An AI/ML-Based Strategy for Disaster Response and Evacuation of Victims in Aged Care Facilities in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley: A Perspective

The Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, Australia’s longest coastal catchment, is spanned by a river system of more than 470 km, that runs from Goulburn to Broken Bay, covering a total area of over 2.2 million hectares. This region has remained prone to flood events, with considerable mortalities, economic impacts and infrastructural losses occurring quite regularly. The topography, naturally variable climatic conditions and the ‘bathtub’ effect in the region are responsible for the frequent flood events. In response, the Government at the national/federal, state and local level has focused on the design of efficient flood risk management strategies with appropriate evacuation plans for vulnerable communities from hospitals, schools, childcare and aged care facilities during a flood event. Despite these overarching plans, specialized response and evacuation plans for aged care facilities are critical to reducing the loss incurred by flood events in the region. This is the focus of this present paper, which reviews the history of flood events and responses to them, before examining the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques during flood events to overcome the flood risks. An early flood warning system, based on AI/Machine Learning (ML) strategy is being suggested for a timely decision, enhanced disaster prediction, assessment and response necessary to overcome the flood risks associated with aged care facilities within the Hawkesbury-Nepean region. A framework entailing AI/ML methods for identifying the safest route to the destination using UAV and path planning has been proposed for timely disaster response and evacuation of the residents of aged care facilities.

Contribution of Soil Physical Propreties in The Assessment of Flood Risks in Tropical Areas. Case of The Mbo Plain

Flooding occurs when water is in excess and can no longer be evacuated normally. The nature of the soil has been identified as one of the major causes of flooding, hence this study aimed is to show the influence of the physico-chemical properties of the soil on the recurrence of flooding in the Mbo plain. Four soil profiles were carried out on the alluviums according to the altitudes. These profiles were described and undisturbed soil samples were taken. Then, measurements of the infiltration rate of water in the soil by the Porchet method were carried out in sixteen sites. Finally, soil samples taken by auger and core sampling were studied in the laboratory. Physico-chemical parameters such as grain size, porosity, moisture, pH, compactness and organic matter were determined. Infiltration tests carried out in situ using the Porchet method revealed a hydraulic conductivity between 10−5 and 10−7 m/s, characteristic of a semi-permeable soil. This low value of permeability results from the morpho-structural arrangement and the chemical composition of the soils of the plain. These soils are hydromorphic, which means that they are constantly flooded and temporarily waterlogged. They are more or less sandy-clay on the surface, and very clayey at depth, generally from 25 cm. The very clayey soils at the base considerably slow down infiltration and act as a real barrier layer that prevents water from infiltrating, resulting to intense runoff. These soils are very porous and compact with a fairly high water content of up to 71%. This work allows us to conclude on the role of intrinsic soil properties on the genesis of floods in lowland areas. As in many plains in Africa and in the world, the nature of the soil in the Mbo plain is a natural predisposing factor to flood risks. The methods used can be applied in areas with the same characteristics as the Mbo Plain.

A Coastal Flood Early-Warning System Based on Offshore Sea State Forecasts and Artificial Neural Networks

An integrated methodological approach to the development of a coastal flood early-warning system is presented in this paper to improve societal preparedness for coastal flood events. The approach consists of two frameworks, namely the Hindcast Framework and the Forecast Framework. The aim of the former is to implement a suite of high-credibility numerical models and validate them according to past flooding events, while the latter takes advantage of these validated models and runs a plethora of scenarios representing distinct sea-state events to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that is capable of predicting the impending coastal flood risks. The proposed approach was applied in the flood-prone coastal area of Rethymno in the Island of Crete in Greece. The performance of the developed ANN is good, given the complexity of the problem, accurately predicting the targeted coastal flood risks. It is capable of predicting such risks without requiring time-consuming numerical simulations; the ANN only requires the offshore wave characteristics (height, period and direction) and sea-water-level elevation, which can be obtained from open databases. The generic nature of the proposed methodological approach allows its application in numerous coastal regions.

