scholarly journals Machine learning algorithm to predict anterior cruciate ligament revision demonstrates external validity

Author(s):  
R. Kyle Martin ◽  
Solvejg Wastvedt ◽  
Ayoosh Pareek ◽  
Andreas Persson ◽  
Håvard Visnes ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose External validation of machine learning predictive models is achieved through evaluation of model performance on different groups of patients than were used for algorithm development. This important step is uncommonly performed, inhibiting clinical translation of newly developed models. Machine learning analysis of the Norwegian Knee Ligament Register (NKLR) recently led to the development of a tool capable of estimating the risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) revision (https://swastvedt.shinyapps.io/calculator_rev/). The purpose of this study was to determine the external validity of the NKLR model by assessing algorithm performance when applied to patients from the Danish Knee Ligament Registry (DKLR). Methods The primary outcome measure of the NKLR model was probability of revision ACL reconstruction within 1, 2, and/or 5 years. For external validation, all DKLR patients with complete data for the five variables required for NKLR prediction were included. The five variables included graft choice, femur fixation device, KOOS QOL score at surgery, years from injury to surgery, and age at surgery. Predicted revision probabilities were calculated for all DKLR patients. The model performance was assessed using the same metrics as the NKLR study: concordance and calibration. Results In total, 10,922 DKLR patients were included for analysis. Average follow-up time or time-to-revision was 8.4 (± 4.3) years and overall revision rate was 6.9%. Surgical technique trends (i.e., graft choice and fixation devices) and injury characteristics (i.e., concomitant meniscus and cartilage pathology) were dissimilar between registries. The model produced similar concordance when applied to the DKLR population compared to the original NKLR test data (DKLR: 0.68; NKLR: 0.68–0.69). Calibration was poorer for the DKLR population at one and five years post primary surgery but similar to the NKLR at two years. Conclusion The NKLR machine learning algorithm demonstrated similar performance when applied to patients from the DKLR, suggesting that it is valid for application outside of the initial patient population. This represents the first machine learning model for predicting revision ACL reconstruction that has been externally validated. Clinicians can use this in-clinic calculator to estimate revision risk at a patient specific level when discussing outcome expectations pre-operatively. While encouraging, it should be noted that the performance of the model on patients undergoing ACL reconstruction outside of Scandinavia remains unknown. Level of evidence III.

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 2325967119S0007
Author(s):  
Crystal Perkins ◽  
Michael Busch ◽  
Melissa Christino ◽  
Belinda Schaafsma ◽  
S. Clifton Willimon

Background: Graft selection for skeletally mature adolescents undergoing anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is guided by surgeon and patient preference. In young patients returning to high-risk cutting and pivoting sports, graft rupture is the most feared complication of ACL reconstruction. Some studies have demonstrated slightly lower rates of graft failure and decreased laxity in the short term associated with patellar tendon (BTB) autografts as compared to hamstring (HS) autografts, but these studies are limited by their heterogeneity of ages and activity level1-3. The purpose of this study is to compare the rates of graft failure between BTB and HS ACL reconstruction cohorts matched by age, sex, and sport. Methods: A single-institution retrospective review was performed of consecutive patients less than 19 years of age treated with ACL reconstructions using either patellar tendon (BTB) or hamstring (HS) autograft performed by a single surgeon. Skeletally mature or nearly mature patients in “high-risk” ACL injury sports (basketball, football, soccer, lacrosse, and gymnastics) were initially treated with hamstring autografts but the graft preference transitioned to BTB autografts as the preferred graft choice during the study period. This transition in graft preference for adolescents participating in “high risk” sports allows for a comparison of outcomes based on graft types. Inclusion criteria were ages 13 – 18 years, participation in a “high risk” sport, and minimum 6-month follow-up. The two cohorts of patients were matched by age, gender, and sport. The primary outcome measure was graft rupture. Results: One hundred fifty-two patients with an average age of 16 years (range 13 – 18 years) underwent ACL reconstruction during the study period. There were 71 BTB reconstructions and 81 HS reconstructions. There were 64 females and 88 males. There was no difference in age, sex, BMI, or laterality between groups. There were more patients who played soccer in the BTB cohort (44%) vs HS cohort (20%) and fewer who played basketball in the BTB cohort (24%) vs HS cohort (41%), p = 0.005. There were no differences between the BTB and HS cohorts in terms of meniscus tears (61% v 72%, p = 0.15), meniscus repair (21% v 32%, p = 0.13), or partial meniscectomy (32% v 33%, p = 0.90). Mean duration of follow-up was 28 months (range 7-57 months). There was no difference in follow-up between cohorts (BTB 28 months and HS 29 months, p = 0.19). There were a total of 16 graft ruptures (10.5%). There was no difference in the rate of graft rupture between cohorts (BTB 8.5% vs HS 12.3%, p = 0.60). Mean time to graft rupture was 21 months (range 8 – 35 months) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated no difference between cohorts. Conclusions: ACL reconstruction in adolescents returning to high-risk sports can be performed utilizing BTB or HS autografts with similar rates of graft rupture. There is a trend toward lower rates of graft rupture associated with BTB autografts, but additional patients will be necessary to determine if this trend will become a statistically significant difference. Beynnon BD, Johnson RJ, Fleming BC, et al. Anterior cruciate ligament replacement: comparison of bone-patellar tendon bone grafts with two-strand hamstring grafts. A prospective, randomized study. J Bone Joint Surg Am 2002;84(9):1503-1513. Ho B, Edmonds EW, Chambers HG et al. Risk factors for early ACL reconstruction failure in pediatric and adolescent patients: a review of 561 cases. J Pediatr Orthop 2016. Samuelsen BT, Webster KE, Johnson NR, et al. Hamstring autograft versus patellar tendon autograft for ACL reconstruction: is there a difference in graft failure rate? A meta-analysis of 47,613 patients. Clin Orthop Relat Res 2017;475(10):2459-2468.


