Application of the FEMA-P58 methodology for regional earthquake loss prediction

Major earthquakes can cause extensive damage to buildings and alter both the natural and built environments. Accurately estimating the financial impact from these events is complex, and the damage is not always visible to the naked eye. PACT, SLAT, and HAZUS are some of the computer-based tools designed to predict probable damage before an earthquake. However, there are no identifiable models built for post-earthquake use. This paper focuses on verifying the significance and usage of variables that specifically need to be considered for the post-earthquake cost estimation of earthquake damage repair work (CEEDRW). The research was conducted using a questionnaire survey involving 92 participants who have experience in cost estimating earthquake damage repair work in New Zealand. The Weighted Average, Relative Importance Index (RII), and Exploratory Factor Analysis were used to analyse the data. The research verified that eleven major variables that are significant to the CEEDRW and should be incorporated to cost estimation models. Verified variables can be used to develop a post-earthquake repair cost estimation tool and can be used to improve the pre-earthquake loss prediction tools.

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Risk assessment study of fire following an earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-14-891-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 891-900 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

J. Li ◽

Y. Wang ◽

H. Chen ◽

L. Lin

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

High Risk ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Assessment Method ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Loss Prediction ◽

Petrochemical Enterprise ◽

Earthquake Loss

Abstract. After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemical enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following an earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following an earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprise earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

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Prediction of insurance loss from earthquakes

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.30.1.40-45 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 30 (1) ◽

pp. 40-45

Author(s):

G. R. Walker

Keyword(s):

Information Technology ◽

Natural Hazards ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Catastrophe Insurance ◽

Loss Prediction ◽

Earthquake Loss

This paper outlines the nature of catastrophe insurance and how developments in information technology are providing tools which overcome many of the problems associated historically with estimating the risk of insurance loss from major natural hazards. A brief description of earthquake loss prediction models is presented, some of their current shortcomings highlighted, and the major priorities for research discussed.

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Risk assessment study of fire following earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-1-1775-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 1775-1798

Author(s):

J. Li ◽

Y. Wang ◽

H. Chen ◽

L. Lin

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

High Risk ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Assessment Method ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Loss Prediction ◽

Earthquake Loss ◽

Fire Following Earthquake

Abstract. After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemistry enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprises earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

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