Scenario assessment of neodymium recycling in Japan based on substance flow analysis and future demand forecast

With the increasing demand for energy-saving technologies, neodymium-iron-boron magnets have been widely utilized in high-efficiency motors. However, the reserves of neodymium, which is a rare earth element (REE), are limited; thus, a strategy for scaling up the REE supply is highly required. In this study, a scenario assessment was conducted to evaluate the effect of material recycling of neodymium from final product waste. Domestic substance flow analysis of neodymium was conducted by focusing on the waste flow of the final product. Moreover, the demand and waste of neodymium until 2050 were forecasted using various multivariate analysis methods. The results showed that the domestic waste of neodymium was forecasted to be 3866–4217 tons/year by 2050. However, material recycling of neodymium from final product waste may cause an additional increase in production by “circular economy rebound”. Considering that CO2 reduction has also been a global challenge to prevent global warming, the rebound effect was calculated. Therefore, a scenario assessment was conducted to evaluate the influence of this rebound effect by estimating the CO2 reduction. The results of this study are expected to make a significant contribution to the establishment of a new strategy for neodymium recycling.