2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (12) ◽  
pp. 2851-2858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Hamrin Senorski ◽  
Eleonor Svantesson ◽  
Kurt P. Spindler ◽  
Eduard Alentorn-Geli ◽  
David Sundemo ◽  
...  

Background: Factors relating to the patient and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction may help to identify prognostic factors of long-term outcome after reconstruction. Purpose: To determine 10-year risk factors for inferior knee function after ACL reconstruction. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: Prospectively collected data from the Swedish National Knee Ligament Register were extracted for patients who underwent ACL reconstruction between January 2005 and December 2006. Patients who had no data at the 10-year follow-up for the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) were excluded. Multivariable proportional odds regression modeling was used to assess 10-year patient- and surgery-related risk factors across all the KOOS subscales and the KOOS4 (mean score of 4 subscales: pain, knee-related symptoms, function in sport and recreation, and knee-related quality of life). Results: A total of 874 (41%) patients were included (male, 51.5%; median age at the time of ACL reconstruction, 27.5 years [range, 11.2-61.5 years]). An increase in the severity of concomitant articular cartilage injuries resulted in a reduced KOOS on 4 subscales (odds ratio, 0.64-0.80; P < .05). A higher preoperative KOOS pain score increased the odds of a higher score on the pain, symptoms, and sport subscales and the KOOS4. In addition, a higher preoperative body mass index was a significant risk factor for lower scores on 3 KOOS subscales and the KOOS4. No patient- or surgery-related predictor was significant across all KOOS subscales. Conclusion: This 10-year risk factor analysis identified several factors that can affect long-term knee function after ACL reconstruction. Most risk factors were related to preoperative patient-reported outcome and potentially modifiable. On the other hand, most of the surgery-related risk factors were nonmodifiable. Nevertheless, this information may be helpful to physicians and physical therapists counseling patients on their expectations of outcome after ACL reconstruction.


2019 ◽  
Vol 101-B (1) ◽  
pp. 34-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kraus Schmitz ◽  
V. Lindgren ◽  
P-M. Janarv ◽  
M. Forssblad ◽  
A. Stålman

