The Impact of Anthropogenic and Biogenic Emissions on Surface Ozone Concentrations in Istanbul: A Modeling Study

2011 ◽  
pp. 103-106
Author(s):  
Ulaş İm ◽  
Anastasia Poupkou ◽  
Selahattin İncecik ◽  
Kostandinos Markakis ◽  
Tayfun Kindap ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modeling Study

scholarly journals Solar “brightening” impact on summer surface ozone between 1990 and 2010 in Europe – a model sensitivity study of the influence of the aerosol–radiation interactions

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 9741-9765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Oikonomakis ◽  
Sebnem Aksoyoglu ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
Giancarlo Ciarelli ◽  
Urs Baltensperger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Photolysis Rates ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Surface solar radiation (SSR) observations have indicated an increasing trend in Europe since the mid-1980s, referred to as solar “brightening”. In this study, we used the regional air quality model, CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions) to simulate and quantify, with various sensitivity runs (where the year 2010 served as the base case), the effects of increased radiation between 1990 and 2010 on photolysis rates (with the PHOT1, PHOT2 and PHOT3 scenarios, which represented the radiation in 1990) and biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions (with the BIO scenario, which represented the biogenic emissions in 1990), and their consequent impacts on summer surface ozone concentrations over Europe between 1990 and 2010. The PHOT1 and PHOT2 scenarios examined the effect of doubling and tripling the anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, while the PHOT3 investigated the impact of an increase in just the sulfate concentrations by a factor of 3.4 (as in 1990), applied only to the calculation of photolysis rates. In the BIO scenario, we reduced the 2010 SSR by 3 % (keeping plant cover and temperature the same), recalculated the biogenic emissions and repeated the base case simulations with the new biogenic emissions. The impact on photolysis rates for all three scenarios was an increase (in 2010 compared to 1990) of 3–6 % which resulted in daytime (10:00–18:00 Local Mean Time – LMT) mean surface ozone differences of 0.2–0.7 ppb (0.5–1.5 %), with the largest hourly difference rising as high as 4–8 ppb (10–16 %). The effect of changes in BVOC emissions on daytime mean surface ozone was much smaller (up to 0.08 ppb, ∼ 0.2 %), as isoprene and terpene (monoterpene and sesquiterpene) emissions increased only by 2.5–3 and 0.7 %, respectively. Overall, the impact of the SSR changes on surface ozone was greater via the effects on photolysis rates compared to the effects on BVOC emissions, and the sensitivity test of their combined impact (the combination of PHOT3 and BIO is denoted as the COMBO scenario) showed nearly additive effects. In addition, all the sensitivity runs were repeated on a second base case with increased NOx emissions to account for any potential underestimation of modeled ozone production; the results did not change significantly in magnitude, but the spatial coverage of the effects was profoundly extended. Finally, the role of the aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) changes in the European summer surface ozone trends was suggested to be more important when comparing to the order of magnitude of the ozone trends instead of the total ozone concentrations, indicating a potential partial damping of the effects of ozone precursor emissions' reduction.

The impact of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on surface ozone concentrations in Istanbul

2011 ◽  
Vol 409 (7) ◽  
pp. 1255-1265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulas Im ◽  
Anastasia Poupkou ◽  
Selahattin Incecik ◽  
Konstantinos Markakis ◽  
Tayfun Kindap ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of solar brightening on summer surface ozone over Europe between 1990 and 2010

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Oikonomakis ◽  
Sebnem Aksoyoglu ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
Giancarlo Ciarelli ◽  
Urs Baltensperger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Photolysis Rates ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Surface solar radiation (SSR) observations have indicated an increasing trend in Europe since the mid-1980s, referred to as solar brightening. In this study, we used the regional air quality model, CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions) to simulate and quantify, with various sensitivity runs (where the year 2010 served as the base case), the effects of increased radiation on photolysis rates (PHOT1, PHOT2 and PHOT3 scenarios) and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions (BIO scenario), and their consequent impacts on summer surface ozone concentrations over Europe between 1990 and 2010. The PHOT1 and PHOT2 scenarios examined the effect of doubling and tripling the anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, while the PHOT3 investigated the impact of an increase in just the sulfate concentrations by a factor of 3.4 (as in 1990), applied only to the calculation of photolysis rates. In the BIO scenario, we reduced the 2010 SSR by 3 % (keeping plant cover and temperature the same), re-calculated the biogenic emissions and repeated the base case simulations with the new biogenic emissions. The impact on photolysis rates for all three scenarios was an increase (in 2010 compared to 1990) of 3–6 % which resulted in daytime (10:00–18:00 Local Mean Time (LMT)) mean surface ozone differences of 0.2–0.7 ppb (0.5–1.5 %), with the largest hourly difference rising as high as 4–8 ppb (10–16 %). The effect of changes in BVOCs emissions on daytime mean surface ozone was much smaller (up to 0.08 ppb, ~ 0.2 %), as isoprene and terpene (monoterpene and sesquiterpene) emissions increased only by 2.5–3 % and 0.7 %, respectively. Overall, the impact of the SSR changes on surface ozone was greater via the effects on photolysis rates compared to the effects on BVOCs emissions, and the sensitivity test of their combined impact (PHOT3 + BIO = COMBO scenario) showed nearly additive effects. In addition, all the sensitivity runs were repeated on a second base case with increased NOx emissions to account for any potential underestimation of modeled ozone production; the results did not change significantly in magnitude, but the spatial coverage of the effects was profoundly extended. Finally, the role of the solar brightening in the European summer surface ozone trends was suggested to be more important when comparing to the order of magnitude of the ozone trends instead of the total ozone concentrations, indicating a potential partial damping of the effects of ozone precursor emissions reduction.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Surface Ozone Simulation to Cumulus Parameterization

