scholarly journals The risk of threshold responses, tipping points, and cascading failures in pollination systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 3389-3406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya Latty ◽  
Vasilis Dakos

This book gathers together 28 personal stories told by leading thinkers and practitioners in conservation – all of whom have something to say about the uncomfortable tension that arises when data meet dogma. Together, they make a powerful argument for conservation science that measures effectiveness and evolves in response to new data, rather than clinging to its treasured foundational ideas. Several chapters raise doubts about some of conservation’s core tenets, including the notion that habitat fragmentation is bad for biodiversity, biodiversity declines are threatening ecosystem function, non-native species are a net negative for conservation, and fisheries management is failing. Another set of chapters warns of the potent power of conservation narratives: undeniably useful to inspire conservation action, but potentially dangerous in locking in thinking against contrary data. These chapters challenge iconic stories about GM crops, orangutans in oil palm forests, frog feminization, salmon versus dams, rehabilitating oiled otters, and wolves in Yellowstone. A final set of chapters addresses conceptual and methodological approaches such as environmental tipping points, global assessments, payment for ecosystem service programs, and working with corporations. Throughout, examples of confirmation bias emerge—not as dishonesty, but as a human foible that is a challenge for all science, not just conservation science. Graduate students, in particular, will find a wealth of ideas to inspire their own research. Each chapter points to additional data that could help resolve lingering debates and improve conservation effectiveness.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Barnard ◽  
Jenifer E. Dugan ◽  
Henry M. Page ◽  
Nathan J. Wood ◽  
Juliette A. Finzi Hart ◽  
...  

AbstractAs the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.


IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Muhammad Adnan ◽  
Muhammad Gufran Khan ◽  
Arslan Ahmed Amin ◽  
Muhammad Rayyan Fazal ◽  
Wen Shan Tan ◽  
...  

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