Forecasting Short-Term Oil Price with a Generalised Pattern Matching Model Based on Empirical Genetic Algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 1151-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu-Tao Zhao ◽  
Guan-Rong Zeng ◽  
Ling-Yun He ◽  
Ya Meng
2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 74-82
Author(s):  
Zeng Wei Zheng ◽  
Yuan Yi Chen ◽  
Xiao Wei Zhou ◽  
Mei Mei Huo ◽  
Bo Zhao ◽  
...  

The integration between photovoltaic systems and tradition grid have a lot of challenges. To accurately predict is a key to solve these challenges. Due to complex, non-linear and non-stationary characteristics, it is difficult to accurately predict the power of photovoltaic systems. In this paper, a short-term prediction model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD)and back propagation neural network(BPNN) was constructed, and use genetic algorithm as the learn algorithm of BPNN. The power data after pre-processing is decomposed into several components, then using prediction model based on BPNN and genetic algorithm to predict each component, and all the component prediction values were aggregated to obtain the ultimate predicted result. The simulation shows the purposed prediction model has higher prediction precision compare with traditional neural network prediction method and it is an effective prediction method of photovoltaic systems.


Author(s):  
Jianhua wang ◽  
Junhe Liu ◽  
Feng Lin ◽  
Jing Zhao ◽  
Yongbing Long ◽  
...  

Quickly matching the related primitive events for multiple complex events from the massive event streams usually faces with a great challenge due to the single-pattern characteristics of the existing complex event matching models. Aiming to solve the problem, a multiple-pattern complex event matching model based on merge sharing is proposed in this paper. The achievement of the paper lies in the fact that a multiple-pattern complex event matching model based on merge sharing is presented to successfully realize the quick matching of related primitive events for multiple complex events from the massive event streams. Specifically, in our scheme, we successfully use merge sharing technology to merge all the same prefixes, suffixes or subpatterns existing in single-pattern matching models into shared ones and to construct a multiple-pattern complex event matching model. As a result, our proposed matching model in this paper can effectively solve the above problem. The experimental results show that our proposed matching model in this paper outperforms the existing single-pattern matching models in model construction and related events matching for massive event streams.


2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 110-122
Author(s):  
Johnson Clement Madathil ◽  
Velmurugan P. S

Crude oil is known to have an impact on people’s life of both producers and consumers of crude oil countries. A producer country’s socio-political impact will be different from a consumer country’s socio-political impact. This paper aims to show that crude oil price has a socio-political impact on global countries through descriptive analysis. The study found that there were similarities in the movement of crude oil price and change in GDP of both India and United States and further Russia and Venezuela have had crude oil impact on their respective GDP’s, which has made them take policy reforms. The paper identifies changes in the policy framework due to influence of crude oil price and eventual changes in existing socio-political environment. Taking oil producing countries such as Russia and Venezuela as examples, this paper suggests that policy reforms are the key to having a stable socio-political environment. Russia shows us that having a flexible monetary policy can keep the budget dependence on crude oil reduced in the short term. On the other hand, for oil consuming countries, having a stable supply and moving to new energy sources is the key to tackle the influence of crude oil price on the socio-political environment of global countries.


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