Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1801-1821 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis-Philippe Caron ◽  
Mathieu Boudreault ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyère
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals New evidence for a relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and African dust outbreaks

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amato T. Evan ◽  
Jason Dunion ◽  
Jonathan A. Foley ◽  
Andrew K. Heidinger ◽  
Christopher S. Velden
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
African Dust ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals Dynamical Simulations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Using Observed Low-Frequency SST Oscillation Imposed on CMIP5 Model RCP4.5 SST Projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 8055-8069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy E. LaRow ◽  
Lydia Stefanova ◽  
Chana Seitz
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract The effects on early and late twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics resulting from imposing the patterns of maximum/minimum phases of the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) onto projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined using a 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. By imposing the observed maximum positive and negative phases of the AMO onto two CMIP5 SST projections from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, this study places bounds on future North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the early (2020–39) and late (2080–99) twenty-first century. Averaging over both time periods and both AMO phases, the mean named tropical cyclones (NTCs) count increases by 35% when compared to simulations using observed SSTs from 1982 to 2009. The positive AMO simulations produce approximately a 68% increase in mean NTC count, while the negative AMO simulations are statistically indistinguishable from the mean NTC count determined from the 1995–2009 simulations—a period of observed positive AMO phase. Examination of the tropical cyclone track densities shows a statistically significant increase in the tracks along the East Coast of the United States in the future simulations compared to the models’ 1982–2009 climate simulations. The increase occurs regardless of AMO phase, although the negative phase produces higher track densities. The maximum wind speeds increase by 6%, in agreement with other climate change studies. Finally, the NTC-related precipitation is found to increase (approximately by 13%) compared to the 1982–2009 simulations.

Dominant Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Decadal Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 354-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity

scholarly journals Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 2288-2301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Doris Folini ◽  
Sean Davis ◽  
Chiara Cagnazzo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone potential intensity over this period. Quantitative uncertainties in the magnitude of the cooling are important, but a broad range of observations supports some cooling. Downscalings of the output of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) that are driven by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover produce little if any increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics over the past two decades, even though observed variability before roughly 1970 is well simulated by some of the models. Part of this shortcoming is traced to the failure of the AGCMs examined to reproduce the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past few decades. The authors caution against using sea surface temperature or proxies based on it to make projections of tropical cyclone activity as there can be significant contributions from other variables such as the outflow temperature. The proposed mechanisms of TTL cooling (e.g., ozone depletion and stratospheric circulation changes) are reviewed, and the need for improved representations of these processes in global models in order to improve projections of future tropical cyclone activity is emphasized.

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