The Effective Reproduction Number as a Prelude to Statistical Estimation of Time-Dependent Epidemic Trends

2009 ◽  
pp. 103-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Nishiura ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Estimation Of Time

COVID-19: Time-Dependent Effective Reproduction Number and Sub-notification Effect Estimation Modeling (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho ◽  
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Effect Estimation ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results. OBJECTIVE This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations. METHODS The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented. RESULTS Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced. CONCLUSIONS We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.

scholarly journals Fractional SIR-Model for Estimating Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in India

J ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal ◽  
Ankit Sikarwar
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Fundamental Parameters ◽  
Different Order ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this article, a time-dependent susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is constructed to investigate the transmission rate of COVID-19 in various regions of India. The model included the fundamental parameters on which the transmission rate of the infection is dependent, like the population density, contact rate, recovery rate, and intensity of the infection in the respective region. Looking at the great diversity in different geographic locations in India, we determined to calculate the basic reproduction number for all Indian districts based on the COVID-19 data till 7 July 2020. By preparing district-wise spatial distribution maps with the help of ArcGIS 10.2, the model was employed to show the effect of complete lockdown on the transmission rate of the COVID-19 infection in Indian districts. Moreover, with the model's transformation to the fractional ordered dynamical system, we found that the nature of the proposed SIR model is different for the different order of the systems. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is done graphically which forecasts the change in the transmission rate of COVID-19 infection with change in different parameters. In the numerical simulation section, oscillations and variations in the model compartments are shown for two different situations, with and without lockdown.

Statistical estimation of time-trends in two-course crop rotations

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 589-597
Author(s):  
Murari Singh ◽  
Michael J. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Time Trends ◽  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
Crop Rotations ◽  
Estimation Of Time

Strain-based estimation of time-dependent transmural myocardial architecture in the ovine heart

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 521-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarina Kindberg ◽  
Charlotte Oom ◽  
Neil B. Ingels ◽  
Matts Karlsson
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Estimation Of Time ◽  
Myocardial Architecture

Real-time estimation of time-dependent imposed heat flux in graded index media by KF-RLSE algorithm

2019 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuang Wen ◽  
Hong Qi ◽  
Xiao-Ying Yu ◽  
Ya-Tao Ren ◽  
Lin-Yang Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Graded Index ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Estimation Of Time
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