Oil price volatility and the US stock market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sajjadur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Us

OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND STOCK MARKET BEHAVIOR IN A RESOURCE-DOMINANT ECONOMY: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
MOLDIR MUKAN ◽  
YESSENGALI OSKENBAYEV ◽  
NIKI NADERI ◽  
YERGALI DOSMAGAMBET
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

During the past 10 years, the oil market has been very unpredictable and volatile, which created uneasy conditions for market participants. The remedy of increasing oil prices is considered as a positive factor for the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan as an oil-exporting country. Using structural decomposition of vector autoregression (VAR), this study aims to examine how the whole financial system in Kazakhstan is depending on oil prices. The results suggest that the strongest factor affecting the stock index is aggregate demand, and the impact of oil production shocks on the equity market is, on average, insignificant. Such shocks can be discounted while a fall in oil prices affects financial conditions as a whole, damaging the solvency of Kazakhstan, an oil-exporting country. With the positive shock of aggregate demand, the stock market index tends to rise. There is also an effect of oil price volatility on changes in currency value, which also influences the financial situation of the country. Moreover, oil-exporting countries such as Kazakhstan can secure and support their economies with the help of “stable aggregate demand”. The focus on Kazakhstan as one of the oil-producing countries is interesting for at least two reasons. Importantly, oil-exporting countries supply oil to really strong countries concentrating on manufacturing and other industries. Besides, this study provides useful insights for countries with similar economic conditions, including similar stock market development.

Modeling and forecasting oil price risk: the role of implied volatility index

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 1003-1016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anupam Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Base Line ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
The Us

Purpose While numerous empirical studies have tried to model and forecast the oil price volatility over the years, such attempts using the crude oil volatility index (OVX) rarely exist. In order to conceal this void, the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether including OVX in the realized volatility (RV) models improve the accuracy of predictions. Design/methodology/approach At the empirical stage, the authors employ several measures to frame the RV of crude oil futures returns. In particular, the authors use three different range-based RV estimators recommended by Parkinson (1980), Rogers and Satchell (1991) and Alizadeh et al. (2002), respectively. Findings The findings reveal that the information content of crude OVX helps to provide more accurate volatility predictions in comparison to the base-line RV model which contains only historical oil volatilities. Besides, the forecast encompassing test further suggests that the modified RV model (when OVX is introduced in the base-line RV model) forecast encompasses the conventional RV forecast in majority of the cases. Practical implications Since forecasting oil price volatility plays a vital role in portfolio optimization, derivatives pricing, optimum asset allocation decisions and risk management, the findings of this study thus carry important implications for energy economists, investors and policymakers. Originality/value This paper adds to the existing literature, since it is one of the initial studies to explore whether OVX is informative about the realized variance of the US oil market returns. The findings recommend that the information content of oil implied volatilities should be taken into account when modeling the US oil market volatility. In addition, range-based measures should be utilized while estimating the RV.

Further insights into the oil and equity market relationship

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olfa Belhassine ◽  
Amira Ben Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to assess the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of oil price volatility on the Eurozone’s supersector returns, with a particular emphasis on the impact of the subprime crisis and the euro debt crisis (EDC) on this relationship. Design/methodology/approach Empirical data consist of daily observations of the 19 EURO STOXX supersector indices and the Brent crude oil price index for the period January 2001 to August 2015. This paper uses a non-linear multifactor market model. This model accounts for heteroscedasticity and breakpoints that are identified by the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) tests. Findings The results show that supersector returns are sensitive to oil price shocks. However, in most cases, their responsiveness to oil price volatility is not significant. The relationship between oil price shocks and supersector returns changes through time and depends on the sector. Financial turbulence affects the oil-stock market nexus. In most cases, the subprime crisis has had a positive impact on the oil-stock market relationship, whereas the EDC has had an overall negative effect. Before the subprime crisis, there is an evidence of asymmetric effects for some supersectors. Meanwhile, for most sectors, the asymmetric effects disappear after 2008. Originality/value The study improves understanding of the interaction between oil price risk and the Eurozone sector indices returns. Furthermore, it enables global investors to manage the risk inherent to the portfolio managers’ positions.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adedoyin I. Lawal ◽  
Russel O. C Somoye ◽  
Abiola A. Babajide
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

scholarly journals Oil Price Volatility and Stock Market Returns in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Ikponmwosa Michael Igbinovia
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Long Run

The study examines the reaction of the Nigerian stock market to fluctuations in the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. Using time series data sourced from OPEC website and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, we investigate the effect of oil price volatility on stock market returns in Nigeria during the period 1981 to 2017. Co-integration test established the long run relationship between variables, while, the Error Correction Model (ECM) and Pair-Wise Granger Causality test were used to ascertain the short run dynamics and the direction of causality between the variables of interest. The findings reveal among other things that Oil Price Volatility (OPV) has a non-significant positive effect on Stock Market Return (SMR) both in the short and long run period.  Exchange Rate (EXR) and Interest rate (INT) were significant variables that influence stock market return in Nigeria during the period under review. 

scholarly journals Modeling Asymmetric Volatility In Oil Prices

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Aun Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asymmetric Garch

<p>Recent volatility in crude oil prices has affected economies around the world, especially the US economy, which is the largest consumer of oil. This paper focuses on how shocks to volatility of crude oil prices may affect future oil prices. The paper uses daily crude oil price data for the past 10 years to test and model the oil price volatility by fitting different variations of GARCH including a univariate asymmetric GARCH model to the series. Tests show high persistence and asymmetric behavior in oil price volatility, and reveal that negative and positive news have a different impact on oil price volatility. These results will help interested observers better understanding of the energy markets and has important consequences for the overall economy.</p>

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