Evaluation of debris flow and landslide hazards using ensemble framework of Bayesian- and tree-based models

Author(s):  
Subodh Chandra Pal ◽  
Rabin Chakrabortty ◽  
Asish Saha ◽  
Saeid Khosrobeigi Bozchaloei ◽  
Quoc Bao Pham ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huilin Bai ◽  
wenkai feng ◽  
Xiaoyu Yi ◽  
Hongyu Fang ◽  
Yiying Wu ◽  
...  

Abstract From June 10th to 13th, 2019, a continuous heavy rainfall occurred in Longchuan County, Guangdong Province, causing many landslide hazards. Among Longchuan County districts, Mibei village is one of the hardest-hit areas and suffered severe losses. In this paper, field investigation, remote sensing image interpretation , and UAV aerial photography were used to investigate and analyze hazard characteristics. Combined with rainfall monitoring data, laboratory and field tests data, and existing research results, the characteristics and failure mechanism of group-occurring landslides in Mibei village were studied. Because of the continuous heavy rainfall, 327 landslides occurred in the study area, mainly distributed in the north of the Mibei river and along the X158 road. The terrain slope of landslide hazards ranged from 35° to 45°, and the slope structure can be divided into two types. Granite residual soil was the main part of landslide mass, and sliding surface developed along with the interface between bedrock and covering layer. The continuous heavy rainfall from June 10th to 13th was the main triggering factor of the disaster. The total precipitation was 281.3 mm, and the rainfall on June 10th was 153.5 mm. The rain led to the continuous increase of volume water content in granite residual soil and completely weathered granite. The shear strength and parameters of the two materials changed differently, and slope stability continued to decrease, and then landslides occurred under terrain conditions and engineering excavation space. Untimely support and unreasonable support measures for the excavation slope exacerbated the disaster. The development degree of debris flows in the study area was very low, and debris flows were shown as the secondary disaster of landslides. The branch gully terrain is the key to transforming the landslide into the debris flow, and a large amount of loose deposits in the main gully will become the potential source of debris flow in the future.


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