Importância dos modelos de simulação de culturas diante os impactos das alterações climáticas sobre a produção agrícola - Revisão

O efeito climático é o principal responsável pelas oscilações no rendimento produtivo. Logo, é esperado que as mudanças do clima promovam alterações na agricultura, comprometam a sustentabilidade e a segurança alimentar, especialmente, em áreas semiáridas. O entendimento da amplitude desses fatores e suas consequências no rendimento agrícola mediante os diferentes cenários climáticos, regionais e tecnológicos são fundamentais nas tomadas de decisões. Para as análises desses diversos cenários, os modelos de simulação de culturas se caracterizam como ferramentas funcionais e com eficientes performances na estimativa dos níveis de produtividades, desde que devidamente calibrados e validados com dados consistentes e representativos. Dentre os modelos de simulação podemos destacar: AquaCrop - FAO, ZAE - FAO, CROPGRO e Apsim como aqueles de maiores aplicabilidades nas culturas agrícolas, sendo utilizados de maneira recorrente em diversos estudos para fins do conhecimento das lacunas de produtividade agrícola, ou “Yield Gap”. Esta revisão analisou os impactos das alterações climáticas na agricultura e o levantamento de informações dos principais modelos de simulação de culturas. Mediante síntese das informações levantadas, pode-se evidenciar o eminente impacto das alterações climáticas sobre o cenário agrícola futuro, proporcionando maior vulnerabilidade agrícola. Logo, destaca-se a importância do uso de modelos de simulação de culturas para conhecimento das lacunas de produtividade e potencial produtivo. Contudo, é evidente a necessidade de pesquisas mais detalhadas sobre a aplicabilidade dos modelos em cenários agrícolas diversos e situações climáticas amplas.Palavras-chave: modelos de simulação; sazonalidade climática; práticas resilientes; “yield gap”. Importance of crop simulation models in view of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production – Review A B S T R A C TThe climatic effect is the main responsible for the fluctuations in the productive yield. Therefore, it is expected that climate change will promote changes in agriculture, compromise sustainability and food security, especially in semi-arid areas. Understanding the breadth of these factors and their consequences on agricultural income through different climatic, regional and technological scenarios are fundamental in decision-making. For the analysis of these different scenarios, the crop simulation models are characterized as functional tools and with efficient performances in the estimation of the productivity levels, as long as they are properly calibrated and validated with consistent and representative data. Among the simulation models we can highlight: AquaCrop - FAO, ZAE - FAO, CROPGRO and Apsim as those with the greatest applicability in agricultural crops, being used in a recurring manner in several studies for the purpose of understanding agricultural productivity gaps, or “Yield Gap”. This review analyzed the impacts of climate change on agriculture and the gathering of information on the main crop simulation models. By synthesizing the information collected, it is possible to highlight the imminent impact of climate change on the future agricultural scenario, providing greater agricultural vulnerability. Therefore, the importance of using crop simulation models to understand the gaps in productivity and productive potential is highlighted. However, there is a clear need for more detailed research on the applicability of models in diverse agricultural scenarios and broad climatic situations.Keywords: simulation models; climatic seasonality; resilient practices; yield gap.

Foresight for income and employment: What can we learn for agricultural research for development

Challenges related to poverty, hunger, nutrition, health, and the environment are widespread and urgent. One way to stress the urgency of making the right decisions about the future of the global food systems now is to better understand and more clearly articulate the alternative scenarios that food systems face. Developing, synthesizing, and presenting such alternatives to decision makers in a clear way is the ultimate goal of e CGIAR Foresight team.No single source of information focuses regularly and systematically on the future of food and agriculture, and challenges facing developing countries. Our work aims to fill that gap with a focus on agricultural income and employment.group systematically collects information about past, on-going and planned foresight activities across CGIAR centers and their partners, spanning the global agricultural research for development arenaWe present a comprehensive overview and synthesis of the results of relevant foresight research, which through the tagging with metadata allows for customized investigations in greater detail. The cross-cutting nature of this work allows for a more comprehensive picture and assessments of possible complementarities/trade-offs.Potential users of this report and associated activities include CGIAR science leaders and scientists as well as the broader research community, national and international development partners, national governments and research organizations, funders, and the private sector.The approach developed by the CGIAR foresight group is used to make foresight study results accessible across organizations and domains in order to aid policy and decision makers for strategic planning. The approach allows visualization of both the available information across multiple entry points as well as the identification of critical knowledge gaps.