Barriers and Drivers for Mainstreaming Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Risks: The Case of South Korea

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are seen as a promising adaptation measure that sustainably deals with diverse societal challenges, while simultaneously delivering multiple benefits. Nature-based solutions have been highlighted as a resilient and sustainable means of mitigating floods and other hazards globally. This study examined diverging conceptualizations of NBS, as well as the attitudinal (for example, emotions and beliefs) and contextual (for example, legal and political aspects) barriers and drivers of NBS for flood risks in South Korea. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 11 experts and focused on the topic of flood risk measures and NBS case studies. The analysis found 11 barriers and five drivers in the attitudinal domain, and 13 barriers and two drivers in the contextual domain. Most experts see direct monetary benefits as an important attitudinal factor for the public. Meanwhile, the cost-effectiveness of NBS and their capacity to cope with flood risks were deemed influential factors that could lead decision makers to opt for NBS. Among the contextual factors, insufficient systems to integrate NBS in practice and the ideologicalization of NBS policy were found to be peculiar barriers, which hinder consistent realization of initiatives and a long-term national plan for NBS. Understanding the barriers and drivers related to the mainstreaming of NBS is critical if we are to make the most of such solutions for society and nature. It is also essential that we have a shared definition, expectation, and vision of NBS.

Tree Rings Reveal a 700-Year Record of Flooding in Bangladesh

Trees tell of a wetter past along the Brahmaputra River and, combined with climate modeling, suggest heightened future flood risks in one of the world’s most densely populated areas.

Flood Risk Communication Using ArcGIS StoryMaps

In Canada, flooding is the most common and costly natural hazard. Flooding events significantly impact communities, damage infrastructures and threaten public security. Communication, as part of a flood risk management strategy, is an essential means of countering these threats. It is therefore important to develop new and innovative tools to communicate the flood risk with citizens. From this perspective, the use of story maps can be very effectively implemented for a broad audience, particularly to stakeholders. This paper details how an interactive web-based story map was set up to communicate current and future flood risks in the Petite-Nation River watershed, Quebec (Canada). This web technology application combines informative texts and interactive maps on current and future flood risks in the Petite-Nation River watershed. Flood risk and climate maps were generated using the GARI tool, implemented using a geographic information system (GIS) supported by ArcGIS Online (Esri). Three climate change scenarios developed by the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Quebec were used to visualize potential future impacts. This study concluded that our story map is an efficient flood hazard communication tool. The assets of this interactive web mapping tool are numerous, namely user-friendly mapping, use and interaction, and customizable displays.

Flood-risk vulnerabilities of sanitation facilities in urban informal settlements: Lessons from Kisumu City, Kenya

Flood disasters have increased in frequency and severity over the recent decades causing untold destruction to vulnerable physical infrastructure such as sanitation facilities. Factors including construction quality, design, siting, and users’ behaviour further exacerbate the vulnerability of facilities. Despite this reality, very little has been done to document the extent of flood risk facing such facilities in the pro-poor urban informal settlements in developing countries. This study assessed the flood risks of vulnerable sanitation facilities in the urban informal settlements of Kisumu city, Kenya. The methodology involved assessment of sanitation facilities’ flood vulnerabilities and assessment of flood risk models. Flood risk was assessed by estimating runoff from yearly rainfall totals and also by calculating storm return period and probability of exceedance. Vulnerability assessment for each sanitation facility was done by scoring against flood risk indicators ordered by weighted rank. The study observed that majority sanitation facilities in the urban informal settlements were considered “highly vulnerable” (57%). Flood risk analysis predicted growing vulnerability due to shorter storm return periods, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. It was established that over 20% of all rainfall events in the 50-year timeline had a higher than 80% probability of exceedance rainfall, signifying higher storm risks. Additionally, the study showed that between 44% of rainfall received in the study area could translate to runoff, in the near future, further compounding flood risk predictions. With key informal settlements such as Nyalenda and Manyatta facing stronger future flood risks, general public health may be threatened, leading to increased social and economic instability on families and households. The study recommends adherence to improved toilet standards of construction and toilet-raising as methods of improving flood risk resilience and adaptation.