Long-Term and Annual Influence of Aswan Reservoir (Egypt) on the Local Seismicity: A Spatio-Temporal Statistical Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 174 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalpna Gahalaut ◽  
Awad Hassoup ◽  
Haggag Hamed ◽  
Bhaskar Kundu ◽  
Vineet Gahalaut
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Local Seismicity ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Aswan Reservoir

scholarly journals Documentary data and the study of past droughts: a global state of the art

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 1915-1960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Andrea Kiss ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
David J. Nash ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Instrumental Observations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epigraphic Evidence ◽  
Administrative Evidence

Abstract. The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including general annals, chronicles, memoirs and diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather; records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records; legal-administrative evidence; religious sources; letters; songs; newspapers and journals; pictographic evidence; chronograms; epigraphic evidence; early instrumental observations; society commentaries; and compilations and books. These are available from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socio-economic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also considered from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

scholarly journals Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1928) ◽  
pp. 20200538
Author(s):  
Warren S. D. Tennant ◽  
Mike J. Tildesley ◽  
Simon E. F. Spencer ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
British India ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

Seabird bycatch vulnerability in pelagic longline fisheries based on modelling of a long-term dataset

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
CAN ZHOU ◽  
NIGEL BROTHERS
Keyword(s):  
Capture Event ◽  
Retrieval Rate ◽  
Competitive Environments ◽  
Global Concern ◽  
Competitive Species ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Longline Fisheries ◽  
Pelagic Longline

Summary The incidental mortality of seabirds in fisheries remains a serious global concern. Obtaining unbiased and accurate estimates of bycatch rates is a priority for seabird bycatch mitigation and demographic research. For measuring the capture risk of seabird interactions in fisheries, the rate of carcass retrieval from hauled gear is commonly used. However, reliability can be limited by a lack of direct capture observations and the substantial pre-haul bycatch losses known to occur, meaning incidence of seabird bycatch is underestimated. To solve this problem, a new measure (bycatch vulnerability) that links an observed interaction directly to the underlying capture event is proposed to represent the capture risk of fishery interactions by seabirds. The new measure is not affected by subsequent bycatch loss. To illustrate how to estimate and analyse bycatch vulnerability, a case study based on a long-term dataset of seabird interactions and capture confirmation is provided. Bayesian modelling and hypothesis testing were conducted to identify important bycatch risk factors. Competition was found to play a central role in determining seabird bycatch vulnerability. More competitive environments were riskier for seabirds, and larger and thus more competitive species were more at risk than smaller sized and less competitive species. Species foraging behaviour also played a role. On the other hand, no additional effect of physical oceanic condition and spatio-temporal factors on bycatch vulnerability was detected. Bycatch vulnerability is recommended as a replacement for the commonly used bycatch rate or carcass retrieval rate to measure the capture risk of an interaction. Combined with a normalized contact rate, bycatch vulnerability offers an unbiased estimate of seabird bycatch rate in pelagic longline fisheries.

Comparative Analysis of Patients with Robotic Hiatal Hernia Repairs with and without Collis Gastroplasty

2021 ◽  
pp. 000313482198905
Author(s):  
John A. Perrone ◽  
Stephanie Yee ◽  
Manrique Guerrero ◽  
Antai Wang ◽  
Brian Hanley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Hospital Stay ◽  
Hiatal Hernia ◽  
Collis Gastroplasty ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Related Quality

Introduction After extensive mediastinal dissection fails to achieve adequate intra-abdominal esophageal length, a Collis gastroplasty(CG) is recommended to decrease axial tension and reduce hiatal hernia recurrence. However, concerns exist about staple line leak, and long-term symptoms of heartburn and dysphagia due to the acid-producing neoesophagus which lacks peristaltic activity. This study aimed to assess long-term satisfaction and GERD-related quality of life after robotic fundoplication with CG (wedge fundectomy technique) and to compare outcomes to patients who underwent fundoplication without CG. Outcomes studied included patient satisfaction, resumption of proton pump inhibitors (PPI), length of surgery (LOS), hospital stay, and reintervention. Methods This was a single-center retrospective analysis of patients from January 2017 through December 2018 undergoing elective robotic hiatal hernia repair and fundoplication. 61 patients were contacted for follow-up, of which 20 responded. Of those 20 patients, 7 had a CG performed during surgery while 13 did not. There was no significant difference in size and type of hiatal hernias in the 2 groups. These patients agreed to give their feedback via a GERD health-related quality of life (GERD HRQL) questionnaire. Their medical records were reviewed for LOS, length of hospital stay (LOH), and reintervention needed. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS v 25. Satisfaction and need for PPIs were compared between the treatment and control groups using the chi-square test of independence. Results Statistical analysis showed that satisfaction with outcome and PPI resumption was not significantly different between both groups ( P > .05). There was a significant difference in the average ranks between the 2 groups for the question on postoperative dysphagia on the follow-up GERD HRQL questionnaire, with the group with CG reporting no dysphagia. There were no significant differences in the average ranks between the 2 groups for the remaining 15 questions ( P > .05). The median LOS was longer in patients who had a CG compared to patients who did not (250 vs. 148 min) ( P = .01). The LOH stay was not significantly different ( P > .05) with a median length of stay of 2 days observed in both groups. There were no leaks in the Collis group and no reoperations, conversions, or blood transfusions needed in either group. Conclusion Collis gastroplasty is a safe option to utilize for short esophagus noted despite extensive mediastinal mobilization and does not adversely affect the LOH stay, need for reoperation, or patient long-term satisfaction.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal associations of air pollutant concentrations, GP respiratory consultations and respiratory inhaler prescriptions: a 5-year study of primary care in the borough of Lambeth, South London

