Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2855-2885 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M. Murphy ◽  
Ben B. B. Booth ◽  
Chris A. Boulton ◽  
Robin T. Clark ◽  
Glen R. Harris ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaoping Wang ◽  
Jiafu Mao ◽  
Mingzhou Jin ◽  
Forrest M. Hoffman ◽  
Xiaoying Shi ◽  
...  

Abstract. Soil moisture (SM) datasets are critical to understanding the global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles and benefit extensive societal applications. However, individual sources of SM data (e.g., in situ and satellite observations, reanalysis, offline land surface model simulations, Earth system model simulations) have source-specific limitations and biases related to the spatiotemporal continuity, resolutions, and modeling/retrieval assumptions. Here, we developed seven global, gap-free, long-term (1970–2016), multi-layer (0–10, 10–30, 30–50, and 50–100 cm) SM products at monthly 0.5° resolution (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13661312.v1) by synthesizing a wide range of SM datasets using three statistical methods (unweighted averaging, optimal linear combination, and emergent constraint). The merged products outperformed their source datasets when evaluated with in situ observations and the latest gridded datasets that did not enter merging because of insufficient spatial, temporal, or soil layer coverage. Assessed against in situ observations, the global mean bias of the synthesized SM data ranged from −0.044 to 0.033 m3/m3, root mean squared error from 0.076 to 0.104 m3/m3, and Pearson correlation from 0.35 to 0.67. The merged SM datasets also showed the ability to capture historical large-scale drought events and physically plausible global sensitivities to observed meteorological factors. Three of the new SM products, produced by applying any of the three merging methods onto the source datasets excluding the Earth system models, were finally recommended for future applications because of their better performances than the Earth system model–dependent merged estimates. Despite uncertainties in the raw SM datasets and fusion methods, these hybrid products create added value over existing SM datasets because of the performance improvement and harmonized spatial, temporal, and vertical coverages, and they provide a new foundation for scientific investigation and resource management.


Eos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilbert Weijer ◽  
Forrest Hoffman ◽  
Paul Ullrich ◽  
Michael Wehner ◽  
Jialin Liu

Climate scientists collaborated in a nationwide event to analyze and compare archived Earth system model simulations and to generate input for the IPCC's upcoming climate change report.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Chi Wang ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Chao-An Chen ◽  
Wan-Ling Tseng ◽  
Pei-Chun Hsu ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 80 ◽  
pp. 1589-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Milroy ◽  
Allison H. Baker ◽  
Dorit M. Hammerling ◽  
John M. Dennis ◽  
Sheri A. Mickelson ◽  
...  

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