Projected Changes to Spring and Summer Precipitation in the Midwestern United States

Spring and summer precipitation are both important factors for agricultural productivity in the Midwest region of the United States. Adequate summer precipitation, particularly in the reproductive and grain fill stages in July and August, is critical to corn and soybean success. Meanwhile, excessive spring precipitation can cause significant planting delays and introduces challenges with weed and pest management, and soil erosion and compaction. However, uncertainty especially in future summer precipitation changes, translates to uncertainties in how the joint distributions of spring and summer precipitation are expected to change by mid- and late-century across the Midwest. This study examines historical and projected changes in the characteristics of spring and summer precipitation in the Midwest using 12 dynamically downscaled simulations under the high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) from the NA-CORDEX project. Historical increases in spring precipitation and precipitation intensity are projected to continue into the mid- and late-century across the region, with strong model agreement. By comparison, projected changes in Midwest summer precipitation are more modest than for spring and have much less model agreement. Despite a projected three- to four-fold increase in the frequency of wet springs by late-century, relative to the model ensemble historical average, the lack of substantial and robust projected change in summer precipitation results in only a small increase in the risk of dry summers following wet springs in the Midwest by mid- and late-century.

Algorithm for developing and implementing enterprise strategy

The article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations and existing approaches to the process of developing an enterprise development strategy. It is established that the procedure of development and implementation of development strategy is a debatable issue among scientists, who determine different methodological approaches to the main stages of strategy development and implementation, components of this process, the relationship and interdependence between them. Based on the research, we propose to identify three stages of the strategy development process, combining 8 phases. The first stage - preparatory or analytical, includes a step-by-step comprehensive strategic analysis of the external and internal environment. The second stage defines the process of strategy development, which includes 4 phases: formulation of the mission; substantiation of strategic goals and determination of strategic gap; development of alternative strategies taking into account the limitations and possible risks, identification of promising and priority areas of development; choice of development strategy. The third stage - the realization of the strategy combines the stages of implementation of the strategy, its evaluation, and adjustment in accordance with unforeseen changes in the external environment. The defined stages of strategy development characterize the current state of the object, the forecasted goals of its development, and actions to achieve them. An important stage in developing a strategy is analytical. It determines the internal state of the system and its necessary changes, in accordance with the projected changes in the external environment, to achieve certain strategic goals. In general, the strategic development of the enterprise is a continuous process of formation and implementation of management decisions aimed at ensuring the strategic dynamism and effective operation in conditions of increased complexity and unpredictability of the business environment.

Simulation of air temperature and their influence on the potential distribution of Myracrodruon urundeuva, Copernicia prunifera and Cereus jamacaru in the Caatinga

Areas in the process of aridification in Caatinga phytogeographic domain in northeastern Brazil increase every year due to human intervention and increase in air temperature. The identification of long-term patterns and air temperature trends in the phytogeographic domain can express climate variability as well as a new phase of adaptation to some plant species. The temperature series from 1951 to 2018 obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction data sets in four conservation areas with native vegetation, located in the North (A1), East (A2), South (A3) and West (A4) regions of this phytogeographic domain, show an increase in temperature between 0.5 and 1.4 °C over the 68-year period with the highest warming occurring in the months of March, April and May. The Maxent model is used to identify the influence of this increase on the presence potential of three species in the Caatinga, Myracrodruon urundeuva (aroeira), Copernicia prunifera (palmeira) and Cereus jamacaru DC (cactus) in the future time interval of 2041 to 2060, considering IPCC projected climate changes. The results show that climate change can lead to a reduction as well as redistribution of the potential areas of occurrence of the three species. Notable changes are: in the case of Carnauba, the high potential area reduces from 25.3% in the present state to 19.6% in 2050, and potential area for Aroeira diminishes in central Bahia and increases in Rio Grande do Norte. The projected changes for all three species are discussed.

