scholarly journals Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Sang-Ki Lee ◽  
David B. Enfield
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

The Track Integrated Kinetic Energy of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (7) ◽  
pp. 2383-2389 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Misra ◽  
S. DiNapoli ◽  
M. Powell
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract In this paper the concept of track integrated kinetic energy (TIKE) is introduced as a measure of seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and applied to seasonal variability in the Atlantic. It is similar in concept to the more commonly used accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) with an important difference that in TIKE the integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is accumulated for the life span of the Atlantic tropical cyclone. The IKE is, however, computed by volume integrating the 10-m level sustained winds of tropical strength or higher quadrant by quadrant, while ACE uses the maximum sustained winds only without accounting for the structure of the storm. In effect TIKE accounts for the intensity, duration, and size of the tropical cyclones. In this research, the authors have examined the seasonality and the interannual variations of the seasonal Atlantic TIKE over a period of 22 yr from 1990 to 2011. It is found that the Atlantic TIKE climatologically peaks in the month of September and the frequency of storms with the largest TIKE are highest in the eastern tropical Atlantic. The interannual variations of the Atlantic TIKE reveal that it is likely influenced by SST variations in the equatorial Pacific and in the Atlantic Oceans. The SST variations in the central equatorial Pacific are negatively correlated with the contemporaneous seasonal (June–November) TIKE. The size of the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) is positively correlated with seasonal TIKE.

scholarly journals New evidence for a relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and African dust outbreaks

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amato T. Evan ◽  
Jason Dunion ◽  
Jonathan A. Foley ◽  
Andrew K. Heidinger ◽  
Christopher S. Velden
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
African Dust ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals Dynamical Simulations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Using Observed Low-Frequency SST Oscillation Imposed on CMIP5 Model RCP4.5 SST Projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 8055-8069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy E. LaRow ◽  
Lydia Stefanova ◽  
Chana Seitz
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract The effects on early and late twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics resulting from imposing the patterns of maximum/minimum phases of the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) onto projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined using a 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. By imposing the observed maximum positive and negative phases of the AMO onto two CMIP5 SST projections from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, this study places bounds on future North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the early (2020–39) and late (2080–99) twenty-first century. Averaging over both time periods and both AMO phases, the mean named tropical cyclones (NTCs) count increases by 35% when compared to simulations using observed SSTs from 1982 to 2009. The positive AMO simulations produce approximately a 68% increase in mean NTC count, while the negative AMO simulations are statistically indistinguishable from the mean NTC count determined from the 1995–2009 simulations—a period of observed positive AMO phase. Examination of the tropical cyclone track densities shows a statistically significant increase in the tracks along the East Coast of the United States in the future simulations compared to the models’ 1982–2009 climate simulations. The increase occurs regardless of AMO phase, although the negative phase produces higher track densities. The maximum wind speeds increase by 6%, in agreement with other climate change studies. Finally, the NTC-related precipitation is found to increase (approximately by 13%) compared to the 1982–2009 simulations.

Dominant Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Decadal Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 354-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity

scholarly journals Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 2288-2301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Doris Folini ◽  
Sean Davis ◽  
Chiara Cagnazzo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone potential intensity over this period. Quantitative uncertainties in the magnitude of the cooling are important, but a broad range of observations supports some cooling. Downscalings of the output of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) that are driven by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover produce little if any increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics over the past two decades, even though observed variability before roughly 1970 is well simulated by some of the models. Part of this shortcoming is traced to the failure of the AGCMs examined to reproduce the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past few decades. The authors caution against using sea surface temperature or proxies based on it to make projections of tropical cyclone activity as there can be significant contributions from other variables such as the outflow temperature. The proposed mechanisms of TTL cooling (e.g., ozone depletion and stratospheric circulation changes) are reviewed, and the need for improved representations of these processes in global models in order to improve projections of future tropical cyclone activity is emphasized.

scholarly journals Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made more likely by ocean warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Pfleiderer ◽  
Shruti Nath ◽  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Weather Pattern ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract. Tropical cyclones are among the most damaging and fatal extreme weather events. An increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has been observed, but attribution to global warming remains challenging due to large inter-annual variability and modelling challenges. Here we show that the increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since the 1980s can be robustly ascribed to changes in atmospheric circulation as well as sea surface temperature (SST) increase. Using a novel weather pattern based statistical model, we find that the forced warming trend in Atlantic SSTs over the 1982–2018 period increased the probability of extremely active tropical cyclone seasons by 14 %. Seasonal atmospheric circulation remains the dominant factor explaining both inter-annual variability and the observed increase. Our weather pattern-based statistical decomposition helps to understand the role of atmospheric variability for the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and provides a new perspective on the role of ocean warming.

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