Sustainability Under Severe Uncertainty: A Probability-Bounds-Analysis-Based Approach

2013 ◽  
pp. 51-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kailiang Zheng ◽  
Helen H. Lou ◽  
Yinlun Huang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Bounds ◽  
Severe Uncertainty

Probability Bounds for M-Skorohod Oscillations.

1986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florin Avram ◽  
Murrad S. Taqqu
Keyword(s):  
Probability Bounds

scholarly journals A Pairing-Free Identity-Based Identification Scheme with Tight Security Using Modified-Schnorr Signatures

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1330
Author(s):  
Jason Chia ◽  
Ji-Jian Chin ◽  
Sook-Chin Yip
Keyword(s):  
Key Management ◽  
Discrete Logarithm ◽  
Probability Bounds ◽  
Diffie Hellman ◽  
Identity Based ◽  
Symmetric Key ◽  
Security Guarantees ◽  
Lightweight Authentication ◽  
Tight Security ◽  
Schnorr Signatures

The security of cryptographic schemes is proven secure by reducing an attacker which breaks the scheme to an algorithm that could be used to solve the underlying hard assumption (e.g., Discrete Logarithm, Decisional Diffie–Hellman). The reduction is considered tight if it results in approximately similar probability bounds to that of solving the underlying hard assumption. Tight security is desirable as it improves security guarantees and allows the use of shorter parameters without the risk of compromising security. In this work, we propose an identity-based identification (IBI) scheme with tight security based on a variant of the Schnorr signature scheme known as TNC signatures. The proposed IBI scheme enjoys shorter parameters and key sizes as compared to existing IBI schemes without increasing the number of operations required for its identification protocol. Our scheme is suitable to be used for lightweight authentication in resource-constrained Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as it utilizes the lowest amount of bandwidth when compared to other state-of-the-art symmetric key lightweight authentication schemes. Although it is costlier than its symmetric key counterparts in terms of operational costs due to its asymmetric key nature, it enjoys other benefits such as decentralized authentication and scalable key management. As a proof of concept to substantiate our claims, we perform an implementation of our scheme to demonstrate its speed and memory usage when it runs on both high and low-end devices.

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to the Sandia Verification and Validation Challenge Problem

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aniruddha Choudhary ◽  
Ian T. Voyles ◽  
Christopher J. Roy ◽  
William L. Oberkampf ◽  
Mayuresh Patil
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Physical Nature ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Verification And Validation ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Probability Bounds ◽  
Model Form ◽  
Interval Representation ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
True System

Our approach to the Sandia Verification and Validation Challenge Problem is to use probability bounds analysis (PBA) based on probabilistic representation for aleatory uncertainties and interval representation for (most) epistemic uncertainties. The nondeterministic model predictions thus take the form of p-boxes, or bounding cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) that contain all possible families of CDFs that could exist within the uncertainty bounds. The scarcity of experimental data provides little support for treatment of all uncertain inputs as purely aleatory uncertainties and also precludes significant calibration of the models. We instead seek to estimate the model form uncertainty at conditions where the experimental data are available, then extrapolate this uncertainty to conditions where no data exist. The modified area validation metric (MAVM) is employed to estimate the model form uncertainty which is important because the model involves significant simplifications (both geometric and physical nature) of the true system. The results of verification and validation processes are treated as additional interval-based uncertainties applied to the nondeterministic model predictions based on which the failure prediction is made. Based on the method employed, we estimate the probability of failure to be as large as 0.0034, concluding that the tanks are unsafe.

Environmental risk assessment of acid rock drainage under uncertainty: The probability bounds and PHREEQC approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 301 ◽  
pp. 187-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Getnet D. Betrie ◽  
Rehan Sadiq ◽  
Craig Nichol ◽  
Kevin A. Morin ◽  
Solomon Tesfamariam
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment ◽  
Acid Rock Drainage ◽  
Acid Rock ◽  
Probability Bounds

scholarly journals ASSESSING REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES: A MULTI-CRITERIA AND MULTI-STAKEHOLDER DECISION AID TOOL

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasileios A. Mantogiannis ◽  
Fotios A. Katsigiannis
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Solution Approach ◽  
Decision Environment ◽  
Multi Stakeholder ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Severe Uncertainty

Investment decisions in private real-estate demand the consideration of several qualitative and quantitative criteria, as well as the different or even conflicting interests of the participating stakeholders. Meanwhile, certain indicators are subject to severe uncertainty, which will eventually alter the expected outcome of the investment decision. Even though multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques have been extensively used in real-estate investment appraisals, there is limited evidence from the private rented sector, which constitutes a large part of the existing real estate assets. The existing approaches are not designed to capture the inherent variability of the decision environment, and they do not always achieve a consensus among the participating actors. In this work, through a rigorous literature review, we were able to identify a comprehensive list of assessment criteria, which were further validated through an iterative Delphi-based consensus-making process. The selected criteria were then used to construct an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model evaluating four real world, real estate investment alternatives from the UK private rented market. The volatility of the financial performance indicators was grasped through several Monte Carlo simulation runs. We tested the described solution approach with preference data obtained by seven senior real estate decision-makers. Our computational results suggest that financial performance is the main group of selection criteria. However, the sensitivity of the outcome indicates that location and property characteristics may greatly affect real estate investment decisions.

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