Aims The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence, risk factors, and outcome of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction in a nationwide cohort. Patients and Methods All ACL reconstructions, primary and revision, that were recorded in the Swedish Knee Ligament Register (SKLR) between 2006 and 2013 were linked with data from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. The incidence of VTE was determined by entries between the day of surgery until 90 days postoperatively based on diagnosis codes and the prescription of anticoagulants. Risk factors, outcome, and the use of thromboprophylaxis were analyzed. Descriptive statistics with multivariate analysis were used to describe the findings. Results The cohort consisted of 26 014 primary and revision ACL reconstructions. There were 89 deep venous thromboses (DVTs) and 12 pulmonary emboli (PEs) with a total of 95 VTEs (0.4 %). Six patients with a PE had a simultaneous DVT. The only independent risk factor for VTE was age greater than or equal to 40 years (odds ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval 1.45 to 3.70; p < 0.001). Thromboprophylaxis was prescribed to 9461 patients (36%) and was equally distributed between those with and those without a VTE (37.9% vs 36.4%). All patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) one and two years postoperatively were significantly lower in those with VTE. Conclusion The incidence of VTE following ACL reconstruction is 0.4%, and the only significant risk factor is age. Patients with VTE had worse postoperative clinical outcome than patients without VTE. We recommend against the routine use of thromboprophylaxis, but it should be considered in older patients.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (7_suppl5) ◽  
pp. 2325967119S0035
Author(s):  
Hytham S. Salem ◽  
Laura J. Huston ◽  
Alex Zajichek ◽  
Michelle Lora Wolcott ◽  
Eric C. McCarty ◽  
...  

Objectives: The success rate of meniscal repair is known to increase with concurrent anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. However, the influence of ACL graft choice has not been described. The current study examines the effect of ACL graft choice on the outcome of meniscal repair performed in conjunction with ACL reconstruction (ACLR). Methods: Patients who underwent meniscal repair with concurrent primary ACLR were identified from a longitudinal, prospective cohort. Patient demographics and subjective outcome measures including the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC), Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), and Marx activity rating scale were collected preoperatively. Arthroscopic assessment of meniscal tear characteristics and associated repair technique were recorded intraoperatively. Patients with subsequent repair failure, defined as any subsequent surgical procedure addressing the meniscus repaired at index surgery, were identified and operative notes were obtained in order to accurately classify pathology and treatment. A logistic regression model was built to assess the association of patient specific factors, ACL graft, baseline Marx activity level and meniscal tear laterality with the occurrence of repair failure at 6-year follow-up. Results: A total of 646 patients underwent ACLR with concurrent meniscal repair. Bone-patellar tendon-bone (BTB) and soft tissue (ST) autograft were used in 55.7% and 33.9% of cases, respectively, while allografts were utilized in the remaining cases. Table 1 summarizes the univariate analysis of each baseline variable. A total of 101 patients (15.6%) required subsequent surgery on the meniscus repaired at index surgery, including 89 meniscectomies (87 partial, 2 subtotal), 11 revision meniscal repairs, and 1 meniscus allograft transplantation. No statistically significant difference in meniscal repair failure rate was observed based on patient age, sex, BMI or smoking status. The odds of meniscal repair failure within 6 years of surgery for patients with only a lateral meniscal repair are 68% less than those with only a medial meniscal repair (CI: 41%, 83%; p<0.001). There is a statistically significant relationship between baseline Marx activity and the risk of subsequent meniscal repair, though it is nonlinear—patients with low or high baseline activity are at the highest risk of meniscal repair failure (CI: 1.05,1.31; p=0.004, Figure 1). The estimated odds of meniscal repair failure for BTB allograft, ST allograft, and ST autograft were 2.78 (CI: 0.84,9.19; p=0.09), 2.29 (CI: 0.97,5.45; p=0.06), and 1.42 (CI:0.87,2.32; p=0.16) times that of BTB autograft, respectively, although none proved statistically significant. Meniscal repair failure is associated with significantly lower 6-year scores for all KOOS components and the IKDC (p<0.001). However, there was no significant difference in MARX activity at 6-years (p=0.27). Conclusion: In the setting of primary ACLR, the risk of meniscal repair failure is increased with medial versus lateral meniscal repair. Patients with low or high baseline activity levels are also at an increased risk. ACL graft choice seems to have an effect on meniscal repair failure that approaches but does not reach statistical significance. A larger sample size may be required to accept the null hypothesis. [Table: see text][Figure: see text]


2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 2085-2091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Samuelsson ◽  
Robert A. Magnussen ◽  
Eduard Alentorn-Geli ◽  
Ferid Krupic ◽  
Kurt P. Spindler ◽  
...  