YOUNG WOMEN FARMERS IN THE SCOPE OF THE YOUNG FARMERS GRANT SUPPORT PROJECT: THE CASE OF KIRIKKALE PROVINCE IN TURKIYE

This study aimed to reveal the situation of young women farmers (YWFs) who benefited from cattle farming support for three years in Kırıkkale, one of the provinces where the study was carried out. In Kırıkkale province, 397 young farmers were supported and 250 of them were YWFs. The projects with the highest grant support were cattle farming projects, and they constituted 62.22% of the projects (247 units). The rate of YWF who benefited from cattle farming support for three years was higher than young men farmers (YMF) and was determined as 59.51%. In this study, face-to-face survey questionnaires were filled in the 2020 year with 36 YWFs and 36 YMFs. As a result of the study, it was determined that YMFs have more experience in cattle breeding than YWFs. It is seen that especially YWFs are married and their families have high non-agricultural income; their husbands support especially YWFs at the application stage. 52.78% of YWFs and 69.44% of YMFs stated that they want to expand their farms with the given support. As a result of the study, it was determined that there was a significant increase in the number of animals after the given support to the young farmers, and it was revealed that the most important problem of the young farmers was that they had financial difficulties in the supply of production inputs. It is seen that this project, which has both social and economic aspects, encourages YWFs to take more part in agricultural activities. However, it is important to determine more effective criteria at the selection stage, follow up and supervise the beneficiaries of the incentives both during and after the project, and support the successful ones to grow their farms. Keywords: Young women farmers, young farmers project support, rural development, kırıkkale-Turkiye.

ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP INCOME OF RICE FARMERS (Oryza Sativa) IN AGRICULTURAL AND NON-AGRICULTURAL SECTORS IN VARIOUS LAND AREA IN SUB-DISTRICT AIKMEL KABUPATEN LOMBOK TIMUR

Rice commodity in Aikmel sub-district is one of the main commodities with an area of ​​9,392 Ha of lowland rice farming and geographically. Non-agricultural activities in rural areas began to develop in response to insufficient income from the agricultural sector. Many rural residents engage in non-agricultural activities when the agricultural sector is free. This is what causes a large number of residents to work from the non-agricultural sector, related to employment and income opportunities. Seeing this condition, it is felt that research needs to be done. This study aims to look at the income of paddy rice farming, non-farming and the relationship between lowland rice farming income and non-farming income on various land areas. The method in this study, namely descriptive, data collection by survey technique, determining the number of samples were 30 people was carried out by quota sampling and taking farmers in each village was carried out by proportional random sampling and determination of villages as samples was carried out by purposive sampling. The Results of the study explain: 1) the average total income of lowland rice farming farmers is Rp. 1.207.412/LLG or equivalent to Rp. 5.219.359/Ha. 2) In this study, farmers receive an average non-farming income of rice farmers of Rp. 8,000,000.- planting season 3). Relationship analysis relationship obtained correlation coefficient value of 0,3786 Because it has a positive result with a correlation coefficient value of 0,3786, the larger the land area, the greater the contribution of agricultural sector income to total non-agricultural income.

Determinants of Income Diversification Strategies among Agricultural Households in the Philippines using National Survey Data

Household income diversification is a critical pathway to improve the living standard of agricultural households. It is the process by which households actively seek to increase the number of income-generating activities. This study sought to describe the prevalence and patterns of income diversification among agricultural households and to identify the factors related to the degree of income diversification. The study applied a quantitative research design using a cross-sectional survey from the Philippine Statistics Authority. The fractional response regression model was used to determine the factors affecting income diversification. Results revealed that most of the household samples have two income sources. Most come from agricultural labor, crop farming, and gardening. Factors related to income diversification are sex, age, education, family size, being married, agricultural income, access to credit, cash support, access to electricity and water, access to information and communication, and vehicle ownership.

