Abstract
Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 posed a serious threat to human health, economic development, and social stability worldwide, and many countries had taken different interventions to control the deterioration of the epidemic. Although many studies have evaluated the effectiveness of these interventions, there were few reasonable explanations for the practical geographic significance of the model parameters. Our aim was to evaluate the potential of different interventions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic, including discussion about the different time and intensity of implementation, and map parameters of model to the practical application meanings of the special interventions.Methods: In this study, a COVID-19 spread model based on the discrete grid was proposed from perspective of geography. A multi-level grid was introduced to describe the quarantine status and intensity in different spaces, which also combined with the model of medical reception-cured and self-protection, and the spatiotemporal evolution process of early COVID-19 spread was simulated based on the spatial correlation, finally, the effect of interventions was quantitatively analyzed by the dynamic transmission model of COVID-19.Results: Quarantine measure were the most effective interventions, which could effectively reduce the peak value of infection, advance the arrival time of the peak, and shorten the duration of the epidemic, but it only played a role under sufficient intensity; the medical reception-cured and self-protection measure could effectively fatten the infection curve and slowed the spread of the epidemic in the early stage, which could provide more buffer time for the relevant government departments, but the practical effect was not obvious because of the limitation of actually invested resources. The role of the medical reception-cured measure was more reflected in the reduction of the number of deaths, and the effect of the self-protection measure could be reduced in strict quarantine measure.Conclusions: Results of the study indicated that the quarantine, medical reception-cured and self-protection measures were effective, and mitigating the spread of COVID-19 by achieving strong interventions was necessary. Strict quarantine should be implementing as soon as possible in countries with serious development of COVID-19.
Global Stability of a Mumps Transmission Model with Quarantine Measure