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1456-1466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhining Tao ◽  
Allen Williams ◽  
Ho-Chun Huang ◽  
Michael Caughey ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Boundary Layer Height ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Cumulus Schemes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Different cumulus schemes cause significant discrepancies in simulated precipitation, cloud cover, and temperature, which in turn lead to remarkable differences in simulated biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and surface ozone concentrations. As part of an effort to investigate the impact (and its uncertainty) of climate changes on U.S. air quality, this study evaluates the sensitivity of BVOC emissions and surface ozone concentrations to the Grell (GR) and Kain–Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Overall, using the KF scheme yields less cloud cover, larger incident solar radiation, warmer surface temperature, and higher boundary layer height and hence generates more BVOC emissions than those using the GR scheme. As a result, the KF (versus GR) scheme produces more than 10 ppb of summer mean daily maximum 8-h ozone concentration over broad regions, resulting in a doubling of the number of high-ozone occurrences. The contributions of meteorological conditions versus BVOC emissions on regional ozone sensitivities to the choice of the cumulus scheme largely offset each other in the California and Texas regions, but the contrast in BVOC emissions dominates over that in the meteorological conditions for ozone differences in the Midwest and Northeast regions. The result demonstrates the necessity of considering the uncertainty of future ozone projections that are identified with alternative model physics configurations.

scholarly journals Changes of daily surface ozone maxima in Switzerland in all seasons from 1992 to 2002 and discussion of summer 2003

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1187-1203 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Ordóñez ◽  
H. Mathis ◽  
M. Furger ◽  
S. Henne ◽  
C. Hüglin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Analysis Of Covariance ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Lower Effect ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was used to derive the influence of the meteorological variability on the daily maximum ozone concentrations at 12 low-elevation sites north of the Alps in Switzerland during the four seasons in the 1992–2002 period. The afternoon temperature and the morning global radiation were the variables that accounted for most of the meteorological variability in summer and spring, while other variables that can be related to vertical mixing and dilution of primary pollutants (afternoon global radiation, wind speed, stability or day of the week) were more significant in winter. In addition, the number of days after a frontal passage was important to account for ozone build-up in summer and ozone destruction in winter. The statistical model proved to be a robust tool for reducing the impact of the meteorological variability on the ozone concentrations. The explained variance of the model, averaged over all stations, ranged from 60.2% in winter to 71.9% in autumn. The year-to-year variability of the seasonal medians of daily ozone maxima was reduced by 85% in winter, 60% in summer, and 50% in autumn and spring after the meteorological adjustment. For most stations, no significantly negative trends (at the 95% confidence level) of the summer medians of daily O3 or Ox (O3+NO2) maxima were found despite the significant reduction in the precursor emissions in Central Europe. However, significant downward trends in the summer 90th percentiles of daily Ox maxima were observed at 6 sites in the region around Zürich (on average −0.73 ppb yr-1 for those sites). The lower effect of the titration by NO as a consequence of the reduced emissions could partially explain the significantly positive O3 trends in the cold seasons (on average 0.69 ppb yr-1 in winter and 0.58 ppb yr-1 in autumn). The increase of Ox found for most stations in autumn (on average 0.23 ppb yr-1) and winter (on average 0.39 ppb yr-1) could be due to increasing European background ozone levels, in agreement with other studies. The statistical model was also able to explain the very high ozone concentrations in summer 2003, the warmest summer in Switzerland for at least ~150 years. On average, the measured daily ozone maximum was 15 ppb (nearly 29%) higher than in the reference period summer 1992–2002, corresponding to an excess of 5 standard deviations of the summer means of daily ozone maxima in that period.

scholarly journals Biomass burning related ozone damage on vegetation over the Amazon forest: a model sensitivity study

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 2791-2804 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Pacifico ◽  
G. A. Folberth ◽  
S. Sitch ◽  
J. M. Haywood ◽  
L. V. Rizzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Vegetation Productivity ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The HadGEM2 earth system climate model was used to assess the impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations over the Amazon forest and its impact on vegetation, under present-day climate conditions. Here we consider biomass burning emissions from wildfires, deforestation fires, agricultural forest burning, and residential and commercial combustion. Simulated surface ozone concentration is evaluated against observations taken at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon forest for years 2010 to 2012. The model is able to reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of surface ozone mixing ratio at the two sites, but overestimates the magnitude of the monthly averaged hourly measurements by 5–15 ppb for each available month at one of the sites. We vary biomass burning emissions over South America by ±20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% to quantify the modelled impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations and ozone damage on vegetation productivity over the Amazon forest. We used the ozone damage scheme in the "high" sensitivity mode to give an upper limit for this effect. Decreasing South American biomass burning emissions by 100% (i.e. to zero) reduces surface ozone concentrations (by about 15 ppb during the biomass burning season) and suggests a 15% increase in monthly mean net primary productivity averaged over the Amazon forest, with local increases up to 60%. The simulated impact of ozone damage from present-day biomass burning on vegetation productivity is about 230 TgC yr−1. Taking into account that uncertainty in these estimates is substantial, this ozone damage impact over the Amazon forest is of the same order of magnitude as the release of carbon dioxide due to fire in South America; in effect it potentially doubles the impact of biomass burning on the carbon cycle.

