Carbon Footprint Calculator Customized for Rice Products: Concept and Characterization of Rice Value Chains in Southeast Asia

In this study, we developed user-friendly software (CF-Rice) for calculating the carbon footprints (CF) of rice products. The approach follows the principles of Life Cycle Assessment while incorporating more flexibility for activities specific to rice production. The graphical user interface provides empirical emission and conversion factors obtained from the literature and from primary research studies of rice value chains. CF-Rice also allows the entering of new values for specific processes or practices. Data outputs distinguish among the contributions of individual stages of the value chain as well as different greenhouse gases (GHG), namely, CH4, N2O and CO2. The new tool was then applied to a scenario assessment of rice production in the regional context of Southeast Asia. The CF baseline of a typical rice value chain in the region accounted for a value of around 2300 g CO2e/kgProd. The CF can be reduced by about 27.4% through water-saving practices alone and can further be reduced up to 37.3% through interventions that increase product recovery rates and, thus, reduce food losses. In contrast, straw incorporation into the soil increased the CF by 26.0%. The tool is well suited for impact assessments of advanced practices and technologies of rice value chains.

Scenario assessment of neodymium recycling in Japan based on substance flow analysis and future demand forecast

With the increasing demand for energy-saving technologies, neodymium-iron-boron magnets have been widely utilized in high-efficiency motors. However, the reserves of neodymium, which is a rare earth element (REE), are limited; thus, a strategy for scaling up the REE supply is highly required. In this study, a scenario assessment was conducted to evaluate the effect of material recycling of neodymium from final product waste. Domestic substance flow analysis of neodymium was conducted by focusing on the waste flow of the final product. Moreover, the demand and waste of neodymium until 2050 were forecasted using various multivariate analysis methods. The results showed that the domestic waste of neodymium was forecasted to be 3866–4217 tons/year by 2050. However, material recycling of neodymium from final product waste may cause an additional increase in production by “circular economy rebound”. Considering that CO2 reduction has also been a global challenge to prevent global warming, the rebound effect was calculated. Therefore, a scenario assessment was conducted to evaluate the influence of this rebound effect by estimating the CO2 reduction. The results of this study are expected to make a significant contribution to the establishment of a new strategy for neodymium recycling.

Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

Scenario assessment of fiscal pro-investment expansion in Ukraine

The article identifies the role and place of public investment as one of the significant factors of growth. As a high value of fiscal multiplier, public investment is an effective countercyclical measure to restore economic growth. The goal of the study was to estimate the aftereffect of fiscal pro-investment expansion in Ukraine without increasing the debt burden. The monetary sector should support the increased public investment financed through the domestic government borrowing by expanding the money supply at a rate exceeding the debt growth to minimize the crowding-out effect and support the real sector’s demand for credits. According to the scenario results, the limit of increased public investment in Ukraine compared to the reported data without increased debt burden during the relatively stable 2016?2019 could be 11-19%. The short-term effect of implementing such fiscal pro-investment expansion provided an additional increase in GDP by 1.3-1.8%. Every UAH borrowed by the state and directed to capital investment could add more than 4 UAH of product annually in 2017?2019, which corresponded with the public investment multiplier equal to 1.1. These growth targets may be more significant during COVID-19 crisis, as the fiscal multiplier is usually higher in recessions. Since the indicated growth rates depend on the selected strategic priorities for capital investment in facilities with the highest return, the obtained results assume the development of additional volumes of public investment in the most efficient way providing the expanding of aggregate supply in the longer term.

Citizen-Participatory Scenario Design Methodology with Future Design Approach: A Case Study of Visioning of a Low-Carbon Society in Suita City, Japan

A scenario approach is often used to envision sustainable futures. Several important scenario design factors are identified in the literature, which include the demonstration of deliberation and the participation of stakeholders; however, specific methodologies of scenario design are yet to be established. Accordingly, in this study, we demonstrate a series of workshops involving ordinary citizens for energy visioning in Suita city, Japan, and propose a new citizen-participatory scenario design methodology based on the combination of scenario design and future design approaches. It is shown that the inclusion of future generations in deliberation is effective for creating future visions in a specific context and deriving policy implications. Specifically, by analyzing the deliberation process and the proposed scenarios, it was confirmed that the scenarios proposed by future generations were proactive in terms of paying the costs incurred to facilitate the realization of policies toward achieving a long-term vision. Furthermore, even though the proposals made by the future generations imposed additional burdens for current generations, post-workshop scenario assessment revealed that current generations are supportive of these scenarios. It is concluded that the proposed methodology is effective since it can overcome uncertainties, include holistic scopes, and consider a long-term time horizon.