Agro-Pastoralists’ Perception of Climate Change and Adaptation in the Qilian Mountains, China

Global climate change affects all aspects of human society, especially agricultural and animal husbandry production. Northwest China has detrimentally affected by the climatic variations due to its high exposure to extreme climatic events. A number of studies have reported on agro-pastoralists' perceptions, adaptation and mitigation of climate change, but the current knowledge of agro-pastoralists' perceptions of climate change in China is insufficient. To fill this research gap, this study aims to investigate the cognition level of agro-pastoralists in Northwest China on climate change and related factors. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire based on household surveys of 554 study participants in four counties in Gansu Province, China. Raw data were collected using stratified random sampling. A probit model was used to analyze the respondents' understanding of climate change and its related socio-economic and demographic variables. Our results show that more than 70% of agro-pastoralists are perception of the changes of temperature and precipitation. Socioeconomic and demographic variables such as gender, farming experience, education level, cultivated land size, agricultural income, livestock, village cadre experience, access to weather information of agro-pastoralists are pertinently related to agro-pastoralists' awareness of climate change. Farming experience, education level, household size, grassland size, agricultural income, association membership, village cadre experience has a high impact on agro-pastoralists' adaptation to climate change. The results of this study will help guide government agencies and decision makers, and help arid and semi-arid areas to build sustainable adaptation measures under the framework of climate change.

“Green” Transformation of the Common Agricultural Policy and Its Impact on Farm Income Disparities

Taking into account the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), it is wondered to what extent the “green” transformation of this policy and the accompanying change in the distribution of direct payments between farms contributed to the elimination of disproportions in agricultural income. The aim of the study was to investigate the changes in the proclaimed concepts related to the development of the EU agricultural sector in terms of their “green” transformation, and to assess the impact of “green” CAP payments on income inequalities between farms. The research was conducted based on the data representative for Polish commercial farms for the years 2004–2019, covering three financial perspectives of the agricultural policy. The methods of counterfactual modelling and assessment of income inequality were used in the study. The analyses showed that the evolution of the CAP priorities, and hence instruments, towards the pro-environmental (or, more broadly, towards sustainability) have so far had a rather negative impact on the income of Polish farms. In its current form, the support dedicated to environmental and climate protection did not fully compensate farmers for income losses resulting from the use of pro-environmental agricultural practices. Moreover, “green” CAP payments did not play a significant role in shaping income inequalities. Therefore, we can conclude that the CAP instruments do not contribute sufficiently to sustainable development (economic, social, and environmental), because they do not support/motivate farmers to change their production standards.

Changing Farmers' Perception towards Sustainable Horticulture: A Case Study of Extension Education in Farming Community in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Applying sustainable horticulture as an innovation in The Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) Indonesia can be a commendable example in agricultural extension education. Previous research has revealed that understanding farmers' perceptions of innovation is essential for appropriate interventions to change their behavior. In DIY, the surveys were conducted in 2016 with 257 males and 93 females of farmers groups member from 21 villages in Sleman, Bantul, and Kulonprogo Regency. The objective of the survey was to determine the effects of farmer's internal factors on the perception of ecological, social economy, and ethical (ESE) urgency as a component of sustainable horticulture practices. The findings from the ecological, social, and ethical dimensions among the farming community in DIY indicated that, directly and indirectly, the farmers can acknowledge and practice sustainable horticulture. However, this was altering several factors, most notably, motivation and the prospect of increased income. The important thing in extension work was motivation, and a major motivating factor was the possibility of increased agricultural income. This study suggests that extension education of achieving horticultural sustainability in DIY should be based on the motivation of farmers and thoughtfulness of their basic needs especially needs to have higher income.

Pathways to Improving Nutrition among Upland Farmers through Nutrition-Sensitive Agriculture Interventions: A Case from Northern Laos

While there is an increased awareness of the role of nutrition-sensitive agriculture (NSA) interventions on nutrition, the studies that investigate holistic pathways from interventions to nutrition outcomes are inadequate. We aimed to understand these pathways to improved nutrition from the Enhancing Nutrition of Upland Farming Families (ENUFF) Project implemented in northern Laos. We applied an embedded case study design by recruiting 101 participants representing implementers, school and private sector representatives, and beneficiaries, of which 34 participated in interviews and 68 participated in 11 FGDs. This was supplemented by a desk review of project documents. We analyzed the data using a directed content analysis across five pathways using a published framework on impact pathways from NSA interventions to nutrition outcomes. The project contributed to nutrition mainly through three core pathways-food production, nutrition and WASH-related knowledge, and agricultural income, supported by strengthening local institutions within the project’s scope. While it is evident that the project contributed to empowering women by saving their time and increasing income, further study is needed to investigate the translation of these aspects to nutrition-related practices. We also suggest the need to sustain the capacity of local institutions and their engagement beyond the project cycle. To enhance the effectiveness of NSA interventions on nutrition, there is a need to design and implement intervention package with multiple pathways and tailored strategies based on nutrition outcomes, the envisaged pathways, geographical context, and factors affecting these.