake ◽  
Tsutomu Sakakiyama ◽  
Ken Yanagisawa ◽  
Nobuo Shuto
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tree Approach

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörn Behrens ◽  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Fatemeh Jalayer ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Research Gaps ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis For Tuzla Test Site Using Monte Carlo Simulations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Basak Bayraktar ◽  
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
M Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Abstract. In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault within next 50 and 100 years. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue which includes earthquakes having magnitudes between Mw 6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of entire fault rupture which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modelling. Tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters are represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in Tuzla region for next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, Probabilistic inundations maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps and the maximum inundation distance calculated among entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, at synthetic gauge points which are selected along the western coast of the Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the area that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years.

scholarly journals Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy)

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita Grezio ◽  
Francesca Romana Cinti ◽  
Antonio Costa ◽  
Licia Faenza ◽  
Paolo Perfetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Gulf Of Naples ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for Tuzla test site using Monte Carlo simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1741-1764
Author(s):  
Hafize Basak Bayraktar ◽  
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
M Wave ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Abstract. In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul, in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault (PIF) within the next 50 and 100 years. The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue, which includes earthquakes having moment magnitudes between Mw6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of an entire fault rupture, which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modeling. The tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters is represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for the next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in the Tuzla region for the next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, probabilistic inundation maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps, and the maximum inundation distance calculated in the entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, synthetic gauge points are selected along the western coast of Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the areas that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: High Performance Computing for Massive Scale Inundation Simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J. Gibbons ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Jorge Macías ◽  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Jacopo Selva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Performance Computing ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Inundation Modelling ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Performance Computing

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) quantifies the probability of exceeding a specified inundation intensity at a given location within a given time interval. PTHA provides scientific guidance for tsunami risk analysis and risk management, including coastal planning and early warning. Explicit computation of site-specific PTHA, with an adequate discretization of source scenarios combined with high-resolution numerical inundation modelling, has been out of reach with existing models and computing capabilities, with tens to hundreds of thousands of moderately intensive numerical simulations being required for exhaustive uncertainty quantification. In recent years, more efficient GPU-based High-Performance Computing (HPC) facilities, together with efficient GPU-optimized shallow water type models for simulating tsunami inundation, have now made local long-term hazard assessment feasible. A workflow has been developed with three main stages: 1) Site-specific source selection and discretization, 2) Efficient numerical inundation simulation for each scenario using the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA numerical tsunami propagation and inundation model using a system of nested topo-bathymetric grids, and 3) Hazard aggregation. We apply this site-specific PTHA workflow here to Catania, Sicily, for tsunamigenic earthquake sources in the Mediterranean. We illustrate the workflows of the PTHA as implemented for High-Performance Computing applications, including preliminary simulations carried out on intermediate scale GPU clusters. We show how the local hazard analysis conducted here produces a more fine-grained assessment than is possible with a regional assessment. However, the new local PTHA indicates somewhat lower probabilities of exceedance for higher maximum inundation heights than the available regional PTHA. The local hazard analysis takes into account small-scale tsunami inundation features and non-linearity which the regional-scale assessment does not incorporate. However, the deterministic inundation simulations neglect some uncertainties stemming from the simplified source treatment and tsunami modelling that are embedded in the regional stochastic approach to inundation height estimation. Further research is needed to quantify the uncertainty associated with numerical inundation modelling and to properly propagate it onto the hazard results, to fully exploit the potential of site-specific hazard assessment based on massive simulations.

scholarly journals On the landslide tsunami uncertainty and hazard

Landslides ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 2301-2315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Sylfest Glimsdal ◽  
Carl B. Harbitz
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Event Trees ◽  
To Come ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Landslide Tsunami ◽  
Prognostic Modelling

Abstract Landslides are the second most frequent tsunami source worldwide. However, their complex and diverse nature of origin combined with their infrequent event records make prognostic modelling challenging. In this paper, we present a probabilistic framework for analysing uncertainties emerging from the landslide source process. This probabilistic framework employs event trees and is used to conduct tsunami uncertainty analysis as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). An example study is presented for the Lyngen fjord in Norway. This application uses a mix of empirical landslide data combined with expert judgement to come up with probability maps for tsunami inundation. Based on this study, it is concluded that the present landslide tsunami hazard analysis is largely driven by epistemic uncertainties. These epistemic uncertainties can be incorporated in the probabilistic framework. Conducting a literature analysis, we further show examples of how landslide and tsunami data can be used to better constrain landslide uncertainties, combined with statistical and numerical analysis methods. We discuss how these methods, combined with the probabilistic framework, can be used to improve landslide tsunami hazard analysis in the future.

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