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Ashworth ◽  
◽  
Antonis Analitis ◽  
David Whitney ◽  
Evangelia Samoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Respiratory Morbidity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Although the associations of outdoor air pollution exposure with mortality and hospital admissions are well established, few previous studies have reported on primary care clinical and prescribing data. We assessed the associations of short and long-term pollutant exposures with General Practitioner respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions. Methods Daily primary care data, for 2009–2013, were obtained from Lambeth DataNet (LDN), an anonymised dataset containing coded data from all patients (1.2 million) registered at general practices in Lambeth, an inner-city south London borough. Counts of respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions by day and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence were constructed. We developed models for predicting daily PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3 per LSOA. We used spatio-temporal mixed effects zero inflated negative binomial models to investigate the simultaneous short- and long-term effects of exposure to pollutants on the number of events. Results The mean concentrations of NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and O3 over the study period were 50.7, 21.2, 15.6, and 49.9 μg/m3 respectively, with all pollutants except NO2 having much larger temporal rather than spatial variability. Following short-term exposure increases to PM10, NO2 and PM2.5 the number of consultations and inhaler prescriptions were found to increase, especially for PM10 exposure in children which was associated with increases in daily respiratory consultations of 3.4% and inhaler prescriptions of 0.8%, per PM10 interquartile range (IQR) increase. Associations further increased after adjustment for weekly average exposures, rising to 6.1 and 1.2%, respectively, for weekly average PM10 exposure. In contrast, a short-term increase in O3 exposure was associated with decreased number of respiratory consultations. No association was found between long-term exposures to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and number of respiratory consultations. Long-term exposure to NO2 was associated with an increase (8%) in preventer inhaler prescriptions only. Conclusions We found increases in the daily number of GP respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions following short-term increases in exposure to NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. These associations are more pronounced in children and persist for at least a week. The association with long term exposure to NO2 and preventer inhaler prescriptions indicates likely increased chronic respiratory morbidity.

scholarly journals Imaging spatio-temporal patterns of long-term potentiation in mouse hippocampus

2003 ◽  
Vol 358 (1432) ◽  
pp. 689-693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiyuki Hosokawa ◽  
Masaki Ohta ◽  
Takeshi Saito ◽  
Alan Fine
Keyword(s):  
Hippocampal Slices ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Long Term Potentiation ◽  
Optical Recording ◽  
Stratum Radiatum ◽  
High Frequency Stimulation ◽  
Optical Signals ◽  
Term Potentiation ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Spatio-temporal patterns of neuronal activity before and after the induction of long-term potentiation in mouse hippocampal slices were studied using a real-time high-resolution optical recording system. After staining the slices with voltage-sensitive dye, transmitted light images and extracellular field potentials were recorded in response to stimuli applied to CA1 stratum radiatum. Optical and electrical signals in response to single test pulses were enhanced for at least 30 minutes after brief high-frequency stimulation at the same site. In two-pathway experiments, potentiation was restricted to the tetanized pathway. The optical signals demonstrated that both the amplitude and area of the synaptic response were increased, in patterns not predictable from the initial, pretetanus, pattern of activation. Optical signals will be useful for investigating spatio-temporal patterns of synaptic enhancement underlying information storage in the brain.

scholarly journals Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1806) ◽  
pp. 20150173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayco J. M. Tack ◽  
Tommi Mononen ◽  
Ilkka Hanski
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Life History Stage ◽  
General Effect ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Glanville Fritillary Butterfly ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly ( Melitaea cinxia ) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

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