Projected Moisture Index (MI) for Tropical Sri Lanka

Atmospheric moisture loading can cause a great impact on the performance and integrity of building exteriors in a tropical climate. Buildings can be highly impacted due to the changing climate conditions over the world. Therefore, it is important to incorporate the projected changes of moisture loads in structural designs under changing climates. The moisture index (MI) is widely used in many countries as a climate-based indicator to guide the building designs for their durability performance. However, this was hardly considered in structural designs in Sri Lanka, even though the country is one of the most affected countries under climate change. Therefore, this study investigates future climate change impacts on the environmental moisture in terms of MI, which can be used in climate zoning, investigating indoor air quality, understanding thermal comfort and energy consumption, etc. The moisture index was found as a function of the drying index (DI) and wetting index (WI) to the whole country for its four rainfall seasons. The temporal and spatial distributions were plotted as MI maps and showcased under two categories; including historical MI maps (1990–2004) and future projected MI maps (2021–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100). Future projected MI maps were constructed using bias-corrected climatic data for two RCP climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results showed that the temporal and spatial variations of MIs are justifiable to the country’s rainfall patterns and seasons. However, notable increases of MIs can be observed for future projected MIs in two seasons, and thus a careful investigation of their impacts should be assessed in terms of the construction of buildings and various agricultural activities. Therefore, the outcome of this research can be essentially used in policy implementation in adapting to the ongoing climate changes in Sri Lanka.

Assessment of Climatic and Anthropogenic Controls on Bridge Deck Drainage and Sediment Removal

Bridge deck drainage is essential to prevent hydroplaning and maintain safety along major roadways. With projected changes in climate, current designs may not be sufficient and a better understanding of the primary controls (climate, bridge deck, and inlet design) on the hydraulic efficiency and sediment removal of drainage systems is needed to maintain public safety. To evaluate the controls on hydraulic drainage efficiency, 576 controlled laboratory experiments were conducted testing grate type (rectangular bar vs. curved vane) and downspout configuration (square vs. circular and 20 cm vs. 25 cm) across a range of flow rates, cross slopes, and longitudinal slopes. An additional 144 sediment erosion experiments were performed to identify controls on the removal of sediment. Hydraulic testing indicated that inflow driven by climate is a primary control on drainage efficiency and spread of water on a roadway. For anthropogenic controls, downspout opening size was found to be the primary control followed by longitudinal slope. Sediment removal results indicated that inflow regime and grate type were the primary controls on the sediment removal rate. Given that inflow, driven by climate, is a control on both hydraulic and sediment removal performance, hydraulic engineers should consider forecasted changes in rainfall intensity in their present-day drainage designs. We provide design guidance and discussion for developing a proactive approach to hydraulic infrastructure in the face of future climate uncertainty.

Dynamical drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models

Blocking over Greenland is known to lead to strong surface impacts, such as ice sheet melting, and a change in its future frequency can have important consequences. However, as previous studies demonstrated, climate models underestimate the blocking frequency for the historical period. Even though some improvements have recently been made, the reasons for the model biases are still unclear. This study investigates whether models with realistic Greenland blocking frequency in winter have a correct representation of its dynamical drivers, most importantly, cyclonic wave breaking (CWB). Because blocking is a rare event and its representation is model-dependent, we use a multi-model large ensemble. We focus on two models that show typical Greenland blocking features, namely a ridge over Greenland and an equatorward-shifted jet over the North Atlantic. ECHAM6.3-LR has the best representation of CWB of the models investigated but only the second best representation of Greenland blocking frequency, which is underestimated by a factor of 2. While MIROC5 has the most realistic Greenland blocking frequency, it also has the largest (negative) CWB frequency bias, suggesting that another mechanism leads to blocking in this model. Composites over Greenland blocking days show that the present and future experiments of each model are very similar to each other in both amplitude and pattern and that there is no significant change in Greenland blocking frequency in the future. However, these projected changes in blocking frequency are highly uncertain as long as the mechanisms leading to blocking formation and maintenance in models remain poorly understood.