Tipping Points: Managing Complex Systems for Economic Development Success

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Peter W. Brunner
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Tipping Points

scholarly journals Evaluating the performance of multivariate indicators of resilience loss

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Els Weinans ◽  
Rick Quax ◽  
Egbert H. van Nes ◽  
Ingrid A. van de Leemput
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Developments ◽  
Resilience Indicators

AbstractVarious complex systems, such as the climate, ecosystems, and physical and mental health can show large shifts in response to small changes in their environment. These ‘tipping points’ are notoriously hard to predict based on trends. However, in the past 20 years several indicators pointing to a loss of resilience have been developed. These indicators use fluctuations in time series to detect critical slowing down preceding a tipping point. Most of the existing indicators are based on models of one-dimensional systems. However, complex systems generally consist of multiple interacting entities. Moreover, because of technological developments and wearables, multivariate time series are becoming increasingly available in different fields of science. In order to apply the framework of resilience indicators to multivariate time series, various extensions have been proposed. Not all multivariate indicators have been tested for the same types of systems and therefore a systematic comparison between the methods is lacking. Here, we evaluate the performance of the different multivariate indicators of resilience loss in different scenarios. We show that there is not one method outperforming the others. Instead, which method is best to use depends on the type of scenario the system is subject to. We propose a set of guidelines to help future users choose which multivariate indicator of resilience is best to use for their particular system.

On Thresholds and Trigger Mechanisms

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oran R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Socioecological Systems ◽  
Governance Systems ◽  
State Changes ◽  
Trigger Mechanisms

Complex systems are subject to changes that are nonlinear, commonly hard to anticipate, often abrupt, and sometimes transformative. In recent years, these phenomena have become a focus of considerable interest among natural scientists who speak about thresholds or boundaries (often characterized as tipping points), trigger mechanisms, and state changes. Similar phenomena occur in social systems involving shifts from peace to war and back, the collapse and replacement of political systems, and fluctuations between periods of economic growth and depression. In this context, it is helpful to differentiate among explosions, cascades, and inflections. The dynamics of such transitions are determined by the fragility of the relevant systems and the intensity of the trigger mechanisms. Building on analyses of tipping points and trigger mechanisms in biophysical systems and socioeconomic systems leads to a consideration of similar phenomena in socioecological systems of the sort that are central to the pursuit of sustainability in the Anthropocene. In considering the role of governance in such settings, it is important to bear in mind that governance systems, too, are complex and dynamic.

scholarly journals Detecting and distinguishing tipping points using spectral early warning signals

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (170) ◽  
pp. 20200482
Author(s):  
T. M. Bury ◽  
C. T. Bauch ◽  
M. Anand
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Dynamical Regime ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Warning Signals ◽  
Early Warning Signals ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Fold Bifurcation ◽  
Characteristic Signal

Theory and observation tell us that many complex systems exhibit tipping points—thresholds involving an abrupt and irreversible transition to a contrasting dynamical regime. Such events are commonly referred to as critical transitions. Current research seeks to develop early warning signals (EWS) of critical transitions that could help prevent undesirable events such as ecosystem collapse. However, conventional EWS do not indicate the type of transition, since they are based on the generic phenomena of critical slowing down. For instance, they may fail to distinguish the onset of oscillations (e.g. Hopf bifurcation) from a transition to a distant attractor (e.g. Fold bifurcation). Moreover, conventional EWS are less reliable in systems with density-dependent noise. Other EWS based on the power spectrum (spectral EWS) have been proposed, but they rely upon spectral reddening, which does not occur prior to critical transitions with an oscillatory component. Here, we use Ornstein–Uhlenbeck theory to derive analytic approximations for EWS prior to each type of local bifurcation, thereby creating new spectral EWS that provide greater sensitivity to transition proximity; higher robustness to density-dependent noise and bifurcation type; and clues to the type of approaching transition. We demonstrate the advantage of applying these spectral EWS in concert with conventional EWS using a population model, and show that they provide a characteristic signal prior to two different Hopf bifurcations in data from a predator–prey chemostat experiment. The ability to better infer and differentiate the nature of upcoming transitions in complex systems will help humanity manage critical transitions in the Anthropocene Era.

scholarly journals Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. e2017989118
Author(s):  
Johannes Lohmann ◽  
Peter D. Ditlevsen
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Parameter Change ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Critical Thresholds

Central elements of the climate system are at risk for crossing critical thresholds (so-called tipping points) due to future greenhouse gas emissions, leading to an abrupt transition to a qualitatively different climate with potentially catastrophic consequences. Tipping points are often associated with bifurcations, where a previously stable system state loses stability when a system parameter is increased above a well-defined critical value. However, in some cases such transitions can occur even before a parameter threshold is crossed, given that the parameter change is fast enough. It is not known whether this is the case in high-dimensional, complex systems like a state-of-the-art climate model or the real climate system. Using a global ocean model subject to freshwater forcing, we show that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can indeed be induced even by small-amplitude changes in the forcing, if the rate of change is fast enough. Identifying the location of critical thresholds in climate subsystems by slowly changing system parameters has been a core focus in assessing risks of abrupt climate change. This study suggests that such thresholds might not be relevant in practice, if parameter changes are not slow. Furthermore, we show that due to the chaotic dynamics of complex systems there is no well-defined critical rate of parameter change, which severely limits the predictability of the qualitative long-term behavior. The results show that the safe operating space of elements of the Earth system with respect to future emissions might be smaller than previously thought.