scholarly journals Impact of forest fires, biogenic emissions and high temperatures on the elevated Eastern Mediterranean ozone levels during the hot summer of 2007

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 8727-8750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ø. Hodnebrog ◽  
S. Solberg ◽  
F. Stordal ◽  
T. M. Svendby ◽  
D. Simpson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Temperatures ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. The hot summer of 2007 in southeast Europe has been studied using two regional atmospheric chemistry models; WRF-Chem and EMEP MSC-W. The region was struck by three heat waves and a number of forest fire episodes, greatly affecting air pollution levels. We have focused on ozone and its precursors using state-of-the-art inventories for anthropogenic, biogenic and forest fire emissions. The models have been evaluated against measurement data, and processes leading to ozone formation have been quantified. Heat wave episodes are projected to occur more frequently in a future climate, and therefore this study also makes a contribution to climate change impact research. The plume from the Greek forest fires in August 2007 is clearly seen in satellite observations of CO and NO2 columns, showing extreme levels of CO in and downwind of the fires. Model simulations reflect the location and influence of the fires relatively well, but the modelled magnitude of CO in the plume core is too low. Most likely, this is caused by underestimation of CO in the emission inventories, suggesting that the CO/NOx ratios of fire emissions should be re-assessed. Moreover, higher maximum values are seen in WRF-Chem than in EMEP MSC-W, presumably due to differences in plume rise altitudes as the first model emits a larger fraction of the fire emissions in the lowermost model layer. The model results are also in fairly good agreement with surface ozone measurements. Biogenic VOC emissions reacting with anthropogenic NOx emissions are calculated to contribute significantly to the levels of ozone in the region, but the magnitude and geographical distribution depend strongly on the model and biogenic emission module used. During the July and August heat waves, ozone levels increased substantially due to a combination of forest fire emissions and the effect of high temperatures. We found that the largest temperature impact on ozone was through the temperature dependence of the biogenic emissions, closely followed by the effect of reduced dry deposition caused by closing of the plants' stomata at very high temperatures. The impact of high temperatures on the ozone chemistry was much lower. The results suggest that forest fire emissions, and the temperature effect on biogenic emissions and dry deposition, will potentially lead to substantial ozone increases in a warmer climate.

scholarly journals European summer surface ozone 1990–2100

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 7705-7726 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Langner ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
C. Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emissions on summer surface ozone in Europe were studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April–September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O3 and reduced emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations, although on the British Isles the combined effect is an increase. Due to substantial decadal variability in the simulations it is important to study averages over sufficiently long time periods in order to be able to extract robust signals of climate change impacts on surface O3 concentrations.

scholarly journals The impact of emissions and climate change on ozone in the United States under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 11315-11355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Gao ◽  
J. S. Fu ◽  
J. B. Drake ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
Y. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
The United States ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Photochemical Reactions ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate–chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in 2050s. Ozone concentrations in the lower-mid troposphere (surface to ~ 300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), show decreasing trends in RCP 4.5 between 2000s and 2050s, with the largest decrease of 4–10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and increasing trends (2–12 ppbv) in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. In RCP 8.5, methane emissions increase by ~ 60% by the end of 2050s, accounting for more than 90% of ozone increases in summer and fall, and 60–80% in spring and winter. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations, ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions and enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to more than 8 ppbv of the maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone during the heat wave days than other days; this indicates the dramatic impact heat waves exert on high frequency ozone events.

scholarly journals The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 9607-9621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Gao ◽  
J. S. Fu ◽  
J. B. Drake ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
Y. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
The United States ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Photochemical Reactions ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in the 2050s. From the CAM-Chem global simulation results, ozone concentrations in the lower to mid-troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases by the end of the 2050s (2057–2059) in RCP 4.5 compared to present (2001–2004), with the largest decrease of 4–10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and an increase as high as 10 ppbv in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. From the regional model CMAQ simulation results, under the RCP 4.5 scenario (2057–2059), in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations compared to present (2001–2004), ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions. More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of the 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to a 0.3 ppbv to 2.0 ppbv increase (statistically significant except in the Southeast) of the mean maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone in nine climate regions in the US. Moreover, the upper 95% limit of MDA8 increase reaches 0.4 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv in RCP 4.5 and 0.6 ppbv to 3.2 ppbv in RCP 8.5. The magnitude differences of increase between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also reflect that the increase of methane emissions may favor or strengthen the effect of heat waves.

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