Multivariate analysis for medium- and long-range forecasting of Nile River flow to mitigate drought and flood risks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossam M. Ahmed ◽  
Ayman G. Awadallah ◽  
Alaa El-Din M. El-Zawahry ◽  
Khaled H. Hamed
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 759-781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadush K. Meresa ◽  
Mulusew T. Gatachew

Abstract This paper aims to study climate change impact on the hydrological extremes and projected precipitation extremes in far future (2071–2100) period in the Upper Blue Nile River basin (UBNRB). The changes in precipitation extremes were derived from the most recent AFROCORDEX climate data base projection scenarios compared to the reference period (1971–2000). The climate change impacts on the hydrological extremes were evaluated using three conceptual hydrological models: GR4 J, HBV, and HMETS; and two objective functions: NSE and LogNSE. These hydrological models are calibrated and validated in the periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2010, respectively. The results indicate that the wet/dry spell will significantly decrease/increase due to climate change in some sites of the region, while in others, there is increase/decrease in wet/dry spell but not significantly, respectively. The extreme river flow will be less attenuated and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence than at present. Low flows are projected to increase most prominently for lowland sites, due to the combined effects of projected decreases in Belg and Bega precipitation, and projected increases in evapotranspiration that will reduce residual soil moisture in Bega and Belg seasons.


1984 ◽  
Vol 1 (19) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Inman ◽  
Scott A. Jenkins

Man's intervention with coastal processes takes many forms. However, the most serious large scale, long term coastal erosion results from the interception by dams of rivers supplying sediment to the coast. This loss of sediment may have catastrophic effects along coasts where streams discharge directly into coastal waters. The Nile littoral cell is an impressive example of the effect of dams on coastal erosion. The Nile littoral cell is located in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea and extends 700 km from Alexandria, Egypt in the south to Akko, Israel in the north. The sediment load from the Nile River was deposited along the submerged portion of the delta, where it was sorted and transported to the east by the prevailing waves and by currents of the counterclockwise east Mediterranean gyre that commonly flows at about 50 cm sec over the delta. Prior to 1964, the turbid plume of the flood waters of the Nile River could be traced along the Mediterranean coast for over 700 km to the shores of Lebanon. Fine silt and clay sized material were carried easterly and into deeper water, while sand is carried easterly along the shelf and shore as far as Haifa Bay. Until 1964, the major sediment source of the littoral cell was the Nile River. Construction of the High Aswan Dam, which began filling in 1964, has resulted in a near absence of Nile River flow into the Mediterranean and a corresponding complete loss of the Nile River as a source of nutrients to coastal waters, and as an active sediment source for the delta and the coastline of the Nile littoral cell. As a result, the Nile Delta is now subject to severe erosion in a number of localities.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanhong Wu

In this paper, we consider an adaptive sequential CUSUM procedure in an exponential family where the change-point and post-change parameters are estimated adaptively. It is shown that the adaptive CUSUM procedure is efficient at the first order. The conditional biases of the estimation for the change-point and post-change parameter are studied. Comparison with the classical CUSUM procedure in the normal case is made. Nile river flow and average global temperature data sets are used for demonstration.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 284-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Al-Zu`bi ◽  
A. Sheta ◽  
J. Al-Zu`bi

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 725-733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichi Unami ◽  
Felix Kofi Abagale ◽  
Macarius Yangyuoru ◽  
Abul Hasan M. Badiul Alam ◽  
Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic

2014 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 1663-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soojun Kim ◽  
Jaewon Kwak ◽  
Hui Seong Noh ◽  
Hung Soo Kim

2005 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 1531-1536
Author(s):  
Takayuki HAYAKAWA ◽  
Masafumi FUJITA ◽  
Hirokazu HAGA ◽  
Yasushi SAKAMOTO

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 1676-1685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenping He ◽  
Shanshan Zhao ◽  
Qunqun Liu ◽  
Yundi Jiang ◽  
Beisheng Deng

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