Background: It is not clear whether Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) results will be different 1 or 2 years after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. Purpose: To investigate within individual patients enrolled in the Swedish National Knee Ligament Register whether there is equivalence between KOOS at 1 and 2 years after primary ACL reconstruction. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: This cohort study was based on data from the Swedish National Knee Ligament Register during the period January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2013. The longitudinal KOOS values for each individual at the 1- and 2-year follow-up evaluations were assessed through the two one-sided test (TOST) procedure with an acceptance criterion of 4. Subset analysis was performed with patients classified by sex, age, graft type, and type of injury (meniscal and/or cartilage injury). Results: A total of 23,952 patients were eligible for analysis after exclusion criteria were applied (10,116 women, 42.2%; 13,836 men, 57.8%). The largest age group was between 16 and 20 years of age (n = 6599; 27.6%). The most common ACL graft was hamstring tendon (n = 22,504; 94.0%), of which the combination of semitendinosus and gracilis was the most common. A total of 7119 patients reported on the KOOS Pain domain at both 1- and 2-year follow-ups, with a mean difference of 0.21 (13.1 SD, 0.16 SE [90% CI, −0.05 to 0.46], P < .001). The same results were found for the other KOOS subscales: symptoms (mean difference −0.54, 14.1 SD, 0.17 SE [90% CI, −0.81 to −0.26], P < .001), activities of daily living (mean difference 0.45, 10.8 SD, 0.13 SE [90% CI, 0.24 to 0.66], P < .001), sports and recreation (mean difference −0.35, 22.7 SD, 0.27 SE [90% CI, −0.79 to 0.09], P < .001), quality of life (mean difference −0.92, 20.0 SD, 0.24 SE [90% CI, −1.31 to −0.53], P < .001), and the combined KOOS-4 score (mean difference −0.41, 14.5 SD, 0.17 SE [90% CI, −0.70 to −0.13], P < .001). Analyses within specific subsets of patients showed equivalent results between the 2 follow-up evaluations. Conclusion: Equivalent results within patients were found in KOOS values at 1- and 2-year follow-ups after ACL reconstruction. The finding was consistent across all KOOS subscales and for all evaluated subsets of patients. This result implies that there is no additional value in capturing both 1- and 2-year KOOS outcomes after ACL reconstruction. However, these findings of equivalence at 1- and 2-year endpoints do not alleviate the need for longer follow-up periods.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 2325967118S0000
Author(s):  
Alexander R. Vap ◽  
Robert F. LaPrade ◽  
Lars Engebretsen

Objectives: The Norwegian Ligament Registry (NKLR) provides an opportunity for quality surveillance and research. Intraoperative findings and outcome after revision anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (RACLR) is not as well studied as after primary ACL reconstruction. There were two objectives of this study. First, to evaluate the Norwegian Knee Ligament Registry (NKLR) for the occurrence, failure rate, graft choice, patient demographic profile (gender, age, body mass index), sport at time of injury and associated pathology (cartilage injuries, meniscal tears, other ligament injuries) for revision anterior cruciate ligament reconstructions (RACLR). Second, to match compare RACLR patients to primary ACL reconstructions in order to define possible predictors for those patients who will require RACLR. Methods: All patients identified in the NKLR from June 2004 until September 2016 that did not undergo cartilage restoration, meniscal transplant nor had a documented fracture at the primary reconstruction were included in the study. Revision rates at 1, 2 and 5 years were estimated with Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the estimated risk of RACLR based upon demographic and associated pathology was estimated with Cox regression analysis. Results: 784 patients with an average age of 25.6 years (25.0-26.3) met the inclusion and exclusion criteria with 53.1% being male. 62.1% of revisions were performed with bone patellar bone (BPTB) autograft while 23% used hamstring autograft. Associated injuries of the menisci, cartilage, and other ligaments and the sport at the time of injury are listed (Table 1). 12.9% of RACLR patients went on to have a Re-revision ACLR at 5 years postop (Figure 1). Match comparisons of primary ACLR patients with RACLR demonstrated no significant difference in occurrence based upon age (<20, 20-30, and >30 years), graft choice (BPTB, Hamstring, Allograft, Bone Quadriceps Tendon (BQT)), cartilage injury (No injury, ICRS 1-2, ICRS 3-4), meniscal Injury, associated ligament injury, sport at time of injury or Body Mass Index (BMI). Conclusion: Based upon review of a large ligament reconstruction registry, one can expect that less than 13% of patients undergo a Re-revision ALCR following failure of a RALCR at 5 years. Match comparison of primary ACLR versus RACLR demonstrated no significant predictor of RACLR based upon age, graft choice, cartilage injury, meniscal injury, associated ligament injury, sport or BMI.


2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 281-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujay K Dheerendra ◽  
Wasim S Khan ◽  
Rohit Singhal ◽  
Deepak G Shivarathre ◽  
Ravi Pydisetty ◽  
...  