scholarly journals SASSEN, SASKIA (2010). Territorio, autoridad y derechos: de los ensamblajes medievales a los enssamblajes globales, madrid: katz

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alena Profit
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
General Question ◽  
Nation State ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Historical Approach ◽  
Key Word ◽  
The Way

This review analyzes Saskia Sassen’s book “Territorio, autoridad y derechos: De los ensamblajes medievales a los ensamblajes globales”. The general question the book elaborates onis: How to study and theorize foundational transformations in and of complex systems? Globalization has become a veritable key word of our time, but its relation to the processes of denationalization within the nation-state as principal trigger of this process remains undertheorized. Sassen’s argument concentrates on the idea that the national paves the way for the global. By analyzing the three socio-political components territory authority and rights, through the analytical categories tipping points, capabilities and organizing logics, the sociologist follows their changes and interactions in three historical eras, the medieval, the national and the global realm. Given the complex frameworks the transformations operate in, it is pointed out that the interdependencies of the denationalization processes require a historical approach to overcome one-sided analytical perspectives.keywords: assemblages, denationalization, globalization, nation-state---Esta resenha analisa o livro de Saskia Sassen "Territorio, autoridad y derechos de los: ensamblajes Medievales a los ensamblajes Globales". A questão geral do livro elabora onis: Como estudar e teorizar as transformações fundamentais dentro e de sistemas complexos? A globalização tornou-se verdadeira palavra-chave do nosso tempo, mas sua relação com os processos de desnacionalização dentro do Estado-nação, como o principal gatilho desse processo, permanece subteorizada. O argumento de Sassen concentra-se na idéia de que o nacional prepara o caminho para o global. Ao analisar os três componentes sócio-políticos, a autoridade, o território, e os direitos através dos "tipping points" das categorias analíticas, das capacidades e organizações lógicas, o sociólogo segue suas mudanças e interações em três épocas históricas, o medieval, o nacional e o domínio global. Dadas as estruturas complexas em que as transformações operam, salienta-se que as interdependências dos processos de desnacionalização exigem uma abordagem histórica para superar perspectivas analíticas unilaterais.Palavras-chave: agenciamentos, desnacionalização, a globalização, Estado-nação

scholarly journals Social tipping points in animal societies

2018 ◽  
Vol 285 (1887) ◽  
pp. 20181282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan N. Pruitt ◽  
Andrew Berdahl ◽  
Christina Riehl ◽  
Noa Pinter-Wollman ◽  
Holly V. Moeller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Ecosystem Ecology ◽  
Behavioural Ecology ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Biological Organization ◽  
Disciplinary Boundaries ◽  
Animal Societies

Animal social groups are complex systems that are likely to exhibit tipping points—which are defined as drastic shifts in the dynamics of systems that arise from small changes in environmental conditions—yet this concept has not been carefully applied to these systems. Here, we summarize the concepts behind tipping points and describe instances in which they are likely to occur in animal societies. We also offer ways in which the study of social tipping points can open up new lines of inquiry in behavioural ecology and generate novel questions, methods, and approaches in animal behaviour and other fields, including community and ecosystem ecology. While some behaviours of living systems are hard to predict, we argue that probing tipping points across animal societies and across tiers of biological organization—populations, communities, ecosystems—may help to reveal principles that transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries.

scholarly journals MANAGEMENT OF SUSTAINABLE MINING OF COAL RESOURCES IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
pp. 37-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Volkov ◽  
L. Horoshkova ◽  
Y. Khlobystov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Polynomial Function ◽  
Mineral Deposits ◽  
Sustainable Mining ◽  
Coal Resources ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Sustainable Exploitation ◽  
Cyclical Pattern

The dynamics of coal resources mining in Ukraine are analyzed in the article. It is proved that there were indices fluctuations, i.e. volumes of extraction, and growth rates during 10 years. The approximation of growth rates of coal mining resources by polynomial function using the trend line is made. It is determined that studied indices fluctuation have cyclical pattern, correlate to each other and depend on country`s economic and political situation. It is proposed to make forecasts of the extraction volumes based on national cyclical economic development. It is proved that balanced mining should solve the problem of mineral deposits sustainable exploitation. It is proposed to use the patent-protected author's methodology to forecast the development of complex systems to manage sustainable mining of coal resources in Ukraine. The developed model will allow managing volumes of extraction of technologically related minerals in correlation with the volumes of exploitation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document