The graft choice for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction continues to be controversial. There are several options available for the treating surgeon, including Bone Patellar Tendon Bone (BPTB) grafts, Hamstring tendon (HT) grafts, allografts and synthetic grafts. Within the last decade there have been several comparative trials and meta-analysis, which have failed to provide an answer with regards to the best graft available. The aim of this review is to understand the current concepts in graft choices for ACL reconstruction.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (7_suppl5) ◽  
pp. 2325967119S0028
Author(s):  
Mars Group ◽  
Rick W. Wright

Objectives: Most surgeons believe that graft choice for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is an important factor related to outcome. The purpose of this study was to determine if revision ACL graft choice predicts outcomes related to sports function, activity level, OA symptoms, graft re-rupture, and reoperation at six years following revision reconstruction. We hypothesized that autograft use would result in increased sports function, increased activity level, and decreased OA symptoms (as measured by validated patient reported outcome instruments). Additionally, we hypothesized that autograft use would result in decreased graft failure and reoperation rate 6 years following revision ACL reconstruction. Methods: Revision ACL reconstruction patients were identified and prospectively enrolled by 83 surgeons over 52 sites. Data collected included baseline demographics, surgical technique and pathology, and a series of validated patient reported outcome instruments (IKDC, KOOS, WOMAC, and Marx activity rating score). Patients were followed up for 6 years, and asked to complete the identical set of outcome instruments. Incidence of additional surgery and re-operation due to graft failure were also recorded. Multivariate regression models were used to determine the predictors (risk factors) of IKDC, KOOS, WOMAC, Marx scores, graft re-rupture, and re-operation rate at 6 years following revision surgery. Results: 1234 patients were successfully enrolled with 716 (58%) males. Median age was 26. In 87% this was their first revision. 367 (30%) were undergoing revision by the surgeon that had performed the previous reconstruction. 598 (48%) underwent revision reconstruction utilizing an autograft, 599 (49%) allograft, and 37 (3%) both autograft and allograft. Median time since their last ACL reconstruction was 3.4 years. Questionnaire follow-up was obtained on 810 subjects (65%), while phone follow-up was obtained on 949 subjects (76%). The IKDC, KOOS, and WOMAC scores (with the exception of the WOMAC stiffness subscale) all significantly improved at the 6-year follow-up time point (p<0.001). Contrary to the IKDC, KOOS, and WOMAC scores, the 6-year MARX activity scale demonstrated a significant decrease from the initial score at enrollment (p<0.001). Graft choice proved to be a significant predictor of 6-year Marx activity level scores (p=0.005). Specifically, the use of an autograft for revision reconstruction predicted improved activity levels [Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.14, 2.04]. Graft choice proved to be a significant predictor of 6-year IKDC scores (p=0.018), in that soft tissue grafts predicted higher 6-year IKDC scores [OR = 1.62; 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.09, 2.414]. For the KOOS subscales, graft choice did not predict outcome score. Graft re-rupture was reported in 55/949 (5.8%) of patients by their 6-year follow-up: 37 allografts, 16 autografts, and 2 allograft + autograft. Use of an autograft for revision resulted in patients 6.04 times less likely to sustain a subsequent graft rupture than if an allograft was utilized (p=0.009; 95% CI=1.57, 23.2). Conclusion: Improved sports function and patient reported outcome measures are obtained when an autograft is utilized. Additionally, autograft type shows a decreased risk in graft re-rupture at six years follow-up. Surgeon education regarding the findings in this study can result in potentially improved revision ACLR results for our patients.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Hyun Ahn ◽  
Nilay A. Patel ◽  
Charles C. Lin ◽  
Thay Q. Lee

AbstractResidual knee instability and low rates of return to previous sport are major concerns after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. To improve outcomes, surgical methods, such as the anatomical single-bundle technique or the double-bundle technique, were developed. However, these reconstruction techniques failed to adequately overcome these problems, and, therefore, new potential answers continue to be of great interest. Based on recent anatomical and biomechanical studies emphasizing the role of the anterolateral ligament (ALL) in rotational stability, novel surgical methods including ALL reconstruction and anterolateral tenodesis have been introduced with the possibility of resolving residual instability after ACL reconstruction. However, there is still little consensus on many aspects of the ALL, including: several anatomical issues, appropriate indications for ALL surgery, and the optimal surgical method and graft choice for reconstruction surgery. Therefore, further studies are necessary to advance our knowledge of the ALL and its contribution to knee stability.


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